Tuesday 30 April 2013

Champions League Semi Final - Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund


There have been some great comebacks in the Champions League knockout stages of recent years but anything but an all German final at Wembley after last week’s thrashing looks to be impossible and anything but defeat at the semi final stage for the third successive season - Only one team has ever managed to overturn a 4-1 first-leg deficit in the Champions League, Deportivo La Coruna beating AC Milan 4-0 in 2004 - would be a tremendous surprise.


Madrid will be more excited than this if they can
do the impossible 
Unlike compatriots Barcelona, Madrid at leave have the advantage of an away goal for their efforts but that goes no way to explaining why they’re as short at 3/1 to qualify. Madrid do boast a vey strong home record - they have won 14 out of 17 recent home games in Europe, and ten of those victories were by at least a three-goal margin  - but anyone allowing themselves to be swayed by that fact should remember that in their group stage meeting Dortmund were very unlucky not to win, Madrid having been saved by Ozil’s superb late equaliser in the 89th minute.  


 With so much on the line, the market makes a home success 4/7 – it’s generally 1/2 elsehwhere - but even then there are qualms to be had with that price given how convincingly Dortmund outplayed them last week and also their away performances this season.


Much of that came down to Sami Khedira’s dreadful performance in midfield – he’s rightfully dropped in favour of Luka Modric, while Mezut Ozil’s movement back to playing off the striker will surely aid Madrid’s cause – but the best bet looks to be backing over 3.5 goals even at the short prices offered here. Two of their three games this season have reached that mark, while these two sides are all about goals, with 19 of Madrid’s 33 wins this season coming without a clean sheet.

6/4 that Madrid win without the clean sheet is tempting, but Dortmund have conceded 36 goals in the Bundlesliga this season and Madrid’s stats aren’t that much better, so the 5/6 on 4 or more looks the best option.


Advice

1 pt Over 3.5 goals (5/6 general) 

Ten To Follow 2013


The jumps season ended properly with a fantastic Punchestown last week – very much the end of a golden 40 day period in racing for those who enjoy jumping - and we can now look forward to the flat fully, despite what the fixture list might say.


We’ll all have our memories from the last jumping season, a clean Grand National and Zarkandar’s memorable Aintree triumph being my main memories, but after the ‘road to Cheltenham’ theme dominating the whole of the winter until the day came around, the helter skelter brilliance of the flat, with barely a week coming without a big event to look forward to and the bonus of racing from all around the globe as well, is a welcome sight.


It’s on that note that we actually turn towards the Ten To Follow, with official list suggestions being combined with a list of the horses who we’re most looking forward to. As far as winning the competition is concerned, it’s the bonus races – giving an extra 25 points to the winner and 12 to the runner up - that will make all the difference, with seven of those events being exclusively for three year olds, starting with the Guineas at Newmarket.


From a competition point of view, the key to getting a fast start is to have horses capable of having a serious crack at both the Guineas and Oaks/Derby, with the proviso that if this year’s 3yo crop is upto scratch – and it won’t need to be great to better last year’s classic generation – they can go onto score highly against their elders.


When winning the slowly run Champagne Stakes last year I thought for all the world that Toronado would make a great Derby horse, but his Craven demolition – when brushing aside two Group class horses with strong form - told us that in he has the speed to win a Guineas in no uncertain terms and he holds a rock solid chance in the Newmarket classic next week, and with a pedigree that suggests he’ll be more than comfortable at 1m4f – he’s by High Chaprral with his damsiire having been placed in a Haskell Invitational – he looks to be a no brainer, and indeed, an attractive Derby bet pre Guineas at 8/1.


Many don’t see Dawn Approach as a Derby horse thanks to a largely speed oriented female breeding, but the way he did all his best work at the end of the National and especially Dewhurst Stakes last year suggests that he will only improve for the step up to a mile on Saturday and I’d be surprised if he couldn’t get 1m2f later in the season. In any case, given the relatively poor standard of last year’s colts, there should be plenty of milling opportunities for him and he looks well worth including.


