Euro 2012 - The Final

Just one game stands between Spain and a place among the immortal footballing sides. The likes of Brazil’s 1958-62, 1970-73 and 1998-02 outfits; West Germany’s elite of 1970-76, Hungary’s 1950’s squad, Argentina’s 1980’s one man “hand of god led team”, Italy and Uruguay’s early giants. The reigning European Champions and World Cup winner have become just the fifth team in History (possibly sixth if you take the great Italy side of the 1930’s) to reach the final of three major tournaments, and they’re rated strong favourites to lift the trophy tomorrow. Standing in their way however, is the one team you wouldn’t want to be facing in a final according to not just stereotype, but history, in that most specialist of knockout teams, Italy. Vicente Del Bosque’s side have done things the hard way to get here and so have Cesare Prandelli’s Italy and it’s not hard to see nothing separating them at all, as both teams have pretty much been the same from their first game – a thoroughly entertaining draw – to now in terms of varying performance.

First things first, and in a tight game the biggest value may well be to back the opening time of the first goal to come between 51 and 60 minutes at 11/1. It’s been the case in 3 of the last four finals, but also seems to be a good bet based on the general half time trends surrounding Spain knockout games in general. We all know that Spain’s general style is to seek the ball, keep it between themselves, and stay patient in working out their openings in the absolute belief that their style (however boring some may find it) will eventually be enough to wear down the opposition and win their game regardless of the opposition or the situation. Italy themselves tend not to be opened early on in games – two of their games have been 0-0 at the break, while they’ve not trailed at any point and have sometimes flagged a little just after the half time interval in terms of performance, based on their strong showings before half time during the tournament at least.  It’s a situation that could well see the game starting slowly if Spain can exert the control of the ball they’ve had in previous matches, then it’s more than likely they’ll start growing into the game and get their first serious opportunities entering the beginning of the second half.

Del Boqsue’s men are 5/4 to win in 90 minutes and that’s sure to get its fair share of attention from the general football punting public but that makes no appeal. They’re undoubtedly the best side in the world on their day and deserve massive respect upon that basis but they’ve not impressed totally at this tournament and for all that they’ve not let in a goal in 9 knockout games at this level, they’ve shown more vulnerability now than ever during this tournament and have failed to win 2 of their 5 games in getting ere. Take into account the fact that one of those games was a complete rollover in Ireland (add France’s pathetic effort into that category) and then Croatia giving them big problems, not to mention Italy holding them to a 1-1 draw, and you can see why they might be opposable at least in normal time.

Italy have actually tracked a very similar patch towards Spain. After impressing many more than Spain during the 1-1 draw to open the tournament they then went onto dominate possession against Croatia and Ireland only to miss quite a few chances in games that they dominated, looking vulnerable only in patches. Their performance against England was even more impressive, with the only question over their win being why it didn’t come in 90 or 120 minutes. Much like Spain they’ve had more of the ball, been very hard to beat, and could possibly be accused of scoring less than they should have over the course of the tournament – although I don’t think it could be stretching things to say that they’ve been more entertaining than the Spanish throughought the tournament.

There’s also plenty of evidence to suggest that Italy can overturn Spain in 90 minutes though. Half of Iker Casillas’s 12 saves came against the Azzuri in the 1^st game despite Spain having 64% of possession, and there’s no questioning who was more impressive in the semis. Germany were widely expected to brush aside Italy but instead themselves were blown away by a superb performance from not just Andrea Pirlo and Mario Balotelli (below), but Ricardo Montolivo and especially Antonio Cassano  - crucial in giving Italy the early impetus needed to go on and beat Germany – where Italy attacked with vigour, panache and style from all areas, in a performance that could have seen them score 4 or 5 realistically, with Marchisio missing twice from close range and Di Natale missing a one on one. If they can reproduce the same kind of performance tonight, then there’s a very real chance that they can lift the trophy and the 14/5 on them winning in 90 minutes did tempt me (you can get 8’s on a 1-0 and 16’s on a 2-1) a lot initially after the semi-final win.

Finding a winner between the two is sure to be very hard though, and the draw at 9/4 makes the most appeal out of the three 90 minute outcomes given not just how resilient Spain have been but also Italy’s extraordinary record not just in finals and tournament football, while the same record that some say played such a big part against Germany is evident here, with Prandelli’s (himself unbeaten against La Furjia Roja) side unbeaten since 1920 excusing shootouts in competitive football against the Spanish.  There’s never been a 0-0 in the final of the Euros but this looks to be as close as we’ll get and the 6’s upon that happening looks to have some real mileage tonight of all nights if we have a damp squib, and 1-1 too is tempting – although there’s a general feeling that this game will be tighter than the opening encounter. With 4 of Spain’s 9 knockout games having worked out as 1-0 wins to Del Bosque’s side having been goalless at the break, a repeat at 11’s is too big with Boylesports at 11’s for my liking. And last but not least, Spain to win in extra time also makes appeal. The Spanish method of play traditionally works towards them scoring late, and it was notable how much extra threat the Spainsh carried during extra time against Portugal after disappointing in 90 minutes

The 0-0 half time draw seems to be a good took to have onside but it’s hard to get enthused about a price of just 5/4 for a correct score of any kind and there might be more mileage in backing he time of the first goal to be after 27 minutes with Stan James at 4/5 – only slightly shorter odds than the 0-0 halftime score and a slightly increased chance, which makes sense given that this would have paid out in 3 Italy games so far (inc their meeting against Spain) and that it also would have paid out for Spain against Croatia too. It relies upon a goal being scored but there’s never been a goalless European final in 14 attempts and having backed the 0-0, it makes sense to get onside.

