Royal Ascot 2012 Queen Anne Stakes

2.30 Royal Ascot (Day 1, Race 1)

Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Winner £198,485

Advice: 4 pts Excelebration w/o Frankel (11/10 Hills)

Bullet Train: Respectable horse in own right but pacemaker for Frankel.

Excelebration: Made up into top class miler last year, coming behind Frankel on three occasions but winning the Moulin inbetween and impressing when landing Hungerford Stakes; Moved to Ballydoyle over the winter and started life with comfortable Group 3 win when preparing for Lockinge Stakes, where he was once again beaten with ease;  Frankel should beat him once again but capable of running big race none the less.

Frankel: Unbeaten superstar who’s now won 10 on the trot after his latest Group 1 romp, when beating rival Excelebration with ease in the Lockinge having suffered interrupted preparation beforehand; Impossible to see being beaten on all known form unless ground was to turn near – untraceable, a situation that wouldn’t suit either of his rivals; Should win well before tackling 10 furlongs.

Indomoito: Useful enough in Germany, although best effort came in Turkey when third to Musir in Group 2 Topaki Trophy; Form apart from that is a level below this (beaten by Worthadd easily a few starts back) and while he handles cut in the ground, there look to be several better options.

Premio Loco: As consistent as any horse in this field and one of best efforts on seasonal comeback when landing Winter Derby, and followed that up with Group 3 success in Sweden; Untried on worse than good to soft and no Group 1 win to his name, so while he merits respect it’s hard to recommend him.

Red Jazz: Another consistent performer at Group level, coming third in Godolphin mile before  winning Haydock listed event in gritty style; Disappointing there next time out though, emptying late on in Group 3 over 7 furlongs, and this harder.

Side Glance: Hadn’t found the same form which has seen him rise through the ranks last year until getting better of Dance And Dance in Diomed Stakes last time out, with Worthadd behind; Looked as if he would improve again but Seventh in QE11 seems to suggest he’s a level below this.

Strong Suit: Transformed thanks to breathing Operation last year, winning 3 Group races with something to spare before Breeders’ Cup Mile blowout; That can be forgotten thanks to poor draw and rough trip, but coming back off that absence for first time here on ground that might well be softer than he wants.

Windsor Palace: Pacemaker for Excelebration.

Worthadd: Top class Italian horse (their Derby winner of 2010) and second in last year’s Lockinge before winning Group 2 easily at San Siro; Disappointed for previous yard but comfortable winner in race he was entitled to take with something in hand; Looked set to win Diomed Stakes last time with plenty in hand but faded badly late on and hard to fancy here.

Helmet: Likely that he’d be a lot shorter for this based on purely his best form, with a most impressive all the way Caulfield Guineas success from a poor draw; Been disappointing since, although fair to say that a mile is as far as he wants to go based on later efforts; Tempting but suspicion that he might be better on better ground and worry about him being taken on early for lead with pacemakers around him.

VERDICT: Always a cracking way to start the week, and few could have picked a better way to kick off Royal Ascot then with the mighty FRANKEL, for whom there are no foreseeable dangers on paper, while the ground should be fine (he has a maiden win on soft ground - which now looks unlikely -to his name, while most of his main rivals on paper are just as likely to be disadvantaged by soft than he is). He offers no value at the prices, while it’s hard to know how fully extended he’ll be with winning distances in mind (although if pushed, over 4 lengths would be the call). Main rival EXCELEBRATION may well be considered a champion without him in the ranks, and he looks a great bet in the w/o Frankel market, as he does on any sort of ground and has a fitness advantage of the next best in the betting, Strong Suit, while the rest have it either to prove in terms of Group 1 class or going on the ground.