As we head into the final, crucial concluding week of the
Giro D’Italia we now have the queen stage. Attacks have been coming thick and
fast as the pure climbers try and take back lost time while we have a three way
young rider fight and people from the top 10 creeping into the picture too, so
without further ado, here is the queen stage.
This stage is notable for being the complete alpine test,
with three climbs that leave us with 50km of climbing through the day, 40km of descending
in treacherous conditions, a pair of 2,000+ metre passes – the only pair in the
race – and severe tests of gradient. Stamina will be crucial
The climbing starts just after 5km of descending, with the
Passo Gavia first up. 17.5km, it has an average of well over 7% for the climb
with sections of 16% in the middle and 10% regularly. It’s unlikely anyone from
the main favourites will attack but it’s a hard test early and the descent is
treacherous so the pressure is on from day 1.
Now we have the feature climb of the Stelvio. Famous for
having everything tough in a climb; Length (21.7km), gradient (it’s 7 but thee
are sections of 12 and the average is let down by the switchbacks), and altitude
(the race’s highest point). The climb is on smooth and wide roads, but a
section of horrendous switchbacks puts the pain on and the endurance alone is
enough for serious damage – it’s going to be an hour for the best to complete
this – if anyone’s not on a going day. Riders will do well to have their
lieutenants intact.
If the climb isn’t testing enough, the descent in today’s
conditions is a matter of staying alive (hopefully not literally) on the Trafoi
hairpins at serious speed. Thankfully the roads start wide but they get narrow
and even without taking risks it’ll be a relief to see no spills. The speeds
obviously are going to expose those who haven’t wrapped up heavily at the top
of the Stelvio.
After some respite for food and drink, we now have the
decisive finish of Val Marello. It’s listed as 22.6km at 6.4 but that’s to be
disregarded as you can see the three tier nature of the climb. The first km are
fast and rolling but then there’s 3km at an average of 8.5% before a descent
and flatter, rolling midsection of 3km – followed by a rise up again with a
section of 7% - 8%. After 5kms of this you have the second flat sections before
the real rolling climb, where rhe average is 6.5% but in reality you change
from 4.4% to 8% in meters. Attacks from the likes of Nairo Quintana looks a
certainty although after the last respite, we have a finish that Gazetta
describes as the “Cobra”, a vicious set of hairpins towards the finish at 10%
with sections of 14%. After all of today’s efforts, explosions are possible
here and there’s a huge amount of time up for grabs right until the end.
This is one for all sorts today and there’s no time to lose
even with the last week all combing after tomorrow’s flat stage. Nairo Quitnana
is meant to have an ear infection just after his anti-biotics but he’s taken
nearly a minute out of Uran so far and if in the same form, won’t have another
finish to suit him nearly as much with Monte Zoccolan on Saturday all about
survival. Much like through last year’s Tour, he’s improving through the race
and needs to go again today with upwards of 2 minutes to go on Uran to take
ahead of the mountain time trial and two other summit finishes.
Pierre Rolland - an astonishing
16/1 over the weekend -rolled in with Nairo Quintana on Montecapiano yesterday,
his best placing in the race yet as he finished first or second of the
favourites for the second time taking to the high mountains. From the
favourite’s group, he’s looked comfortable and powerful, and these hairpins
hold no fears for the man who took a sensational win up L’Alpe D’Huez in 2011.
At 14’s he looks a rock solid each/way bet.
From the rest, Fabio Aru may be willing to strike out again
after his brilliant win up Montecapione before the rest day and is tempting at
8’s ahead of Rafal Makja, who’s still lurking in the background only 2 minutes
off the lead of Uran, with Evans a minute behind. Uran looked stronger on
Sunday but hasn’t looked the happiest on changing climbs and with a time trial
coming up may try and limit losses once again in what should be an epic stage.
Advice
1 pt win Nairo Quintana (3/1 general)
1 pt each/way Pierre Rolland (14/1 general)
Already advised
1 pt each/way Pierre Rolland (16/1 Bet Victor)
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