Advice – Outright

3 pts 1st goal after 27 minutes (4/5 Stan James)

1 pt 1^st goal to come during 51-60 minutes (11/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Spain 1-0 (11/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Spain to win in extra time (11/1 Bet365)

1 pt No goalscorer (6/1 Stan James)

Man Of The Match

Andres Iniesta - in a situation
that may be likely to repeat
itself on Sunday -has been Spain's outstanding plater so far this tournament 

In Euro 2008 there were 31 ‘Man of the Match’ awards and not one of the 31 was given to a player that was on the losing team in 90 minutes (or the team that failed to win the trophy during the tournament). 22 of the 31 were awarded to a player that had scored a goal, with 25 of the 31 awards given to players that played either in midfield or attack, while only 2 goalkeepers landed the ‘Man of the Match’ award with the remaining 4 going to defenders. This suggests that – much like the guide to winning player of the tournament – you need to be with a forward from the winning team to land the man of the match performance, especially in the final.

Spain’s Andres Iniesta (above) – one of the three players to win a MOTM without scoring this tournament -e has been named man of the match against Russia, Chile, Paraguay, Holland in the World Cup final, Italy and Croatia (much obliged to Sid Lowe of the Guardian for this) meaning that (from 17 appearances) he’s won the man of the match in over a third of the games he’s played. He’s had 13 shots on target in just 5 games, has been the best player for Spain so far, spends a large amount of time on the ball and has scored crucial goals throughought his career, including the e dramatic late semi-final equaliser from outside the area at Stamford Bridge that guided Barca past Chelsea and into the 2009 Champions League final in Rome, and the winner in the World Cup final (along ith numerous other . Take the 5/1 that he’s Man of the match once again.

Should Spain be turned over by Italy, then it’s obvious that Andrea Pirlo would be the man to get the award; With 3 to his name already he’s sure to be the man that everyone looks to and while he’s not the only outstanding player that Italy have – I have always rated Cassano as Italy’s most important attacking talent – he’s likely to be at the heart of everything the Azzuri do and with the likes of Montlivo, De Rossi and Marchisio all having been subbed in the name of security by Prandelli during the tournament (Casssano having sometimes failed to last out the full 90 minutes) then he becomes a strong favourite to land the award in an Italy win and the price of 5/1 is a good cover.

Advice – Man of the Match

3 pts Andres Iniesta (5/1 general)

1 pt Andrea Pirlo (5/1 general) 

Today's Racing - 30th June 2012

1 pt win Maarek, 2.15 Newcastle (3/1 general)

This looks like a very competitive renewal of the Chipchase Stakes and it would be no surprise to see Maarek claim a Group race on his first attempt, having run well under topweight in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last Saturday. That followed up an excellent win at the Newmarket Guineas weekend when giving more than a stone to the runner up (on ground that was riding soft) while he’s a much better horse than nearly a year or so ago, when just fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup. With the ground as it is, he could well be at an advantage and the booking of Graham Lee (riding with style on the flat and already winner of a big sprint this season) is a notable pointer to his chance.

1 pt win Sandreamer, 2.30 Newmarket (5/2 general)

Mick Channon may have gone without a 2 year old winner at at Royal Ascot but it wasn’t for lack fo trying and his best 2 year old might have been at home the whole time. In anticipation of a price too short to tip (in all realism) about the impressive winner Newfangled (while having also tipped John Gosden and William Buick for the top jockey and trainer titles) , I was all ready to have Sandreamer as my value each/way pick, but she was withdrawn and

A Moyglare Stud Stakes entry, she made a very promising start to life when travelling strongly on the outside and then finding plenty when push came to shove in a maiden on the Rowley Mile, where she had today’s rival Tipping Over (herself an impressive winner on her next start) well back, with the runner up having also come from that maiden, which itself has produced two Group winners in the last 2 seasons. Her chances seem obvious but if I was prepared to put her up at Royal Ascot, I see nowhere else to look for the winner of the Empress Stakes.

1 pt each/way Pizazzo Blanco, 3.20 Newcastle (8/1 Bet Victor)

The fact that this year’s Northumberland Plate is even on is a huge credit to the groundstaff at Newcastle, and they get the first word in what’s a typically competitive Plate, although the ground (heavy as anything and unraceable until yesterday) is sure to play a big part in proceedings. It’s also why Ile De Re – a game winner of the Chester Cup on ground that was so soggy they had to flat start the race – is as short as 7/2 for such a competitive event despite the 8lbs rise he’s incurred for that race. Expect Donald McCain’s runner to go very close on account that he’ll keep going when others cry enough, but he’s a touch short for this event now having been nearly double the price earlier in the week.

John Gosden has carried all before him in recent weeks and his Palazzo Bianco, who has always promised to thrive for a strong saying test and gave the impression he was coming to the boil when rallying late for third in a strong 2 mile handicap at Haydock last time out. He’s been beaten on his last 4 starts but he’s got solid form on all of them (twice behind progressive horses) and he might well be at his peak today, so the 8/1 makes each/way appeal.  Being rated in the band of 85-93 (which had produced 9 of the last 10 winners) and carrying 8-2 ( a very handy weight in the recent history of this affair) he looks to be an ideal winner on trends and a stall of 7 could prove be a great help even if a wide draw isn’t the hindrance it used to be.

1 pt each/way Montaff (12/1 general, 14/1 Bet Victor)

Best of the rest here looks to be Mick Channon’s Montaff, who has a mind of his own and can be nothing but inconsistent, but off a mark 11lbs lower than when second last year he’s impossible to leave out. He’s run a succession of shockers since for his mark to drop that low, but the one placed effort in his last six was when he was behind Gulf Of Naples at Ripon on soft ground, a run for which he is now 3lbs better off with Mark Johnston’s charge. He won on heavy ground as a 2 year old and has others several good efforts on a softer surface to his name, so the ground shouldn’t be too much of a worry for him, and it’s not hard to think that he could run another big race yet again.