When it comes to the 1,000 Guineas, I have had only one horse in mind for more than a year and there’s nothing not to like about French charge What A Name, who found only Olympic Glory too good in ground that blunted her speed in the Prix Jean Luc Jardere. On that form she would be a realistic 2,000 Guineas contender and near the top of last season’s 2yo crop of colts, yet she can still be backed at 11/2 given the impressive trial win of Hot Snap in the Nell Gwyn last week. With the Coronation Stakes on the agenda after this, the female milling route looks potentially lucrative this year, and in the case of Hot Snap, the Oaks is deifnetely an option given her breeding – she is a half sister to midday and out of Lingfield Oaks Trial runner-up Midsummer – while if she does win the Guineas as is widely expected, then it would be no surprise to see her going for the Nassau, as Midday did in her 3yo season.


With the Irish Derby as a bonus race, it really makes sense to go for a horse that is likely to go straight onto the Curragh after Epsom. The disrupted preparation that Kingsbarns has suffered is a negative, but by all accounts he should be ready for a major derby trial and his Racing Post trophy run – with three group winners well beaten – is the best piece of Derby form seen so far. It’s taking a major risk that he won’t be ready with no end of candidates swarming around to pick up the pieces – remember there are only 5 weeks until Epsom - but the rewards could be massive if he recovers from his problems.


With last year’s older crop looking vulnerable, Battle Of Marengo is added to the piece as a backup for Kingsbairns. Unlike some in the ante post derby picture, Epsom has been his target for a long time now and his easy defeat of Sugar Boy giving him a hefty 5lbs in testing ground now looks all the better since that one drew well clear with two other Irish colts in the Bet365 classic trial at Sandown. He’ll do much better for that run and promises to thrive for the step up to 1m4f, so makes appeal as a ‘banker’ for the middle distance 3yo scene with the potential bonus of all aged races like the King George if he’s given the chance, and the option of the St Leger if he’s not quite upto Epsom as well, just in case.



It sounds foolish not to put the world’s best horse - and in the aftermath of Frankel’s retirement I have no problem with applying that title to Cirrus Des Aigles – but it’s impossible to know if he will come for enough of the bonus races apart from the Champion Stakes and maybe the Princes Of Wales, so he just misses the cut. He should still be worth following over here on a betting basis.


Moving onto the older horses, we’ll focus on the 5yos over last year’s classic crop, who were soundly beaten at every single opportunity in the clash against their elders last season. St Nicholas Abbey has been world class for a good while now on the figures and in beating Gentildonna with relative ease in the Sheema Classic, may have run to a new career best in Dubai and has realistic claims of winning both the Coronation Cup and King George Stakes at least before the year is out.

Camelot was a disappointment at the end of last season and his crop has been exposed as weak - the victory of Pastorious in the Ganay aside - but he makes much appeal to many given his obvious versatility – he can go 1m4f and beyond but will be comfortable over 1m2f, which is where Coolmore will look to campaign him centrally for breeding purposes – and even though his bubble was burst to a significant point last year in a weak 3yo crop, he’s simply going for too many of the bonus races – the Prince of Wales, Eclipse, International, Irish Champion, and potentially Champion Stakes, to leave him out of the portfolio. There’s the danger that he could be a disappointment but at the same time he can’t be judged on his Arc effort and for most of last season, had justified his reputation. Due to the potential high scoring nature of his races, he also gets the gold star. 

Coming to the older fillies, It is a travesty that The Fugue didn’t land at least one more Group 1 last season, having gotten no luck in the Oaks or the Breeders’ Cup, but this season should see her make handsome amends and the Nassau is a prime target while it wouldn’t surprise to see her venture out and take on the colts at some time; She is good enough to be successful at both.


With nearly every stayer listed prominently for the Ascot Gold Cup – the only bonus race for stayers apart from the St Leger - having disappointed, we’ll leave out that bunch, and anyone looking to cast out the net should go for a sprinter with a specialist trip of 6 furlongs as the Golden Jubilee, July Cup and Nunthorpe are all classed as bonus races.


