This year’s European Championships have already been a feast
of exciting technical football and today’s Group D opener France v England – tradionally
named Le Crunch - has all the ingredients to make a real firecracker. Those with long memories will remember the
last time these two met in a competitive game, where Sven Goran Eriksson’s men self-destructed
after controlling the match upto the last 10 minutes, where Zindeine Zidane’s
free kick and penalty condemned them to an opening game defeat.
That was a long time ago, but a similarly tight, nervous and
exciting game should be on the cards today with France now considered by many
to be rightful favourites after a string of heavy injuries for England. The loss of Manchester City’s Gareth Barry and
Champions League winners Frank Lampard and Gary Cahill was very ill timed,
while even Jack Wilshere and Kyle Walker’s long term absence has to be
considered a great blow; The absence of Rio Ferdinand (for supposed “Footballing
reasons”) is discouraging with John Terry – likely to replace their having had
one of his weaker seasons, with Chelsea’s improvement generally coming from
other figures (such as Lampard. The improvement of Leighton Baines over the
last season or two has somehow not resulted in him destabilizing Glen Johnson
at right back (the only reason presumably being the positional sense), with
Hodgson not wanting to unsettle the second fullback position at this level. James Milner is an admirable, hardworking,
energetic midfielder who has been excellent for Manchester City this season but
the preferable situation would rather be to have him as a central midfielder
rather than a winger, with Patrice Evra looking weaker going back on himself
rather than forward. Glen Johnson will have a hard task against the Ribery/Evra
axis, while Florent Malouda – often underrated at Chelsea and a solid performer
under Blanc – can always join in.
Samir Nasri has is work cut out against Ashley Cole but Stewart Downing has a lot to prove after
a season which draw no goals or assists for a team that often had the lion’s
share of possession in Liverpool, and Lille’s Mathieu Debuchy should fancy his
chances of keeping him quiet, although Cole will be a different matter. Scott
Parker and Steven Gerrard are a tough midfield although Alou Diarra is expected
to provide a solid backup for the loss of Yann M’Villa, who’s vast experience
should protect Phillipe Mexes and Adil Rami, who may have looked vulnerable at
times but have been a long favoured defensive paring of Blanc’s, in a team that
is likely to be sharper defensively than in recent friendlies for the inclusion
of a specialist holding man in the midfield.
Samir Nasri, Franck Ribery and the fearsome Karim Benzema (above) make for a fearsome front three – especially when you not that Benezema scored
21 league goals for Madrid in that system and will be the focal point of the attacks
from midfield. In comparison, England
are likely to miss Wayne Rooney badly with his suspension for the first two
games likely to prove crucial. If getting the chances, Ashley Young and Danny
Wellbeck are more than good enough to take whatever chances’ they’re given,
with the on – the break – style that Roy Hodgson employed successful in landing
two 1-0 wins against Norway and Belgium. Those looking to back the Three Lions
should be looking heavily towards that score, but we’ll supplement our Group
bets on France with a smallish bet on them for this encounter, while we’re
mindful of the fact that they could be exposed on the break, so a 2-1 correct
score bet with Paddy Power – who will give moneyback if England win on this and
other markets – proving to be the perfect hedge, as a draw would not be a
killer blow at this early stage, although, our second tournament bets are
obviously preferred today.
Advice
2 pts France (6/4 general)
1 pt 2-1 France (9/1 Paddy Power)
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