Royal Ascot 2012 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes

3.45 Royal Ascot (Day 5, Race 3)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £283,550

Advice: 2 pts Black Caviar to win by up To & Including 3.25 Lengths (6/4 Bet365)

Genki: Grand servant to connections, graduating form handicaps to landing several placed finishes in Group sprints; Not quite upto same level since coming fourth in Haydock Sprint Cup and others preferred.

Jimmy Styles: Ninth in this last year and won only once since 2009; placed at listed/Group 3 level on last 3 starts, but hard to see him running big in this sprint and easier opportunities for all.

Krypton Factor: Made some phenomenal progress this season dropped back down (was a sprinter in past life here before moving to UAE) to 6 furlongs on Tapeta, winning Al Shadingha Sprint in style before cutting down Rocket Man in sensational style, although he was helped by a suicidal pace set upfront by Rocket Man; Not as good in Krisflyer sprint when drawn out wide (poor break; Never could land a blow) but worry that he’s got as good as turf and soft ground a problem for him.

Pastoral Player: Always threatened a big race, running a massive race in number of handicaps in marks off 100’s; Blistering turn of foot to mow down rivals in Timeform Jury Stakes and not without chance of big showing once again if repeating that, although might be best on faster ground than this despite coming third in last year’s Wokingham.

Royal Rock: Looked like he could have a future when winning the Bengough Stakes 2 years ago but been largely poor before repeat win over C&D last October; Fourth in British Champions Sprint last year but not at same form this year  when behind The Cheka and Pastoral Player; Others looks better options.

Sirius Prospect; Looked as if he could make into a real group class sprinter when getting the better of Mayson (since won Group 3 Palace House Stakes) in Doncaster’s Wentworth Stakes back in November; Not gone on like runner up has since and hard to fancy here.

Society Rock: Announced himself as classy sprinter when second in this as 3 year old 2 years ago and best run since when landing this last year (soft); Followed that up with second (very well beaten four lengths) in Maurice De Gheest to Moonlight Cloud; Not at same form since but back in good style when third in Duke Of York Stakes, having been blocked for a run; Should shape fitter and make a good first of defending title even if it looks as if he’s going to lose it.

Soul: Listed and Group 2 winner in Australia who won 6f handicap in Dubai off advantageous mark of 109, but well exposed the last twice at Meydan and York and this even harder.

The Cheka: Close third in Park Stakes last year and then behind Pastoral Player in Challenge Cup over 7f here; Doncaster return brought good win and pushed Tiddliwinks to a head in Duke Of York Stakes last time, just ahead of Society Rock;

Black Caviar: Australian supermare who’s been described as one of best sprinters/mares/racehorses of all time; On a 21 race unbeaten streak, with 12 of those being Group 1’s, all of those coming totally on the bridle, with 21 different Group 1 winners (including the exceptional Hay List) amongst her victims; Barely moved to land Goodwood Stakes last time and shock of all shocks if she’s beaten’ Should win comofrtbably.

Moonlight Cloud: Turned into a top class sprinter when dropped down from the mile last season (didn’t stay in the Guineas) when winning Longchamp Group 3 and then smashing Society Rock in Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville; Got absolutely no run when fifth here on Champions Day but as good as ever over 7f on Longchamp return and has to be respected with the rain of late only going to help her chances; Main rival to Black Caviar.

Bogart: Looked like a useful horse when winning on debut and went onto become a money spinner with two wins in valuable contests as a juvenile; All that class seemingly retained with strong travelling comeback at York but hard to fancy after being below that form at Haydock next time.

Es Que Love: Improved as a 3 year old, winning handicaps at Pontefact and Newmarket (very strong form for the grade) before acquitting himself well enough stepped up in class, going too hard from front in Listed contest and then ending up half a length behind subsequent listed winner Mirza off same

Restidargent: Looked as if she’d have a future as a sprinter when winning French Group 2 by five lengths on last juvenile start; Satisfactory comeback behind Mashoora and supplemented for Duke Of York, but ran poorly when seventh there and others make more appeal today despite softening of the ground.

VERDICT: The moment we’ve all been waiting for as BLACK CAVIAR makes her first overseas start after a brilliant Australia career which has seen her go 21 races unbeaten, most on the bridle. With a draw of 15 (nearest the stands side rail) not set to cause any problems, this should be all about watching the supermare strut her stuff. She’s too short to back at 1/4, but we should all be greatful she’s come here. Those who must have an interest are steered towards the 6/4 on her winning the race up to including 3 & ¼ lengths; Connections have stated that “just an inch will do” and while she’s much the best, the ground might make an exaggerated winning margin less likely, while Like Nolen has been easy on her when the race is won in the past. Finding the value elsewhere is a hard task, with all the value gone from the top class French sprinter Moonlight Cloud, so those who are looking for a big priced horse to place might want to consider  Pastoral Player (who went brilliantly over 7 furlongs last time and does have some soft ground form), while Society Rock might appeal to some as an each/way bet at 14/1 – this is a course specialists race – although he was well beaten by Freddie Head’s filly at Deauville last year and not much looks to have changed since. Krypton Factor is a Group 1 winner in his own right, but he would want the ground faster than this and looks better on tapeta.