Shea Shea’s performance in Dubai looks to be the best effort seen from a sprinter so far this year and he would be of major interest if the King’s Stand was a bonus event, but it’s not this season and he’s not a definite to go for the double should he win, stay on until July or head for the Nunthorpe. Deacon Blues could be the horse to do such a double, but he’s not run since October 2011, while Mince has been a roll for a year and could well still have more to come, but is staking a serious step up in class. In the end, the best choice could well be either of last year’s best three year olds – Roshdu Queen, who went very well for 6 furlongs in the Fred Darling until the tank went, and Reckless Abandon, who won four Group races, two of them at the highest level. If training on, he has the strongest form claims of any British sprinter bar Society Rock, who could and should have done better when attempting the big double last year having missed the break and then found deep ground too much for him in the July Cup.


Ten To Follow Choices

Toronado

Dawn Approach

What A Name

Hot Snap

Kingsbarns

Battle Of Marengo

St Nicolas Abbey

Camelot

The Fugue

Reckless Abandon


Ante Post Advice

1 pt each/way Toronado, Derby, (8/1 Bolyesports, Ladbrokes)

1 pt each/way Battle of Marengo, Derby (7/1 general)

Monday 29 April 2013

The Lions 2013: Who, where, and why???


Tomorrow at 11AM, years (literally) of debate will end and we will finally find out the Lions squad. With less than 24 hours to go, the Vic Page takes and advance preview and prediction of the men set to go, with each one profiled and reasoned for. Enjoy or despair, and send any comments you have to @KeejayOV on Twitter


Full-backs:

Leigh Halfpenny (Wal) – One of the most reliable players in world rugby, and an absolute rock in the two 6 Nations’ successes for Wales. While he doesn’t quite boast the raw pace of his Scottish counterpart – although he is adept at finishing any chances that may come to him at close range as he showed on his try in their comeback against Ireland - his defensive reliability under both the high ball and in the tackle, combined with the x factor of his exceptional goalkicking game, make him the first certainty for the test squad.

Stuart Hogg (Sco) – Arguably the revelation of the 6 Nations with sheer speed combined with wonderful angles leading to some magical tries, not least his length of the field score against Italy, along with an outstanding showing against England. Not quite reliable as Halfpenny in defence, but outstanding running, footballing skills and a solid kicking game means that he ousts Rob Kearney for the runner up spot. 

Wings:


Tim Visser (Sco) – Many here want to see Tommy Bowe travelling and with his top class international record that’s understandable, but ever since Visser has become eligible for Scotland he’s been a revelation, providing a constant threat in a backline that has been sorely missing such a presence for years, scoring 6 tries in just a handful of appearances including two against the All Blacks. His defensive game might be a little vulnerable, but he is well worth inclusion in the squad.

Alex Cuthbert (Wal) – The second of our Saturday certainties, Cuthbert has become the go to man for Wales, scoring 7 tries in the last two 6 Nations including the match winning tries in both deciding games for their Grand Slam and Championship triumph. An ever present threat in in the three match test series that Wales arguably should have won, scoring a try in the first test, he has plenty of experience on the and embodies Gatland’s mantra of force alongside pace.

George North (Wal) – Has become more of a player to make the hard yards rather than the finishing skills he showed when bursting onto the scene at the World Cup two years ago, but he’s no less valuable and makes an invaluable amount of yardage, along with the possibility of linebreaks like the one that set up Hibbard’s try against Scotland, make him a must for the Saturday side.

Simon Zebo (Ire) – Based on his tremendous defensive presence in the Heineken Cup quarter and semi finals, you get the feeling that there would be little arguing with his selection had he stayed fit for Ireland in the 6 Nations. An outstanding footballer and now vastly improved tactically – his positioning against Wales in both defence and attack as outstanding – he can also lay claim to be one of the quickest wings in the NH and that seals the deal.

Centres:

Jonathan Davies (Wal) – Passed poorly in Wales’s opening defeat against Ireland  - and that may still be an issue despite his relatively impressive tryscoring record for Wales at international level - but improved steadily as the tournament went on and invaluable towards making hard yards in attack, while his defensive qualities can't be dismissed out of hand. Always potential for a Wales centre partnership between him and Jamie Roberts if anything (god forbid) should happen to Brian O'Driscoll.

