Haskell Stakes 2011

10.43 Monmouth Park

Haskell Invitational Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £384,615

Pick: Shackleford (win)

Coil: Had a three-race win streak broken in Swaps Stakes when he took a lead into the stretch only to be caught by a head at the wire in his first try at nine furlongs (giving 6lbs to second); Working very well of late and expected to improve again, so serious chance for trainer who dominates this event  (won this race in his last four tries and has placed in seven of eight).

Joe Vann: Impressive when running out an easy winner of the Illinois Derby and trouble at start cost him badly when forth in Peter Pan Stakes but no answer when challenged in Matt Winn Stakes and passed over here.

Pants On Fire: Suffered rubbish trip when a well beaten sixth behind Much Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes, and impressed when using tactical early speed to hold better position when reversing form in Louisiana Derby; Bled from lungs in Derby and can do better here although nearly impossible to split him with Belmont winner for same connections.

Concealed Identity: Benefit of an overly strong pace when in Pimlico’s local Preakness prep, the $75,000 Federico Tesio Stakes; Unplaced in Preakness and had no answer to Pants On Fire last time out (2lbs worse off) so hard to fancy today.

Shackleford: Ran Dialed In to a head off a very strong gallop (which he set) in the Florida Derby, and underlined that effort when fourth in Kentucky Derby; Somehow managed to set fractions of 22.69, 46.87, 1:12.01, 1:37.22, & 1:56.47 but still win Preakness Stakes, and no shame in being unable to do the same in Belmont; Can make a bold bid back at best trip.

Ruler On Ice: Has been consistent, with 2 wins, 2 seconds, and 1 third-place finish from his last 5 races; Third in the Sunland Derbyn & 3-2 favourite in the Tesio Stakes, but sprung a shock when winning the Belmont Stakes; Seemed improved for the step up to 12 furlongs there and had a lot fall right for him that day.

JJ’s Lucky Train: Won two of three starts as a juvenile at Monmouth but Bay Shore win hasn’t been followed up this season and others preferred up in trip and class.

Astrology: Astrology: Made a winless but good start to 2011, having run second to Twice the Appeal in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby on March 27 on his seasonal debut, and again to Adios Charlie in the Grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct on April 23; Career best third in Preakness followed by odds on failure last time, so passed over here.

VERDICT: SHACKLEFORD couldn’t stay the 12 furlongs in the Belmont but sets a good standard on his Preakness win and should prove hard to back at his best trip, having had 50 days to recover from the hard race he’ll have had there. The progressive Coil should make another bold bid, while it’s desperately hard to split Kelly Breen’s pair with Pants On Fire just getting the vote at this trip.

Prix Rothschild 2011

2.40 Deauville

Prix Rothschild Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €171,420

Pick: Goldikova (win)

Timepiece: Steadily progressive through last part of year and career best when steadily Falmouth Stakes under very smart ride from Tom Queally, always well placed off slow pace before taking up lead; While she’s clearly smart, today (with pacemaker) likely to be more of a test for her.

Vanjura: Top older filly in Germany; runner-up to the smart Worthadd in Milan before then winning Group 3 with ease; This looks too tough for her at first glance despite obvious abilities.

One Clever Cat: came with a storming late run to take the Listed Prix Jacques Laffite by three lengths and while she has bettered that for in defeat since, suspicion is that today’s trip is too short upped in class.

First City: Would have a squeak on her best form, which includes a Group 3 second to progressive sort at Goodwood last season and once again strong at finish when threatening Antara in Group 3 first time out; Better again in Windsor Forest and then in Falmouth but flattered by a few efforts.

Flash Dance: Pacemaker for Goldikova, who was creditable fourth in Prix D’ishphan  this season (career best); No real chance. 

Goldikova: Another record breaking season last year, stamping herself as best European mare of recent times with stunning wins D’Isphan, Queen Anne, this race last year for third time running, along with the Foret & a third Breeders Cup Mile; Made another classy reappearance when winning the D’Isphan for a second time and while she was second best to Canford Cliffs at Ascot, 2lbs overweight can’t have helped and this easier; One to beat by a long way.

Saphresa: Developed into top class miler and unlucky not to again Asian Group 1 win in two tries last year, having previously taken Sun Chariot Stakes for second year running; Scarcely believable how she hacked all over quality opposition down at 7 furlongs on reappearance and then undone by slow gallop in Falmouth Stakes when Timepeice got first run; Can reverse that form but beating Goldikova is huge task.

Nova Hawk: Steadily progressive as a juvenile, coming runner up in pair of listed races at backend of last year (heavy ground) ; Impressive winner of Prix La Camargo on seasonal reappearance and bettered that when fourth in Newmarket/French 1,000 Guineas; Unlucky when second in Coronation Stake s but should find things harder against older fillies and mares.

