Much like Welsh fans are hopeful of a first overseas win for
a long time against Australia, England fans travel much more in expectation of
a strong showing rather than just hoping for the best against South Africa
today, with both teams’ road to the 2015 World Cup starting today.
After a dreadful World Cup, England found a new lease of
life under Stuart Lancaster in the 6 Nations, winning impressively against
Ireland and in France either side of defeats to Grand Slam winners Wales, prompting
many to look forward to a new era of young talent. With the honeymoon period that Lancaster enjoyed
now over following his good start, the attentions now turn towards not only cementing
that progress overseas, but also the IRB rankings, which play a key part in the
seedings. Lancaster's side need to come away with at least one win out of the
three Tests to boost their hopes of avoiding the big southern hemisphere trio
on their home turf come the 2015 World Cup.
Theoretically their best chance of winning is today; a game
at sea level (something highlighted by John Smit in the press this week) against
a squad that has played Super Rugby matches the previous week (a bruising
Lions/Sharks encounter, of all the games they could have wished for just a week
before) with a new head coach in place and uncapped locks giving them as many advantages
as they could wish for, adding to the fact that South Africa’s record at Durban
(following cricket) isn’t as fearsome as elsewhere; South Africa have lost 3 of
their last 6 test matches in Durban including a 9-14 defeat to Australia in the
Tri Nations a year ago. South Africa have also had only had five days of
training together, having not played since losing to Australia in the World Cup
quarter-finals in October. England’s excellent preparations – they’ve been
there for around two weeks, acclimatizing nicely and having more time to get
over a bruising end of season Premiership final – could also prove crucial,
with a side that could be seen as inexperience (only 187 caps between them in
the test XI) knowing eachother well from club and international rugby.
South Africa themselves having moving onto do with a view to
the next World Cup. Over the past 6 years they’ve had a magnificent side which
has brought much magical moment for Springboks supporters, and their side
should have beaten Australia in the quarterfinals of the World Cup, but when
the enigmatic Peter De Villers left there was the feeling this was the end of
an era and that feeling’s been very much replicated with the significant
changes that have been made to the team since.
New captain Jean De Villers – one of the last of the old
guard with only Bryan Habana having more caps to his name – will lead a much
changed and newer side
Gone are the feared and crushing duo of Victor Matfield (retired)
and Bakkies Botha (based with Toulon, who have reached the final of the Top 14
in France) in the second row, although Eben Etzebeth has been compared to the
above duo by impressed onlookers. That said, this is his test debut and with
that brings certain amounts of unpredictability.
Flanker is also an area where South Africa look more
vulnerable than before, with the legendary Henrich Burssow absent and usual
replacements Schalk Burger and Juan Smith also unavailable. Another highly
rated debutant in Sharks flanker George Cotezee (pictured) steps forward but he’s been
given a nightmare matchup against Harlequins Chris Robshaw, who was good during
the 6 Nations but even better during the latter stages of the Premiership.
Positives for the home side come in the shape of the Scrum-half-come-wing
Francois Hougaard, while JP Pietersen and Bryan Habana will charge at Ben Foden
all day long on the wing, along with being one of the most fearsome wide duos
in the world game, while there are few fly halves in the class of Morne Steyn,
who leads the Super 15 points scoring charts with an insane 188 points. Indeed
with such attacking class in the side you’d want to think that South Africa
would play plenty of running rugby, although a Bulls heavy squad has led many
to believe that the name of the game will be kick and chase, something which
Stuart Lancaster has moved to counter aggressively by pushing the full-back Ben
Foden out to the left wing and bringing in Mike Brown at No15; Both players
have an adept kicking game to counter the hosts strengths while a midfield trio
that includes Brad Barritt and Manu Tuilagi will be ready to stand up to battering. It promises to be an absolute
belter of a clash, and while South Africa can kick start their road to the next
World Cup with a win, it’ll be a very narrow one, if at all.
For more value, one might want to consider the first score
to be a South African penalty. In three of the last 9 games that’s been the
case and with the new coach evidently not changing tactics, it seems a fair
play at 15/8.
Advice
2 pts South Africa to win by 1-12 points (17/10 Hills)
1 pt South Africa to win by 1-5 points (11/2 Hills)
1 pt penalty 1st scoring play (15/8 general)
Excellent analysis. And top tipping :-)
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