Mark Johnston’s Gulf Of Naples is the form choice and well in after his third in the Ascot Gold Cup, while he also goes on all sorts of ground (particularly enjoys soft), but there has to be a worry about how hard a race he had that day; If at top form you’d say he’d be winning but a second slog in two weeks might be beyond him. Lexington Bay’s first two starts give him an excellent chance (well ahead of Palazzo Bianco in one, and only slightly worse off) and he should be forgiven his latest effort at York, so he rates as the most appealing third choice. Motivado is sure to stay 2 miles but this is his first run of the season and in these conditions that could count badly against him late on. The Betchworth Kid has a good soft ground record and it’s not so long ago that he was running in better races than these and with credit but he’s looked out of sorts (albeit when a running on third last time), while the rest don’t make the appeal of the others.

Irish Derby 2012

7.40 Curragh

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €725,000

Akeed Mofeed: As highly rated as Born To Sea from the same yard last season,  drawing right away in the style of a group class horse when winning his maiden, an impression he confirmed when a good second to David Livingston in the Beresford Stakes; That race turned into a bit of a slog on heavy ground, which didn’t allow Akeed Mofeed to show his superiority that day, but he cut a gap of two lengths to a half-length at the finish and still retains a lot of potential; Worry is that he’s been held up ever since and this his first run of the year, while suspicion is he hates this ground.

Astrology: Stepped up majorly on his two year old form when running away with Dee Stakes (not much of a race) before superb third in Derby under front running ride; Then sent to Royal Ascot but that clearly too soon afterwards when beaten early after turn in, and this will be same story after just eight more days.

Born To Sea: Highly rated (full brother to champion Sea The Stars) and had been making good fist of living upto reputation to be fair to him, atoning for Guineas disappointments with better efforts the last twice in Irish Guineas her and then in St James’s Place Stakes (should have been closer on both occasions); Steps up in trip markedly here and not sure we’ll see best of him on this ground just after a hard race at Royal Ascot.

Camelot: Confirmed himself the unrivalled top 3 year old colt with authoritative and impressive Derby win at Epsom to follow the immense promise that his wins in Racing Post Trophy and 2,000 Guineas gave; This should be a formality based on that form but slight worry over what heavy ground presents for him and avoidable from a betting point of view on that basis.

Imperial Monarch: Looked a horse with a future when winning first two starts (maiden and Group 3 at Sandown, both of which have gone onto work out well), with more in hand than winning distance suggests on both occasions; Sent to French Derby last time and shaped as best horse in the race when one of worst affected by barging that took place at the end of the home straight, being shuffled back to last before rattling home for eighth; May well have won that day with better passage and this trip sure to be up his street, with ground no problem; Rates a massive threat.

Light Heavy: Impressive progress made this season after his third on only 2yo start, winning two Derby trials in contrasting styles after impressive reappearance win at Leopardstown; Looks a good horse but not sure about him on soft ground (despite the fact he’s improved since 2^nd on debut) and up in trip despite pedigree; Others preferred.

Speaking Of Which: Hugely impressive when spread-eagling the opposition in the Gallinule Stakes last time, drawing right up the straight to win by 9 lengths from lower ranked Ballydoyle runner Soon; Not hard to think he could be even better than that and did look a Group 1 horse there, so a disappointment in some ways that the rain has come to cast a doubt over his chances; One to watch.

VERDICT: This revolves around Camelot, who has confirmed the superstar impression he gave us at two with wins in the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby, looking like a potential top notcher when making up several lengths upon Astrology in the latter and winning easily in the end. The withdrawal of Imperial Monarch - a horse who has no end of talent along with a love of testing ground based on his first two wins - has rendered the race completely useless from a betting perspective for me personally, and it's to be hoped that we see a Camelot win - and an easy one at that - along with Imperial Monarch sooner rather than later. 

Railway Stakes 2012

6.30 Curragh

Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Railway Stakes (group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner €57,150

Advice: 1 pt win Pedro The Great (5/2 general)

Almanck: Form of 1^st start has been well represented by runner up since (twice a winner) and then ran out an easy enough winner of maiden that has since worked out well enough (Gale Force Ten since won maiden and then second in Norfolk);Should give this good go and 6f fine.

Ayaar: Shaped well on debut when making some good late headway into fourth behind impressive winner Master Of War at Haydock but never really looked like winning at Newbury and others preferred here.

Cristforo Colombo: Looked like one of the best early season 2 year olds seen so far when running out a ready and easy winner at Navan first time up and ran a screamer in the Coventry when running on strongly having come from nearly widest of all when third late on; Worry that could have taken something out of him late on.

Pedro The Great: Had no impact when fifth in Listed event on debut but showed his real self when running out a ready winner of his maiden at Leopardstown on soft ground, making easier work of things as he went on; No surprise to see him put up bold show.

Probabaly: Third in good maiden here behind Letir Mor and Lines of Battle at the Curraghon debut and followed that up with easy win in Limerick maiden; Bit of ground to make up in favourite through Lines Of Battle on C&D form but respected nevertheless.

Scotland Forever: Too keen on debut when showing nothing and outpaced around Epsom’s quick track (didn’t handle it) when

Tiger Stripes: Behind Probably to the tune of 2 & ½ lengths on debut here and then couldn’t make it as favourite when fifth at Fairyhouse last time; Needs much more.