VERDICT: Although she was clearly second best, the 2lbs overweight that GOLDIKOVA carried in the Queen Anne Stakes was no help and she can gain a fourth win in this. Each/way thieves should be looking towards the Falmouth 1-2 Timepiece and Saphresa, both of whom may hold Coronation Stakes second Nova Hawk for the places. 

Glorious Goodwood 2011 Day 5 - Supporting Races

Well what a fantastic day that was. As if having Chachamaidee and Harbour Watch bolt in at Goodwood wasn’t enough, two of our cricket bets came in with James Anderson – Our tip for the Top England First Innings wicket taker and also to take 3 or more wickets – has one to his name already and looks in serious touch.

With 3 of the cricket bets likely to be settled today and one that I like very much in the Nassau Stakes there’s only one that we like in the Stewards Cup. As with all sprint handicaps nowadays, the draw is of major importance and while Goodwood’s track is fairer than most I still would be taking a line, or at least backing one on each side, unless you have one slap bang in the middle.

Personally, I would be itching to get across to the standside rail which seemed a big help to Masamah when he won so impressively earlier in the week, while it’s also not a disadvantage to come up the middle, as William Buick showed on Catfish in the last, although the fact he had no front runner to harass him was a major help as 4 others engaged in a pace burn up standside.

Victoire De Lyphar (above) is slap bang in the middle with stall 15, so Adrian Nicholls isn’t going to have too much trouble finding the rail or some cover and that already makes him an attractive betting proposition.

An easy winner of a good York heat last year, as well as finishing second in the Stewards' Sprint at Goodwood and the Ayr Gold Cup, Victoire De Lyphar is well versed in these big-field events, which is always a plus.

On his seasonal debut, Bated Breath, Society Rock and Royal Rock all finished in front of him in a conditions event at Haydock but he was seen as a disappointment by many, which underlines the high regard he is held in. The winner that day has been second in the July Cup while the second won the Golden Jubilee and even though that form cannot be taken literally it gives an idea of this horse’s potential.

He ran no race in the Wokingham but that was all down to the ground and if you forgive him that then he’s got to have a serious chance for a trainer with a great record in this.  Of the others, I must put in a good word for Tiddlywinks, who has proven himself group class with two solid efforts when third behind Delegator in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes in May and then second to Hitchens in a Group 3 at the Curragh. His seventh last time was only due to Phillip Makin losing his irons late on and while he’s a lot higher than when he was fourth in the Stewards’ Sprint but he’s progressed enough to deserve that rating and he can go very well from a plum rail side draw.

Hoof It is going to be contesting races like the Sprint Cup later this season and while he should go well here off 10-0 he’ll be putting in a Group class performance to beat this field off that weight and he had a hard race only a week ago, so at 7’s others are preferred.

Mac’s Power is of tremendous interest based on his Wokingham eight where he trashed his side but I was disappointed that he couldn’t win at Ascot and he ran like a horse held off his mark. Edinburgh Knight’s handicap form has worked out brilliantly (behind Wokingham/Group winner Deacon Blues) and he can go well here too.

He’s the only pick advised here given that nothing takes my fancy on the card. In the opener (2.00) Golden Destiny is a bit overpriced at 10’s but he’s not won for two years and over this trip (he would have won with further earlier this week) that’s just enough to make me move on.

The Toyo Tyres Handicap Stakes (2.35) is almost too good to try and solve but the two to concentrate on might be Verdant and Activate.  Verdant hasn’t quite proven upto group class this season but that’s been in slowly run races where he was held up out the back and in a handicap over a trip that allows for a flat spot even on a track as sharp as Goodwood he could be seen to best effect. Activate is picked because his run last time was a non-event when even Hayley Turner couldn’t drop him and he was out far too wide all the way. Back in trip he still has the widest draw but over this course it won’t matter and his stamina will be put to good effect by Jamie Spencer late on. Harlestone Times is best forgiven his run but I prefer the profiles of the top two.

Advice

0.5 pts each/way Victoire De Lyphar, 3.45 Goodwood ( 15/1 William Hill, 14’s elsewhere) 

Glorious Goodwood 2011 - Nassau Stakes

3.15 Goodwood

Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (British Champions' Series) (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £104,914

Pick: Snow Fairy (win)

Crystal Capella: A Group 1 filly in all but name, with 7 wins from & 12 proved as good as ever when slamming her field in Group 2 at Newmarket over 1m4f; Taking on some of world’s best but long been capable and drop down to 10 furlongs no problem at all.

Field Day: Made progression stepped up to Group company last year, signing off with excellent fourth in Group 1 Prix L’Opera; Beaten long way in Dahila Stakes by I’m A Dreamer and no show when seventh in Middleton or sixth in Widnsor Forest; Hard to fancy here.