Brian O’Driscoll (Ire) – A great of world rugby and a veteran of the last two tours, O’Driscoll is approaching the twilight of his career but proved that he has all the class which took him to such heights with a stunning performance against Wales on the opening day of the 6 Nations. He failed to recapture that form for the rest of the tournament, but recent performances for Leinster suggest that he may just have been suffering the same blip that most of the Irish team did, Some may worry about his longevity, but he’s a must start based on what we’ve seen of late.

Jamie Roberts (Wal) – A standout when linking magically with O’Driscoll on the last tour and has remained one of Europe’s best centres since. Never been in doubt and brings a better passing game than most in his position.


Manu Tuilagi (Eng) – Another bosh merchant, some might say, but there’s no question that he can turn a game on it’s head at any moment and while he had a disappointing end to the Championship in Cardiff – what Englishman didn’t? – the way he ripped New Zealand apart last winter is enough confirmation of his talents. England have been overealiant upon him but playing outside of Sexton should change that and he’s likely to be far more effective in this setup, especially if used as an impact substitute against tired players late on.


Fly-halves:

Johnny Wikinson (Eng) – This comes with the proviso that i) Gatland is willing to look past the inevitable fact that Toulon will use him for the playoffs – and the odds on them failing to reach the final are long – and that ii) He’s used in the latter stages of a game to pin Australia back territorially and remove defensive danger. The second point may seem very dismissive in the light of two excellent Toulon performances, but much of the plaudits revolved around his admittedly well-taken drop goals and the penalties he put away behind a dominant second half performance from one of the best packs in European club rugby. With Leigh Halfpenny – who is just as good off the tee - on the field the focus of his game is going to have to change and most of Toulon’s attacking opportunities yesterday were actually created by Matt Giteau, who had a stunning game. I’m not saying for one minute that he couldn’t do the job (Toulon have score a tremendous amount of points in the Top 14, averaging about 40 a game at the Stade Mayol at least, and yesterday’s game was atypical of the way that he’s been playing for them for the majority of the French season) – and he proved that Owen Farell has a long way to go before he can be considered for such a role – but Australia will be a different test in every way.

Jonathan Sexton (Ire) – Another test certainty, and yes, this is ahead of Johnny Wilkinson, having been Europe’s premier flyhalf for at least three years now. A fantastic user of the uber mobile Leinster pack, he thrives on the turnover ball Gatland is so keen to provide and has one of the best running games in the world, along with one of the best passes. Placekicking is not his first resort but he does it as well as anyone, while he is also a lethal runner when finding the space to do so – just ask Northampton, or indeed England’s 2011 title winning side. He may not be able to employ the famed Leinster/Ireland loop he enjoys so much with O’Dsricoll potentially the only fellow Irishman in the backline, but with Halfpenny in the side goalkicking responsibilities are off his shoulders, and he has no equals in bringing other men around him into the game. Three Heineken Cups in four years – one with two tries to his name in the final – underlines the big game temperament he has which seems to have impressed so many in recent weeks from Wilkinson.

Scrum-halves: 

Mike Phillips (Wal) – The odds on choice to start, having been Gatland’s go to man for many years now and also a major part in the Lions’s best efforts in the second and third tests of 2009. Didn’t have much of a test behind a dominant pack in Cardiff but is reliable, strong, the best of the three in defence, has the best kicking game and can also involve himself within the breakdown as well, which is always a bonus.


Conor Murray (Ire) – Has come a mile from costing his Munster side a hard fought victory at Racing Metro on the opening matchday of the Heineken Cup, impressing in the 6 Nations bar his one dithering moment against Scotland and being one of the quiet standout players for Munster against Harlequins and Clermont. His defensive game has improved, but the real progress he’s made is with his running and box kicking. Dismissed any doubts last weekend.

