Royal Ascot 2012 - Jersey Stakes

2.30 Royal Ascot (Day 2, Race 1) 

Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) Winner £39,697

Advice: 1 pt win, 2 pt place Aljamaaheer (9/2 & 11/8 Blue Sq)

Red Duke: Classy colt who has long since been unable to show his best either through slowly run race or being badly positioned (Newmarket and German 2,000 Guineas two examples); This could suit if getting a toe into the race and no dismissed, but penalty is hugely offputting against such unexposed opposition.

Talwar: Looked as if he had a lot to offer when winning Solario Stakes by an easy 5 lengths last season but since disappointed despite winning Listed AW event at Lingfield; Put in his place in the 2,000 Guineas and passed over.

Aljamaaheer: Made short work of Yarmouth maiden field and tipped for big things after that but stuck in the mud when making reappearance in Yarmouth handicap, and showed that to be all wrong when running out ready winner of listed event at Newmarket which has seen 4 winners of this finish first or second; Highly respected.

Bannock: Smart as a 2 year old (Group 2 placed twice and Listed winner) but since exposed and while he’s shown form in patches, it’s hard to fancy him especially at this trip.

Boomerang Bob: Good 2 year old, running second in Norfolk Stakes and Prix Du Bois; Excellent return when second in the Greenham and 2,000 Guineas failure can be forgiven; Dissapointing when only second in a conditions event last time especially when one considers that main contender flopped; Others preferred.

Eastern Sun: Eastern Sun: Impressive maiden winner who didn’t handle heavy ground in Solario Stakes of last year; Put that right with AW conditions stakes win at Kempton and then third in the Craven Stakes (possibly on ground with more cut than he’d like) just 12 days later; Flop in Heron Stakes however and needs much more here.

Ewell Palace: Took just two tries to take his maiden, thrown in at deep end on 5f conditions stakes here before Goodwood second to group placed horse next timeout;

Justineo: Fourth in last year’s Gimcrack after easy maiden win but no match for Proudcer on comeback (beaten well on both starts inbetween) and hard to like too much after that; Stable has better options.

Laffan: Benefitted from a superb front running ride when running out a ready winner of his fourth handicap this season at Epsom last time; Likely still got more to give but winning race of this calibre with this field from the front likely to prove too much.

Lethal Force: Fourth in the Coventry of last season and filled same spot in Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, but since been beaten in listed contests at Newbury and Haydock; Step up in trip will suit but this should be too much.

Producer: Made it 4 from 4 at Epsom when landing Listed event there with tons in hand over recomposing Justineo; Possible that he’s still improving but needs to find a lot more to be troubling the best in this race.

Ptolemaic: Improved hand over first – gone from 80 to 109 in just 4 runs - based purely on ratings, with Craven fourth being followed up by 2,000 Guineas seventh and then Dante fifth; Patently didn’t stay last time out so interesting here.

Rebellious Guest: Looked good on debut but has been beaten in every pattern race he’s contested and passed over with stamina doubts anyway.

Redact: Very promising comeback in Free Handicap when blocked for a run in a slowly run race (topweight) but flat efforts last twice and looks exposed in any case.

Reply: Threatened big things with an extremely impressive maiden win and while he disappointed on first two tries in Group company, but repaid those who kept faith with them when winning Doncaster sales race and coming third in Middle Park (shaped as if step up in trip would suit); Third on return in Irish Guineas strictly by the book is excellent (stable’s runners improve massively for the first run back) and should be the best form here, so must for any shortlist even with doubts over how strong that renewal was.

Soverign Debt: No more than nursery winner last year but deeply impressive winner of C&D handicap last time out, gaining mark of 100; Has to find ten lbs still but might have more to give, although notable that his two wins came here

Swiss Sprit: Narrow second to Valbchek (very highly fancied) before landing Newbury listed event by a neck on first two starts this season, improving upon form last season (as pedigree says that he should);

Telwaar: Built upon promise shown last season when landing Free Handicap on reappearance and then sent to French 2,000 Guineas when beating only one home; Needs to find a lot more dropped back to 7 furlongs.

Valbchek: Backed as if he was a very smart horse on debut when winning at Lingfield (4/11; Johnny Murtagh made effort to go and ride) and followed that up when landing valuable sales race at Newmarket in April; This race was mentioned straight after and with more to come (just had the two starts), must be respected today.

Ishavana: Ridden prominently in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and that rewarded when she was second at 33/1; That race doesn’t look the most solid for a classic not going to get things her own way.

Lady Gorgeous: Fifth in the Nell Gwyn and then again seventh in strong Newmarket handicap but well behind Producer and Justinieo in the Surrey Stakes and hard to fancy.

Sentaril: Deeply impressive when winning Newbury maiden by eight lengths first time up on soft ground and same story at Doncaster when winning conditions stakes with ease last time out; This a tougher task but clearly good enough to be taking her chance here and must be feared.

VERDICT: In keeping with most of the group events, a fiercely contested renewal. The first 4 in the betting seem to have the form edge, with Reply’s Irish Guineas third the best of them on strict form, and whether he seems flattered or not by it, the physical improvement from that should be enough to see him right there at the end. Unexposed pair Sentaril and Valbchek are valid choices for trainers who excel here, but ALJAMAHEER looked to have tons more to offer when scooting home in the King Charles Stakes – a key trial for this – at Newmarket last time and can take the beating here with improvement to come from that. The race didn’t have much strength in depth but it was hard to be unimpressed with the way he dispatched The Nile late on and he’s got to be given a top chance with a clear run.