Midday: Took her own performances to a new level when completing a hat-trick in Group 1s last summer & would have made it four but for awful trip in Breeders Cup F&M Turf; As good as ever when taking Middleton Stakes from progressive performer and reeled in by top class colt on comeback trail in Coronation Cup last season, having been clear at 2f pole; No answer to Misty For Me last time but will get close today, as she gave away too much rope; expect a bold bid for a hat – trick of wins here.

Principal Role: Continued progression from last season when making a good reappearance here and following that up with Newcastle listed win; This is a new level from that and would be doing well to place here.

Snow Fairy: Improved out of all recognition last season for step up to middle distances, completing Oaks double in empathic style here before valiant second to Midday (btn 3 lengths, improved since) in Yorkshire Oaks; didn’t stay in Ledger but completed remarkable Hong Kong double at backend of last season, beating top class fields on both occasions; Needed the run in the Eclipse badly and will make bold bid to land this.

Barefoot Lady: Useful 2yo & not disgraced when third and second in Group/Listed contests at backend of last year; Feisty winner of Nell Gwyn on return and further improvement when fifth in 1,000 Guineas, second in Musidora and then third in Coronation Stakes; Older horses may have too much for her.

VERDICT: A race that is just slightly diminished by the withdrawal of Misty For Me thanks to unsuitable ground. Midday is expected to make a bold bid in her hat – trick attempt for this race but preference if for SNOW FAIRY, who should improve for her seasonal debut in the Eclipse and resume the progression that saw her win two Asian Group 1’s last season. Crystal Capella can too make a bold bid. 

Glorious Goodwood 2011 - Oak Tree Stakes

4.50 Goodwood

Oak Tree Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £28,355

Pick: Chachamaidee (win)

Chachamaidee: Good sort; Has found new level of form this year for being fitted with a hood, coming a good second in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot; Should go well and inside draw is a major help.

Dawn Eclipse: Outran her odds when fourth behind Emulous at 66/1 two starts ago but that seems like a fluke and widest draw of all is no help at all.

Dever Dream: Failed to show her progression on first two starts this season (found trouble in running) but much more like it when close second to in- form Ladies Are Forever at York last time; Should go well here although plenty of stiff opposition.

Law Of the Range: Has made some remarkable progress since winning at Sandown last may, rounding off hat – trick with game front running display latest; Well drawn for another try at that but this field harder to lead all the way.

Magic Eye: Reliable performer in native Germany, winning 4 times in listed company and has done well again this season but Rockaltella (fellow German raider) holds her based on this season’s form.

Pyrrha: Third in this race last year and pleasing effort on comeback when third again in Lingfield Group 3; must bounce back from a modest effort in French Group 3 last time.

Rockatella: One place and 1½ lengths in front of Magic Eye when runner-up in Group 3 over 1m at Bremen last time; That form might need improving on here.

Thai Haiku: Would hold every chance based on efforts in Meydan this sprint efforts and you can’t throw her out based on her French comeback run, when short of room in the straight; Still needs to run to top form.

Tropical Paradise: Quite a taking winner of this last season and has carried most of her form to this campaign but draw in 13 could pose a serious problem if she misses the kick and this a better renewal.

Perfect Tribute: One of the more appealing choices in this field, having broken track records at Ascot and Lingfield this season and latest run can be discounted; Of major interest from a perfect draw in stall 5.

Rimth: Very fast 2yo who showed she’d trained on when a clear cut winner of Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury, and probably didn’t get home in French 1,000 Guineas; Naturally of interest here but all 15 is no help at all and dependent on a clear run.

Cochamba: Showed up well on every two year old start last season, running a close second in the Rockfel and Prestige Stakes; Good run at Newbury but safely held by Rimth.

Khor Sheed: Finally off the mark for the season with easy win in Warwick listed event but that far weaker contest and back up in class here; Also has to contend with wide draw in 14, which is no help.

Maqaasid: Showed immense promise on debut and realized that very quickly when winning Queen Mary Stakes in course record time, but failed to build on that as 2; Trained on in no uncertain terms this season, bettering her trial third when filling same position in 1,000 Guineas (could have gotten better trip); Never in contention thanks to draw in French Guineas and Falmouth was always going to be hard with no pace, so of interest here.

Memory: If you take her Albany and Cherry Hinton Stakes wins, then surely one of the classiest horses in the field; Not matched that form since but more worrying twice refused at Newmarket this season; If back to her best then can win this but no way of telling; Last chance for connections.

Rhythm Of Light: Has been much improved this season when bumping into potential pattern performer and then landed Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot; Can go well although stall 17 demands a lot.

Sharberry: Improved on 2yo form when second to Rimth at Newbury but no answers when winner Swept past and French Guineas fifth better form; That said, ran a poor race last time and others preferred.