Ben Youngs (Eng) – Badly missed by England when Danny Care’s sliced box kick – not for the first time – cost them badly against Italy in the 6 Nations, and unable to do anything with a retreating pack and smashed front row in Cardiff, Youngs has generally been England’s best scrum half on every other occasion and has a game around the fringes that is now almost unrivalled, and pace to burn as he showed with his fantastic length of the field score against Bath and his deeply impressive showing against Toulon in the Heineken Cup as well. His strong recent form in the Southern Hemisphere – he’s scored against the Aussies on their home turf and also bagged two in South Africa last year – is a bonus.


Props:

Cian Healy (Ire) – One of the standout’s of a poor Ireland 6 Nations campaign, and took a look a leading role when they beat a strong Australia side in the pool stage of the 2011 World Cup. A top class scrummager who also boasts a tremendous loose game and carrying ability, his fine form give confidence that he’s over his disciplinary issues of the early spring.


Gethin Jenkins (Wal) – Has the proviso of Toulon wanting him for the Top 14 playoffs – and regardless of his position behind Andrew Sherdian in the starting side he will be used – but impossible to leave out on the basis of his destruction of Scotland and England in the last two rounds of the 6 Nations. A wealth of experience – he played in all three tests against New Zealand – along with the ablity to cover loose or tighthead prop, make him a must fly.

Adam Jones (Wal) – The form tighthead prop of this year’s 6 Nations, Jones’s single handed destruction of the admittedly below par and below standard Joe Marler from the 1st minute, and then Mako Vunipola, was sublime and went a long way towards building such an exaggerated margin of victory. A previous Lion, he looks to be a test certainty.

Dan Cole (Eng)  - Doesn’t have quite the reputation that he did last year after what could only be called a schooling by Tomas Domingo on week three and then coming off second best in Cardiff, but it’s hard to find a more active front rower at the breakdown and in the loose, while he’s been made to look average on a couple of occasions, he’s still easily good enough to tour and the defiencies of Joe Marler made him look worse than he was in Cardiff. A must tour and likely replacement.

Ryan Grant (Sco) – Scotland’s back three have gotten most of the plaudits for their recent improvements within the 6 Nations but they’ve fronted up plenty at scrum time and with 6 props likely to travel, there are worse ideas than taking Grant, who played in Australia’s 6-9 win over Scotland in the single test they played and is now a mainstay of that side. 


Mako Vunipola – A bolter here but he turned plenty in favour for England when coming on in all 5 games, outplaying Joe Marler on each and every occasion – never more so than against France when a previously outplayed England then drew well clear of their opponents – and also giving the go forward than England’s pack had sorely lacked for most of the tournament. Excellent against Toulon on Sunday, his ball carrying ability appeals as a possible impact player.


Hookers:

Rory Best (Ire) – Not had his best of seasons, with a dismal game against Scotland helping to derail Ireland’s 6 Nation campaign after a season that had started so strongly when part of the Ulster side that led the field in the Heineken Cup and also when creating Cian Healy’s try through his chargedown of Dan Biggar’s kick in Ireland’s opening win. He travels, like many of the Irish forwards, thanks to his abilities in the loose and with the ball, although he needs a serious uptrurn in the lineout performances that were once his trademark.

 Richard Hibbard (Wal) – Another Welshman, but no apologies for the late bloomer who has taken ruthless advantage of Matthew Rees’ injury with rock solid performances, culminating in fine style against Scotland where his try put distance between the Welsh and Scots, while he – like the whole team - was wonderful against England. Looks a hot favourite to start.

Tom Youngs (Eng) – One of the finds of recent seasons for England with just a handful of caps, impressing hugely in the Autumn Internationals – obviously against New Zealand, where his pick and drive was exceptional and he added tremendous amounts to the rolling maul. An all around the park presence and pace with the ball only enhances his prospects of making the test side.


Locks:

Alun Wyn Jones (Wal) – A replacement in the 2009 series for the second and third tests, Jones has come a long way from being the man who ‘probably cost Wales the game’ when tripping Dylan Hartley, and creating an advantage in which England put 17 points upon their counterparts in their 2012 6 Nations opener. Likely to start alongside O’Connell.