VERDICT: With Ballydoyle having won 7 of the last 10 renewals lots of attention’s sure to go to Cristforo Colombo, and his third in the Coventry is the strongest form, but soft ground is an unknown for him and the fact that PEDRO THE GREAT was pitched into Listed company on debut speaks a lot for him, and his easy maiden win last time suggested that he’s group class. Probably and Almanck deserve respect here although the ground might be a problem for him. 

Today's Racing - 29th June 2012

1 pt win Emirates Queen, 4.45 Doncaster (3/1 general)

The betting has this down as a 3 horse race between Coplow, Shada and Emirates Queen, and of those three Luca Cumani’s Emirates Queen makes by far the most appeal. Beaten 18 lengths into sixth by Irish History on her debut at Windsor, this half-sister to Dubawi wouldn’t have looked anything out of the ordinary, but she clearly wasn’t ready on the day and never was tried with seriously. Over today’s trip of 1m2f with that behind her, I imagine that this will be the first time we get to see her real ability and while 3’s is a bit shorter than I’d hoped for, it’s a good sign that there’s enough  market confidence behind her chances.

Shada looks to be a genuine threat with the step up in trip sure to suit from her only two year old start, when she was third behind Diala and Lyric of Light on the Newmarket July Course, although she might improve from this start, having been off the track since her debut. Coplow is said by many to have set the standard, but she’s got no win in 5 now and looks eminently beatable to be honest, with Starscope having been her clear superior last year on their one meeting in a Newbury maiden. Miracle Maid can do better than her fifth in the Pretty Polly last time but that race doesn’t look so strong and she was beaten out of sight.

1 pt win Summer Dream, 6.30 Newmarket (5/1 general)

Marco Botti’s Summer Dream may have been no match for impressive Albany winner Newfangled on her debut here but she shaped well herself and might be too big at 5/1 to land what looks like a strong maiden at the second time of asking. The Nicharos owned runner was very slow from the stalls at the beginning (last early) and was trapped for a run most of the way through, but then gave the impression that she would be much better second time out when staying on into third late on behind the impressive winner and well fancied second, and while a step up in trip to 7 furlongs might be better, she has a right to be a bit shorter than 5/1 for tonight’s assignment.  Sugar House is a rightful favourite for back to form Godolphin – who always do well here with their 2 year olds – but she takes up a lot of the market at 2/1 and I’m not sure whether she should be so short in what’s a well contested maiden if you count Testamatta, who comes from the same yard as the selection and was third (when ridden by Ted Durcan as well) in a 6 furlong maiden that has produced some useful types down the years.

2 pts win Ultrasonic, 8.05 Newmarket (7/2 general)

Sir Michael Stoute’s form has taken a much needed turn for the better with important and small victories during the last week, and his Ulstrasonic looks to be one of the best chances of the day for him and Ryan Moore (who themselves have a strong chance of a double at Doncaster) in a competitive conditions stakes at Newmarket’s July Course.

Pitched into listed company- where she was a respectable fourth - after a taking winning debut at Yarmouth, she could do no better than eighth on her return at Newmarket in a competitive sprint handicap but that ran clearly wasn’t her, with the yard in much poorer form than it was now and her having been caught well wide against some good looking sprinters in a hot race. Dropped to 5 furlongs last time she was a good third in the Scurry Stakes, and while she might have been a little flattered to finish so close to Pearl Secret and Free Zone there, it was an encouraging run and one that says she’ll be better over todays’ trip.

James Fanshawe’s Halleujah wasn’t worked hard to land a handicap on just her fourth start at Goodwood, and the fact that connections haven’t gone again for a handicap off a mark of just 88 could be seen as a tip in itself, Catfish looks to be getting her ground just in time and must be respected upon the basis of her possibly unlucky third in the Epsom Dash, and Pearl Diva’s Listed second commands respect, but Ultrasonic is the only place I’m looking for the winner here.

Euro 2012 Semi Final - Germany v Italy

Phillip Lahm, Jerome Boateng and Mats Hummels could put Germany
through to the final if they keep Italy out 

Germany have been one of the most impressive, if not the most impressive, teams at Euro 2012 and they can put themselves in the final by beating Italy on Thursday and righting many past wrongs along with that. The Germans have never beaten the Italians in a competitive match and there have been 4 draws in the last eight meetings between the two but this German outfit is a completely different animal to recent years and recent history has been broken already at these championships, with both England and Spain breaking certain curses relating towards them having never beaten opponents in competitive football, proving that it’s all about the here and now at the top level nowadays and this Germany outfit looks a cut above recent editions and well capable of going onto win the tournament.

The last time these two met – one of the best, if not the best games of a the World Cup 6 years ago – German hearts were broken with the last two touches of the game being the 2 goals that sent Italy through in a truly deserved win, and Joachim Loew’s men have since gone heartbreakingly close in not only the 2008 European Championships but also the 2010 World Cup, going out to Spain both times after, but they should now be the complete package after 2 years to mature from their World Cup exploits.

They may have been handed the easiest quarter final draw against Greece but they were still deeply impressive in wiping aside the 2004 winners, where they could and should have scored far more than 4 goals, but they had previously won all of their games in the Group of death, beating Portugal - now semi-finalists themselves – Holland and Denmark with a relative amount of ease despite not having been at their best according to quite a few people, although they were the better team against Holland and Denmark on balance while they were patient enough to break down Portugal despite looking blunt during the early stages.  It’s their tournament opener that described the progress that Germany have made in the last two years. While they were the most exciting team for many at the World Cup, they’d moved from a team that thrived upon an counter attacking towards a team that could probe and find the opening against teams they weren’t willing to chase the game. It’s given them a new dimension and probably is going to be the approach they’ll have to take to beat an Italian side who are amongst the most defensively skilled in Europe.

