The gradual change in test rugby and high level sport in
general has made tries scarcer than ever in test rugby but the tryscoring
markets still offer plenty of opportunity for punting and tournament tips
Ireland can score the most tries this year.
Favourites Wales are also understandably market leaders in a
tight betting heat, with them and Ireland exclusively preferred, having both
Scotland and Italy at home, and the 7/2 Bet365 offer about Ireland makes the
most appeal. Johnny Sexton’s had some shaky starts for a misfiring Racing Metro
team but a dominant performance and a try against an admittedly understrength
Toulouse last week should have set him straight and should there be a
recurrence of his injury there should be no repeat of the collapse Ireland
suffered last year with Paddy Jackson transformed over the last year for Ulster
and now a far more confident, strong and robust flyhalf than the one that
missed several scoring opportunities against Scotland and failed to see out a
promising first half performance against France. Jackson’s connection with
fellow Ulsterman Luke Marshall is a feature of Schmidt’s first 6 Nations side
and should help for backline unity, while a strong and powerful pack has also
dotted down plenty for a side that has scored at least 9 tries on every
occasion since 2000 before last year.
In tryscoring terms, Stuart Lancaster’s England, while prime
contender, look to be worth backing against on rather high trylines set by
bookmakers. The highest line is 10 tries for Lancaster’s men, double what they
scored last year, but that makes no appeal. The fixtures now turn in England’s
favour with Ireland and Wales at home but that doesn’t necessarily mean an
avalanche of tries and Scotland and Italy will take shifting before scores come,
as Lancaster should know only too well after scoring two chargedown tries
against Scotland and Italy respectively, while Wales have held them scoreless
on their last two meetings. The 4/6 on Under 9.5 tries looks to be a banker but
the evens on eight or under is worth a gamble as it’ll be a hard reach with
France first up this weekend and a new backline coming together for the first
time, much like in Lancaster’s first season.
With the Lions tour behind them, France are expected to take
a lot of beating for the title but the crucial statics still say different and
it’s worth remembering that they hosted England and Ireland when only fourth
two years ago, and there’s improvement to be found if they want to beat either
of the top three. It may be forthcoming, but with things as they are, the 13/2
on them finishing fourth makes appeal should the worst happen.
The 5/6 that Ladbrokes offer on 100 points for Ireland
should make appeal with Scotland and Italy at home but England are a remarkably
stingy side at Twickenham and for all their woes, so are France, so that and
the call for under 10 tries will be left alone.
Advice
1 pt Ireland to score most tries (7/2 Bet365)
2 pts England under 8.5 tries (evs Paddy Power)
1 pt France to finish 4th (13/2 general)
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