Paul O'Connell (Ire, Capt) – The very embodiment of lion and a leading presence in 2009, many feared for O’Connell following his back problems, but he came roaring back with that performance in the Heineken Cup against Harlequins and he was at least as good against Clermont at the weekend. His talents seemingly have no end, but his lineout operation will be a much-needed asset and his presence in a driving maul is also second to none, while his immense defence and ball carrying make him another certain starter. Well placed to run the game tactically at lock, he is also an obvious captain’s pick with the experience of many years behind him.

Geoff Parling (Eng) – If there’s anyone who embodies the Stuart Lancaster era, it’s Geoff Parling. Make of that statement what you will, but the fact of the matter is that England have won eight of their last 10 6 Nations internationals and finished ahead of Ireland in the last two 6 nations, and this man has seen at the head of it all. A fantastic presence with the ball and well versed in the art of fast ground rugby, an outstanding tackler and near unbeatable in the lineout or controlling a drive, it would be a terrible shame were he to miss out on selection as many have hinted at.

Ian Evans (Wal) – Wales were facing a lock crisis at the beginning of the 6 Nations but both Ian Evans, and to a later extent, Alun Wyn Jones, stepped upto the plate masterfully and have to be the favourites to start, and certainties to travel. A standout for both club and country, Evans would be my preferred of the Welsh locks, but not by much.

Flankers:

Dan Lydiate (Wal) – The revelation of the 2012 6 Nations, with his superb tackling technique of completely chopping the legs of a player offering quick ball and providing one of Alex Cuthbert’s two tries in the end of season games against France, along with an industry upon which Sam Warburton in particular thrived. Injured since the summer tour of Australia, but back in the nick of time and was impressive against Munster, albeit a side that had bigger fish to fry. Has had only the 4 games for the dragons, but should be back in his stride by test time after testing himself out against local sides.

Sean O'Brien (Ire) – One of the premier players in Ireland’s defeat of Australia 2 hours ago, O’Brien’s ablity when breaking the gainline is amongst the best in the world and he was one of the highlights of a what was a dire 6 Nations for Ireland. Like his countrymen, proficient at the breakdown, and also able to throw himself about when covering in defence, he gets the vote over an embarrassment of Irish backrow riches.

 Sam Warburton (Wal) – The talisman of Welsh Rugby, Warburton’s only disappointing spell has been the long barren run after their first Grand Slam, and even then he did very little wrong in the three tests Wales lost here. Put simply, he is one of the world’s best flankers and up against either George Smith or Liam Gill in a breakdown battle his chances will be crucial towards Lions successes this summer.

Tom Croft (Eng) – A star turn in 2009 by chance, with Alan Quinlan being cited early on, Croft led the fightback in the first test with two of the fast finishes that have become his trademark – those who want a real treat should see his winner against France in last year’s 6 Nations – Croft was a prominent figure in what was one of the games of the decade, that agonising loss to lose the series 2-0, and the easy win afterwards. Since then he has been a bastion of the England side, but it’s all too easy to forget that he’s lucky to be walking, let alone here. His horrific neck injury gained towards the end of last year could have paralysed him, but instead he’s back and better for ever at Leicester for club level. Able to cover open and blindside flanker, with the power and height for lock as well, he is crying out upon the basis of versatility, but his most appealing quality is the raw pace which allows him to score tries at a remarkable rate for a backrow forward, having cut open the opposition numerous times for both club and country, while he is an excellent lineout operator and good, if not great, breakdown presence. To judge him based on his 6 Nations – where he was rushed back far too soon considering the nature of his injury – would be just foolish and he is confidently picked over Tom Wood.


Justin Tipuric (Wal) – Many will see his crowning glory as his England performance but the reality is that for the whole of this season Tipuric had been putting his hand up for Welsh and Lions selection and he excelled in the 6 Nations. In tandem with Warburton, his destruction of England’s backrow was superb and the ball skills and pace he showed in both Welsh tries was very encouraging for the hard grounds of Australia, especially when fooling Mike Brown for Cuthbert’s second after a break of more than 50 meteres. 