Don’t let that fool you though. The Italian National side has often been seen as a stoic defensive unit which offers little going forward but that approach would be wrong when used to describe Cesare Prandelli’s side, who completely dominated possession against England and would have been tragic losers on penalties having dominated the whole 90 minutes and extra time to a greater extent - Italy had more shots on target in their quarter-final match than England had in total in their four matches in Ukraine.  The standard of a side like Germany won’t worry them either; They gave Spain as good a game as any in their opener despite being dominated in possession terms, creating some of the better chances in that game and being unlucky not to score more than just one. And that’s where the problem lies; Italy, for all of their play – and it can be a feast on the eyes to watch – don’t score enough goals. Prandelli’s side should have had England put away before the end of normal time on Sunday, while the same can be said of their match against Croatia, where they had enough chances to put the game to bed before the interval, only to be reeled back late on.

Any such profligacy against Germany will go punished severely and it’s to be hoped that Cassano – who cause so many problems for the Spanish, Croatians and Irish during the group stages – can have a more effective game against Germany, while Balotelli found position but lacked coolness against England; Both must improve. A major factor may also be the 48 hour gap between the two quarter finals, with Germany not only able to count upon rotation to work in their favour (Klose, Reus and Schurrle could easily be replaced once again by Muller, Gotze and leading scorer Mario Gomez) , but Italy having played a 120 minutes on Sunday in warm Kiev heat, while they also came out of that game with injury concerns around defenders Ignazio Abate and Giorgio Chiellini and midfielder Daniele De Rossi. Abate could be replaced by Napoli’s Cristian Maggio but Chiellini and De Rossi are pivotal to success, and their fitness carried a huge role in the outcome of this game.

Whether fit or not, the clear choice in this game is Germany, who represent a strong bet at 10/11 and are also worth backing to win by a 1 goal margin, which has been the case in all of their games apart from Greece so far; Indeed Germany haven’t kept a clean sheet in 9 fixtures, so look towards the 2-1 correct score (already occurred twice) as a source of value if you don’t want to get involved in the short price about a 90 minute win. Coupled with a 0-0 half time score (a common occurrence in these semi finals), it pays 66/1. In expectation of a tight game, having the 0-0 onside at half time – or the draw in any fashion, with the draw/draw double result helping to cover against an Italian blockade and reduce losses. 

Advice

3 pts Germany (10/11 general)

1 pt Draw/Draw (4/1 general)

1 pt Half Time Score 0-0 - Full time score 2-1 Germany (66/1 Boylesports) 

Euro 2012 Semi Final - Spain v Portugal

It’s a mark of how good this tournament has been that we come here with all 4 semi-finalists (Spain, Portugal, Germany and Italy) being truly deserving of their place at this stage; They’ve been the 4 best teams at this tournament. A relatively incident free tournament which has seen 69 goals, just the 3 red cards, only the one goalless draw and several top quality goals in the most important games, has now boiled down to arguably the cream of the crop, and Spain are rated just a shade of odds on to set up a meeting with either Italy or Spain by beating Portugal, the last of the 3 tips we have left running tonight. As World and defending champions that’s understandable and many punters – including those lucky enough to get odds against about them beating Croatia and an extremely below par France – are sure to give strong support to the still tournament favourites, who come here incredibly trying to defend their legendary tiki – taka football in the wake of a “boring” victory over France, with some Spanish media and many fans suggesting that they’d been unambitious in their 2-0 win over Laurent Blanc’s side.

Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be at the focal point of Portugal's Euro 2012
challenge........

Saturday’s 2 goal hero Xabi Alonso has defended his team’s style of play, saying that "Whatever people say I don't think we are going to change" but some perspective is needed.  The Spanish have scored 8 goals so far in the tournament and lead nearly every attacking stat according to Opta’s statistical data, and those who seem to find issue with their play must surely recoil at the style of teams such as losing quarter finalists England and Greece, both of whom mustered just 5 goals while playing stoic football.  The main reason that Saturday’s quarter final didn’t offer much enjoyment for enthusiasts would be the limp performance of Laurent Blanc’s side who started with 2 right backs and never offered any real threat going forward. It’s been a surprise not to see them shoulder most of the blame for that limp night in Ukraine. That’s not to say that Spain have been the best side at Euro 2012 – that award at this stage has to go to Germany – but they’ve still be one of the highest quality side and they’re sure to take the beating. Whether they should be just evens to accomplish the toughest task they’ve had so far is another matter altogether, with both Italy and Croatia having made them sweat hard for extended periods of the game.

...While Andres Iniesta has been Spain's outstanding player of the 

And what of Portugal? Initially in our portfolio to cover for Holland possibly underperforming, Paulo Bento’s men have improved in bundles since their opening defeat to Germany (where they offered too much time to Germany before producing a very catching late rally in the last 20 minutes) and belied – to some extent – quotes of 20/1 being banded about them winning the tournament beforehand.  Ever since then they’ve been far more forward and far more entertaining, and while their threat does come mainly from Cristiano Ronaldo, it’s a strategy that has worked well for them though, with Ronaldo leading the Golden Boot on 3 goals having had more shots than anyone at the tournament.

There’s a slight worry that if Ronaldo can be stopped then Portugal have no threat and thanks to the lack of a proper striker – only Silvestre Varela has really had an impact in their games so far – that’s probably true, but everything else about them seems to be good, as they have one of the best defences in the competition (Bruno Alves and Pepe have been outstanding so far) while Fabio Coentrao, João Pereira and João Moutinho all have genuine quality. Spain will be a tough task for them but they made things very awkward for the Spainsh at the last World Cup and may be dare I say, a better side this time?