VERDICT: A cracking renewal butt one that’s very hard to rate so the advice is to tread carefully and the draw is the first port of call. As well having some of the strongest form claims, CHACHAMAIDEE has a plum draw and that seals the vote, with talented 3yos Maqaasid, Memory, & Perfect Tribute having something to prove, while the speedy Rimth and Khor Sheed have to deal with wide draws. 

Glorious Goodwood 2011 - Richmond Stakes

3.45 Goodwood

Tanqueray Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £34,026

Pick: Harbour Watch (win)

Bannock: Made no mistake on second start when coasting home in Redcar maiden & then able to win race in one go when leading all the way in Windsor conditions event; Bettered that form consistently since and should make a bold bid.

Bogart: Defied maturing family (most of his relatives have success at middle distances, or the ages of 3 or above) to make impressive winning debut at Ayr; Must be respected for team that has great juvenile talent this season.

Caspar Netcher: Has developed into  a very smart early season two year old, placing in three good Listed events including Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot; Should run well but other less exposed horses might improve past him.

Eurkeka: Showed a great attitude to deny subsequent Norfolk Stakes fourth Burwaaz on debut and again to defy big weight at Salisbury next time out; Unlucky to be caught out wide dropped in trip in Super Sprint and can do better today although this a far stiffer.

Factory Time: Made a good impression on his first two starts, winning with plenty in hand on both occasions before Listed third at Newbury (seemingly well held); Needs more to reverse that form.

Harbour Watch: Overcame soft ground and trouble in running to beat subsequent winner with ease on debut at Sailsbury, putting daylight between himself and field quickly; Even better when slamming solid yardstick at Newmarket, giving away weight; Could be a class act.

Parc De Lunay: Travelled like a more than useful horse before lengthening out well despite hanging badly late on debut, and took time to find his stride again when challenged last time; Needs to find more today. 

Right To Dream: Made a promise start for one from this stable but no answer to Roman Solider from a long way out at Leicester; Broke maiden with ease and interesting that connections want to pitch him in here.

Saigon: Upset 4-9 chance (with pair well clear in the closing stages) after sluggish start and even better when overhauling good types at Newbury last time out in style of a progressive sort.

Silverheels: looked group class when bolting up from a subsequent winner at Windsor despite having veered left after start (still green throughout) and while he hasn’t built on it as some would have hoped, he did well to be third in the Superlative Stakes having suffered interference; Can go well.

VERDICT: HARBOUR WATCH’S two wins have marked him out as potentially one of the best juveniles seen this season and he can take this step up in his stride. Saigon, Silverheels and Bannock can follow him home. 

Glorious Goodwood - Thoroughbred Stakes

2.35 Goodwood

RSA Thoroughbred Stakes (Listed) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £17,013

Pick: Western Aristocrat (win)

Tazahum: Improved on debut winning form when a well beaten second behind Dubawi Gold (has been vastly improved since then) & reappeared with impressive handicap win; Bettered that form when winning Heron Stakes (shaped as if he’d stay well) & not disgraced in strong Group 3 at Royal Ascot, when he was too keen to help himself; 4lbs penalty off-putting but should still go well.

Chef: Built on promising debut win and seasonal reappearance when tight winner of Doncaster handicap over this trip and better when fourth despite being slow to come out of stalls in Newmarket sales race;  Might do better.

Neebras: 2 efforts (in good listed race and then when game fourth in St James’s Palace behind Zoffany) give him an excellent chance and Preix Jean Prat was a strong renewal this year (as shown by Strong Suit’s easy Group 2 win earlier in the week); Can go well but slightly vulnerable and may not reproduce best form to the pound. 

Questioning: Got up late to justify good support on debut in maiden (AW; 1m) and would have been much closer in one of strongest sales races run last season had he been given a clear passage; Similar form this term when fourth in very good Group 2 in France but slightly disappointing he couldn’t come back and win Newmarket sales race last time; Drop back in trip might not aid him.

Slim Shadey: Held his form well over the majority of last season, coming second in a Listed contest at Newbury before a fourth in a big sales race; Ran well above his odds in Guineas but not matched that form since.

Trade Storm: Posted subsequent career best on all three starts this season before stumbling at stalls and losing race at Start in big mile handicap last time; Not hard to make a case for him on his Brittannia fifth, but others still taken.

Vanguard Dream: Three from three (maiden, novice and nursery) and looked to be going places as a juvenile to disappointing to see him struggle a lot in his races this season. 

Western Aristocrat: Made a most promising start when winning 7f Newmarket maiden last autumn & looked a colt with big future when overcoming trouble in running to win Haydock handicap on return; Probably a bit immature at Ascot when another furlong would have helped; Gets that today and should not be far away at all.

VERDICT: Tazahum and Neebras both set a good standard with a suitable assignment given to them but the potential of WESTERN ARTISTOCRAT, who needed another furlong at Royal Ascot but gets one today and could be more grown up now too.