Number 8’s:

Toby Faletau (Wal): Picks himself after another superb 6 Nations, although it’s easy to remember the fine World Cup that he had a couple of years ago. His partnership with other Welsh backrow members could well give crucial go forward in the pack, and he has plenty of Southern Hemisphere experience to boot.


Jamie Heaslip: To be frank, had a shocking 6 Nations but his form since then has made him and extremely worthy tourist and he embodies all the qualities that a No.8 needs, his performance against Biarritz – 2 tries, 6 defenders beaten, and 13 gainline successes, showed that he is one of Europe’s premier no 8’s.


Ben Morgan (Eng): If there was anything that showed his pure importance to the England side, it was the destruction that they suffered in Wales with Wood at the back of the scrum and going backwards on each and every occasion. Simply a pure powerhouse at his best, he arguably has the most go forward of any No.8 in the Northern Hemisphere apart from Louis Picamoles and made a fantastic return against Saracens last week. That alone won’t see him through but Exeter at Sandy Park should be a great workout and if his ankle holds, he can challenge for a test place.

Sunday 28 April 2013

Heineken Cup Semi Final - Saracens v Toulon


Mourad Bouedjaal’s millions look destined to bring Toulon plenty of certain glory in the future but upon all the previous evidence they will have to produce their best ever performance to reach a first Heineken Cup final against Saracens at Wembley today.


Beaten in the finals of the Challenge Cup and Top 14 last year, Toulon’s anguish at being beaten by a combined total of just 6 points in both those events has led to even more additions to an already start studded squad - Chris Masoe Nicolas Durand, Freddy Michalak, Maxime Mermoz, Andrew Sheridan, Gethin Jenkins, Guy and Delon Armitage having all joined over the summer – and they’ve looked better than ever this season, drawing well away from the rest of the Top 14 with Clermont this season in ominous fashion.


Saracens were wiped aside in such brutal fashion by this year’s finalists Clermont at the quarter final stage that they raised the issue of the salary cap between the Premiership and Top 14, but at no time this season have they looked like that would be an issue, making it through their pool against Munster with relative ease and shutting down Ulster here in the quarter final comfortably on their way to a 27-16 win which flattered the away side to a significant degree thanks to a late try.


The switch to their new home and plastic pitch seems to have realty bought out the best from Mark McCall’s men, who have often been accused of lacking attacking ambition, yet have averaged 29 points against since January, scoring 172 points in the 5 games there in a run which has seen them move clear at the top of the Premiership table, leading Leicester by 4 points going into this week. That same Leicester side pushed Toulon all the way to a 6 point defeat at the Stade Mayol in the quarters just three weeks ago, and it’s had not to argue that this Saracens side aren’t at least the equal of that outfit or even better.
 

Toulon’s strength in depth can win them any game, but if there’s any situation in which they look beatable, its when travelling. Never at their most vulnerable than when away from the South of France, Toulon have lost 6 of their last 9 away matches in the Top 14, and while they’ve only lost one game in this season’s competition, it as an absolute battering (22-3) at the hands of Montpellier. That game was played in special circumstances – the death of a popular club figure in midweek combined with the motivation of a quarter final place and also Toulon having been guaranteed a spot in the last eight – but of their seven defeats, 6 have been on the road and in Saracens they face their toughest challenge yet.


With so much talent in the backlines of these two much of the focus has been upon the No10 battle of Wilkinson v Farell but when the toing gets tough, these two revert to the same weapons – a powerful pack, and scrum, superb breakdown, ruthlessly efficient kick chase game, and strong lineout – and this could be a very tight game indeed with so much on the line. Toulon’s win against Leicester was tryless while Saracens - famed for their defence and experts at slowing the ball down from the best of opposition packs - were content with grinding down an Ulster side with most of the possession here a couple of weeks ago. The 12/1 Coral offer on no tryscorer looks too big while the supplementing it with under 2.5 tries looks to be the best way to play the game – those on the exchanges should look towards playing the draw.



Advice


1 pt No Tryscorer (12/1 Coral, Totesport)

2 pts Under 2.5 tries (evs Bet365)

Already Advised - 12th October