There’s no value for us in backing Portugal at 7/2 (considering that if they make the final they would reward an each/way bet at 20/1) or the Spanish at odds against, although plenty of people will be interesting in doing so. Spain have not conceded a goal in their last eight knockout fixtures, with Italy, Russia, Germany, Portugal, Paraguay, Germany again, Holland, and France trying (add “” for Blanc’s Frenchmen) and failing to breakdown their rear-guard in knockout action. 5 of those games, including the last competitive Iberian Derby at the World Cup, have been goalless at half time, which would make best such as the half time draw and 0-0 half time score very obvious.  What’s more notable is that 4 of those games have ended 1-0 to Spain after a goalless first half, and the same eventuality at 17/2 with Paddy Power seems to be a very good hedge against the disappointment of our outright fancies going out if Spain starve Portugal of the chances to make an impact on the game, while Portugal themselves are resolute when they want to be, having frustrated Germany until a lucky break gave Gomez the opportunity. Another strong Spain trend is for most of the goals to be in the second half – which has been the case against Ireland, Italy, and Croatia so far this tournament, while it was the case with their World Cup run to the final – and Portugal too have been involved with games that have come to life after the break, with their opener against Germany and their quarter final against the Czech Republic both being settled by late goals.

Advice

3 pts 2^nd half highest scoring (5/4 Betfred)

1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Spain 1-0 (17/2 Paddy Power)

Euro 2012 - England v Italy

All 3 of the European Championship quarter finals have been relatively one sided, with Spain, Germany and Portugal (who completely dominated their quarter final despite winning only 1-0) making a superb set of semi – finalists, but England v Italy looks set to be tightest game of the lot and it’s likely that the record audiences tuning into the BBC will all be biting their fingernails for a long, long time tonight.

England came into this tournament with expectations at their lowest ebb following the displacement of Fabio Capello as manager along with a whole host of injury problems, but new manager Roy Hodgson has done an excellent job with the limited time and resources he’d inherited from the previous reign, grabbing a good result against France before one goal wins v Sweden and Ukraine. For the optimists or hope seekers, there were various positives to come out of those games – England battled back from 2-1 down against Sweden and showed more going forward in that game than any of the 5 other internationals they’ve played under Hodgson – while they did keep France out despite being dominated for the latter half of the game.  Pessimists are sure to notice how many times that Sweden (2 goals from setpieces and 7 shots on targets) and Ukraine (57% of possession and unlucky not to score in their last group game despite being poor) got inbehind a side that’s been famed for their defensive style under Hodgson. 

Italy themselves have always been seen as the most defensive major side in World Football, but they were the most surprising and impressive side for many when holding Spain to a 1-1 draw and creating many of the chances in a well contested game, opening the eyes of many who felt that they hadn’t got much to offer going forward. Prandelli’s slick style of football - they once made more than 800 passes in an entire game during their qualifying – was once again evident when they drew 1-1 with Croatia, going ahead at the 39^th minute in a game that they should have been well clear at half time. Indeed, taking the chances that the likes of Andrea Pirlo – so deeply impressive throughought this tournament – have created has been a major problem for them, with only Mario Balotelli’s goal against Ireland taking them to a 2-0 win. That’s not to say that Italy lack anything going forward; They had the same amount of shots on target as Spain and more than Coratia and it’s fair to say that they should have scored more than once on both occasions, but the lack of goals does have to be considered a worry.

Another worry too for Prandelli has to be the fact they they’ve failed to see out a 90 minute game without letting in a goal for longer than is comfortable until holding out Ireland – who themselves where allowed more chances than comfortable. The injury to Giorgio Chellini is sure to make things even more uncomfortable at that end although they can count on Europe’s tightest defence courtesy of Juventus stoppers Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzgli.

England too are tight when they want to be – the fact that they’ve kept clean sheets in three of their last 5 games emphasizes this – but it’s hard to see them keeping out this Italy side based on their displays so far. With both sides having major strengths and weaknesses, the draw appeals as being the most likely outcome for this game. England have drawn eight of the 12 competitive fixtures since losing to Arengtina in 1986, while Italy have drawn 9 of their 17; A 1-1 draw also makes appeal, with England having scored in 21 of their last 22 internationals while Italy were held to a 1-1 draw twice in the Group stages.

And last but not least, the game to go to penalties at 4/1 also seems to be good value to have onside. England have been taken to penalties at Euro 2004 and at the World Cup 2 years later, while Italy have gone to the death 3 times since 2000.  

Advice

3 pts Draw (2/1 general)

1 pt 1-1 draw (11/2 Bet Victor)

1 pt game to go to penalties (4/1 Stan James, Paddy Power) 

Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud 2012

2.40 Saint – Cloud

Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud (Group 1) (4yo+) (Turf) (4yo+) Winner £190,467

Advice: 6 pts win Danedream (10/11 Blue Sq)

Meandre: Won Grand Prix De Paris last year, benefitting from overly strong pace on very fast ground; That form reversed when Reliable Man (runner up behind him in GPDP) beat him in Niel, and not been at same level since, possibly unsuited by soft ground (no wins on it), when beating in Group 2 and 3 events last twice; Hard to recommend with this likely to be tactical and on soft ground.

Shareta: Exceeded all expectations when second in last year’s Arc as a pacemaker (then seventh in Japan Cup), but seems to proving that not a total fluke, satisfactory comeback in April (gave 7lbs to runner up) followed  by possibly unlucky defeat in Prix Corrida; Still looks easily held by Dandream on last year’s form and might want it faster.

