French Derby 2012 (Otherwise known as the Prix Du Jockey Club)

Chantilly 3.15

Prix Du Jockey Club (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €958,200

Advice: 2 pts win French Fifteen (5/1 Skybet), 1 pt each/way Saint Baudolino (9/1 Bet365)

Lunayir: Beaten only a neck by Hermival on debut and second to Albion on reappearance doesn’t look at all bad now with that horse running Kesampour to just a head in the Prix Greffulhe; Had to work extremely hard to get better of Telstar (not helped form) and Last Train (well-liked by connections but not lived totally upto hype); Booking of Johnny Murtagh always interesting although draw of 15 is an offputting factor.

Kesampour: Unbeaten in four starts so far, impressing with  faultless seasonal debut in the Listed Prix Francois Mathet when getting the better of Top Trip (gave from boost when winning Prix Hocquart), and then showing good attitude to follow up in Prix Greffulhe, winning more easily than distance of a neck would suggest; Deserves respect here.

Ektihaam: Looked to have a big future when winning first two juvenile races with something in hand and got over Dewhurst disappointment quickly when giving weight and a fair beating to Wrotham Heath before pushing Bonfire (himself a high class colt) all the way in Dante Stakes at York; Reason to think he can do better still if settling early on today and has to be high on anyone’s list.

French Fifteen: Rapidly progressive with racing last year, improving from Listed win and 3 length defeat to Abtaal at Saint Cloud with impressive Group 1 win in Criterium International on his final start last season; Came back in good style when landing the Prix Debej and then pushed Racing Post Trophy winner (Derby favourite) Camelot all the way in the 2,000 Guineas, going down by little more than a neck; That form amongst best in field and always shaped as if middle distances would suit, so has to be the one to beat here.

Amaron: Interesting based on staying on fourth in French Guineas, although that race worked out as much of a muchness with no more than 3 lengths covering the first three home; German form looks solid enough but drawn 18 of 10 which is an absolute shocker.

Saint Baudolino: Beaten favourite on his first two starts but as with so many from his yard, made leaps and bounds of progress with racing and quickened very smartly to beat Sofast when getting through tight gap in Prix De Guiche at Chantilly last time out, having looked trapper on the rail for much of the home race; Has to be given consideration with plum draw in stall 3 sure to suit.

Gregorian: Shaped like a future handicap winner for sure when winning Doncaster maiden on 3^rd start and confirmed he has future when winning handicap there off 88; Close up fifth in French Guineas being used by many to weight down the form of said race and others are much more appealing here.

Silver Northern: 10 race maiden who was flattered just to get to within 5 lengths of Saint Baudolino last time, and has the 19 draw.

Imperial Monarch: Impressed many onlookers when fairly walking away with his maiden at the Curragh on one and only 2yo start, and confirmed impressions when landing Bet365 Classic trial at Sandown, with jockey Joesph O’Brien opting to take very wide route on account of atrocious ground; That form been boosted by Derby fourth Thought Worthy being in second and can be expected to come on for that, so has to be respected even though Ballydoyle have never won this, gaining just 1 place from 19 runners since 2002.

Hard Dream: Unbeaten in three since finishing last on debut at Toulouse, winning events at Bordeaux and Toulouse again before running on strongly to win Prix Noallies in heavy ground; Needs much more here in far deeper race.

Sir Jade: Progressed from all weather wins at Cagnes-sur-Mer over the winter when making the frame in Listed race before close third in Group 2 Prix Hocquart; This far tougher and beaten cosily by Top Trip in the end, so best to look elsewhere.

Tifongo: Career best effort when second in Prix Noaillies but got to set his own pace out in front in heavy ground and this a different affair altogether with much better field and well contested lead on the cards.

Most Improved: Lived up to his name after being run out of things on debut when romping away with Newmarket maiden after close 3^rd on debut, and proved merit of that when chasing home talented pair of Irish colts in Power and Parish Hall in Dewhurst; Became very much a talking horse over the winter but lameness saw him miss Craven Stakes and then again 2,000 Guineas, which sees him starting here; Can’t imagine problem with 10 furlongs but this his first run back and that in itself presents a major question.

Albion: Didn’t look special at 2 but much better horse this year already, beating reopposing Lyunair before running Kesampour to a head; Big price strictly on that form although he was never really threatening to beat that rival and his wide draw in 17 makes things very difficult for him.

Valdo Bere: Confirmed promising debut to score at Longchamp but been put in his place by Kesampour, and then again by Hard Dream on last two starts; Hard to enthuse.

Hidden Flame: As if it wasn’t bad enough that he’s a 2 race maiden who’s come no better than fourth, he’s also drawn the widest gate of them all; Can’t win.

Saonois: Had Tifongo back in fifth when landing Longchamp Group fourth before coming close fourth in Prix Greffulhe; Hard to see him reversing the form with Kesampour from that race and drawn very poorly.

Top Trip: Just the one start at 2, showing plenty of promise on the AW at Deauville; Always ran well but much of a muchness until landing the Prix Hocquart with a late dash latest; Form of that race debateable beforehand and one would think that Kesampour can confirm earlier form, having being well beaten by Top Trip in the Francois Mathet; Strong pace should really help him.

Nutello: Won three of his first four starts, being well placed on each occasion by Olivier Peslier; Beaten on two other occasions though, as a 2 year old when behind Topeka and then when nearer last than first in the French Guineas; Worry about him staying and then still being good enough.

Sofast: Looked as if he’d make a much better horse stepped up in trip when second to Dabirsim on two occasions last year (made rapid late ground in Prix Jean Luc); Behind Dabirsim and Dragon Pulse on 1^st start in Prix La Force but made Saint Baudolino work for every stride in the Prix La Guiche here over 9 furlongs; Likely to be suited by the stronger gallop that should be on offer here and not discounted.

VERDICT: A wide open renewal with a maximum field full of colts who are likely to have more to give for a strongly run race, if that possibility materializes. With 20 horses turning up, the draw’s likely to have a massive effect, although Lope De Vega was able to win this from stall 20 2 years ago when breaking well from the front. FRENCH FIFTEEEN’s form credentials for this are already strong, with his Group 1 win last October promising him to see him improve for a trip, and his two efforts this year (showing the speed to win a slowly run Prix Dejebel, before pushing runaway Derby winner Camelot to a head in the 2,000 Guineas) now look even better in hindsight, and if getting all the breaks, then he has to be the one to beat here. A strong forigen challenge has come from the continent but the last two successful raiders were Shamardal (2005) and Holding Court (2000), which is a put off for the chances of Imperial Monarch, Ektihaam, Most Improved and Gregorian, with Ballydoyle having only one place from their last 19 runners and John Gosden having missed the frame from four attempts. Most Improved’s form looks decent now but this is his first run of the season, which puts a huge ask on him, while Georgian’s French Guineas fifth looks dubious (the same reason, along with the poor draw, for not backing Amaron). Imperial Monarch’s stable (as mentioned above) has poor record, but the form of both his wins has worked out well and he’s clearly been highly regarded for quite some time, so he must warrant major respect for a stable carrying all before them this weekend. Kesampour also takes the eye, with his win in the Prix Greffulhe being a lot easier than the margin suggests, and his prime draw also likely to be a help he can go well but two that really interest are SAINT BAUDOLINO and Sofast, who were a closely matched winner and runner up of the Prix Du Guiche. Sofast has long been well regarded by this page and could go well, but there’s a feeling that Andre Fabre’s charge will enjoy the step back upto 10 furlongs and a strong pace should see him in the best light possible. Of the others, Top Trip made most appeal.