Danedream: Supplemented for Arc breathtaking victory in September 4 in Germany's top race, the Grosser Preis von Baden, where she beat the 2010 winner Night Magic by six lengths in very soft ground; Followed that with superb display in Arc De Triomphe, winning easily in course record time (all three of today’s rivals easily held); Only sixth in Japan Cup but wide draw didn’t help her cause and warmed up for this with nice, easy win in Baden Baden Group 2; Should be spot on today and the one to beat.

Galikova: Built on promise shown at 2 last year when runner up in the Diane and a ready winner of the Prix Vermille, where she had Shareta will behind; Disappointment in Arc but it’s likely that she’s better than that and cut in ground will suit her; That said, 266 days off the track so likely to improve on what she does today.

VERDICT: A real shame that Cirrus Des Aigles – who loves cut in the ground and wasn’t shown at his best in the D’Isphan – isn’t here, although there are still 3 Group 1 winners in this field. Assuming a fair race, it will take a mighty effort to stop Arc winner DANREDREAM, who comes here fit after a warm up win at Baden Baden, has no problem with soft ground, and holds all of her rivals with considerable ease based on her Arc win last time, while Meandre and Shareta have been said to want faster conditions according to their trainers, while Galikova is going to need a carrer best after 266 days off. 

Royal Ascot - Queen Alexandra Stakes

5.35 Royal Ascot (Day 5, Race 6)

Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2)  (4YO plus)

Winner £34,238

Advice: No bet.

Dawn Twister: Respectable stayer who was clear cut winner of Ripon conditions stakes and then fair third in Listed event here on heavy ground; Needs more here and others make more appeal on count of not only form and stamina.

Swingkeel: Needed every single yard of this last year to win but did so in game style and well clear at the end; Not hard to think that everything’s been geared towards him winning once again; Cheekpeices left back on and this will be first race he’s had a proper chance of winning since; Has to be given a chance even with this year’s renewal being th

American Trilogy: Can be enigmatic but talented when it all falls right for him over jumps, and he does get 3 miles well over hurdles as well as going on all sorts of ground; Not hard to see him being involved at all.

Bernie The Bolt: Yet to quite build on the promise that he showed when romping away with 2 mile handicap here a good while back; Travelled well into the race on reappearance at Newmarket; Likely to stay as 2m2f winner at 3 but this demands a lot of him.

Bruslini: Sound start to life for Brian Ellision when third in well contested York handicap over 2 miels and front running 3m Chase wins for Evan Williams confirm that this trip should suit; Still got a lot of ground to make up on best of them.

Dalhaan: Hard to fancy; Modest over hurdles and on the flat, and beaten off mark of 67, which leaves him 20lbs in deficit.

Kangaroo Court: Once very highly rated chaser (especially as a novice), who ran respectably when stepped up in trip to 2m4f and 3 miles; Two from 3 on the flat but they were weak contests as shown by mark of just 80 and passed over.

Moose Moran: Looked to have a future over hurdles when fifth in 2012 Queens Vase’ and drawing right away at end of Doncaster maiden hurdle; Since lost his way and off for too long to consider.

Overturn: Without a doubt the most popular dual purpose performer in training, posting career best when third in Champion Hurdle and then following that up with Heroic Chester Cup second when he tried to run the finish out of his field and succeeded in beating all but stablemate (carried  a dull stone less; that made the difference); Level weights give him tremendous chance and will stay; Hard to beat.

Petara Bay: Gutsy win in 1m6f Goodwood handicap shows that he is a useful horse (was coming backed on some earlier form which had included a fourth in the Northumberland Plate’ Sure that he’d get more than two miles but this is a different kettle of fish and not keen on him being off since July; Percentage call to oppose him today.

Riptide: Hurdles, fences and flat winner but looks outclassed in this company.

Scotsbrook Cloud: Close second off mark in 110’s over fences last time; Won’t lack for stamina at all, but well beaten on one flat start and simply not good enough.

Seaside Sizzle: Stayed on into fourth behind Veiled at Newmarket 5 runs ago and then good second to Hollins at Goodwood; Those hinted at potential but needs to find much more here and while he stays, hard to see him threatening seriously.

Shawardi: Second in Chantilly amateur riders’ race last time out at 1m4f in ground described as very soft, but that form not good enough here by a long stretch; Not a confirmed stayer too so passed over early.

Simenon: Making up into useful hurdler when ground and class were allowing for it and translated that form to flat and more when romping right way with the Ascot Stakes off topweight on Tuesday; Stamina came to the fore there and that gives him a massive chance here, so hard to beat.

Zuider Zee: Top handicapper who didn’t run a bad race last season before winning the November Handicap (romped away with that event) and then again progressed with Listed second and third, probably finding trip too short on both occasions; Latest fourth in Henry II Stakes the best form in the field with winner, second and third all group class over staying trips and promised to stay further than that on same occasion; This a whole half a mile longer, but if staying (drying ground will help in him that regard) has to be given one of the main chances.

Romeo Montague: Unproven at more than 14f and often described as unresolute horse according to form, so can’t see him winning.

Cloudy Spirit: Well suited by step up in trip when landing pair of 2m2f handicaps at Pontefract and York the last twice, both well contested; No problem on stamina count and seems progressive based on that but hard to recommend with the step up in class being a stark one.

Elyaddi: Good record in staying contests at this meeting; Second in 2010 Ascot Stakes and runner up in this last year; Disappointing in that race on Tuesday and also held by Swingkeel on previous running, so others preffered.  

Golden Sunbird: Wouldn’t begin to imagine that she’s be capable of winning a race like on the flat after her second of three on flat debut last month but good over hurdles (placed at Cheltenham Festival); Will stay and stay but others preferred on class edge.

VERDICT: Plenty of deadwood but a few who can be given an outside chance (Swingkeel highest ranked amongst those) and three outstanding chances in Overturn, Simenon and ZUIDER ZEE, all of whom have a class edge on all known form. It’s nearly impossible to pick between the three, but John Gosden’s horse has Group form and looked as if he’d stay further than 2 miles when coming fourth in a strong renewal of the Henry II Stakes last time out, and gets the token choice. 

Royal Ascot 2012 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes

3.45 Royal Ascot (Day 5, Race 3)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £283,550

Advice: 2 pts Black Caviar to win by up To & Including 3.25 Lengths (6/4 Bet365)

Genki: Grand servant to connections, graduating form handicaps to landing several placed finishes in Group sprints; Not quite upto same level since coming fourth in Haydock Sprint Cup and others preferred.

Jimmy Styles: Ninth in this last year and won only once since 2009; placed at listed/Group 3 level on last 3 starts, but hard to see him running big in this sprint and easier opportunities for all.

Krypton Factor: Made some phenomenal progress this season dropped back down (was a sprinter in past life here before moving to UAE) to 6 furlongs on Tapeta, winning Al Shadingha Sprint in style before cutting down Rocket Man in sensational style, although he was helped by a suicidal pace set upfront by Rocket Man; Not as good in Krisflyer sprint when drawn out wide (poor break; Never could land a blow) but worry that he’s got as good as turf and soft ground a problem for him.

Pastoral Player: Always threatened a big race, running a massive race in number of handicaps in marks off 100’s; Blistering turn of foot to mow down rivals in Timeform Jury Stakes and not without chance of big showing once again if repeating that, although might be best on faster ground than this despite coming third in last year’s Wokingham.

Royal Rock: Looked like he could have a future when winning the Bengough Stakes 2 years ago but been largely poor before repeat win over C&D last October; Fourth in British Champions Sprint last year but not at same form this year  when behind The Cheka and Pastoral Player; Others looks better options.

Sirius Prospect; Looked as if he could make into a real group class sprinter when getting the better of Mayson (since won Group 3 Palace House Stakes) in Doncaster’s Wentworth Stakes back in November; Not gone on like runner up has since and hard to fancy here.

Society Rock: Announced himself as classy sprinter when second in this as 3 year old 2 years ago and best run since when landing this last year (soft); Followed that up with second (very well beaten four lengths) in Maurice De Gheest to Moonlight Cloud; Not at same form since but back in good style when third in Duke Of York Stakes, having been blocked for a run; Should shape fitter and make a good first of defending title even if it looks as if he’s going to lose it.

Soul: Listed and Group 2 winner in Australia who won 6f handicap in Dubai off advantageous mark of 109, but well exposed the last twice at Meydan and York and this even harder.

The Cheka: Close third in Park Stakes last year and then behind Pastoral Player in Challenge Cup over 7f here; Doncaster return brought good win and pushed Tiddliwinks to a head in Duke Of York Stakes last time, just ahead of Society Rock;

Black Caviar: Australian supermare who’s been described as one of best sprinters/mares/racehorses of all time; On a 21 race unbeaten streak, with 12 of those being Group 1’s, all of those coming totally on the bridle, with 21 different Group 1 winners (including the exceptional Hay List) amongst her victims; Barely moved to land Goodwood Stakes last time and shock of all shocks if she’s beaten’ Should win comofrtbably.

Moonlight Cloud: Turned into a top class sprinter when dropped down from the mile last season (didn’t stay in the Guineas) when winning Longchamp Group 3 and then smashing Society Rock in Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville; Got absolutely no run when fifth here on Champions Day but as good as ever over 7f on Longchamp return and has to be respected with the rain of late only going to help her chances; Main rival to Black Caviar.

Bogart: Looked like a useful horse when winning on debut and went onto become a money spinner with two wins in valuable contests as a juvenile; All that class seemingly retained with strong travelling comeback at York but hard to fancy after being below that form at Haydock next time.

Es Que Love: Improved as a 3 year old, winning handicaps at Pontefact and Newmarket (very strong form for the grade) before acquitting himself well enough stepped up in class, going too hard from front in Listed contest and then ending up half a length behind subsequent listed winner Mirza off same

Restidargent: Looked as if she’d have a future as a sprinter when winning French Group 2 by five lengths on last juvenile start; Satisfactory comeback behind Mashoora and supplemented for Duke Of York, but ran poorly when seventh there and others make more appeal today despite softening of the ground.

VERDICT: The moment we’ve all been waiting for as BLACK CAVIAR makes her first overseas start after a brilliant Australia career which has seen her go 21 races unbeaten, most on the bridle. With a draw of 15 (nearest the stands side rail) not set to cause any problems, this should be all about watching the supermare strut her stuff. She’s too short to back at 1/4, but we should all be greatful she’s come here. Those who must have an interest are steered towards the 6/4 on her winning the race up to including 3 & ¼ lengths; Connections have stated that “just an inch will do” and while she’s much the best, the ground might make an exaggerated winning margin less likely, while Like Nolen has been easy on her when the race is won in the past. Finding the value elsewhere is a hard task, with all the value gone from the top class French sprinter Moonlight Cloud, so those who are looking for a big priced horse to place might want to consider  Pastoral Player (who went brilliantly over 7 furlongs last time and does have some soft ground form), while Society Rock might appeal to some as an each/way bet at 14/1 – this is a course specialists race – although he was well beaten by Freddie Head’s filly at Deauville last year and not much looks to have changed since. Krypton Factor is a Group 1 winner in his own right, but he would want the ground faster than this and looks better on tapeta.