Euro 2012 Semi Final - Germany v Italy

Phillip Lahm, Jerome Boateng and Mats Hummels could put Germany
through to the final if they keep Italy out 

Germany have been one of the most impressive, if not the most impressive, teams at Euro 2012 and they can put themselves in the final by beating Italy on Thursday and righting many past wrongs along with that. The Germans have never beaten the Italians in a competitive match and there have been 4 draws in the last eight meetings between the two but this German outfit is a completely different animal to recent years and recent history has been broken already at these championships, with both England and Spain breaking certain curses relating towards them having never beaten opponents in competitive football, proving that it’s all about the here and now at the top level nowadays and this Germany outfit looks a cut above recent editions and well capable of going onto win the tournament.

The last time these two met – one of the best, if not the best games of a the World Cup 6 years ago – German hearts were broken with the last two touches of the game being the 2 goals that sent Italy through in a truly deserved win, and Joachim Loew’s men have since gone heartbreakingly close in not only the 2008 European Championships but also the 2010 World Cup, going out to Spain both times after, but they should now be the complete package after 2 years to mature from their World Cup exploits.

They may have been handed the easiest quarter final draw against Greece but they were still deeply impressive in wiping aside the 2004 winners, where they could and should have scored far more than 4 goals, but they had previously won all of their games in the Group of death, beating Portugal - now semi-finalists themselves – Holland and Denmark with a relative amount of ease despite not having been at their best according to quite a few people, although they were the better team against Holland and Denmark on balance while they were patient enough to break down Portugal despite looking blunt during the early stages.  It’s their tournament opener that described the progress that Germany have made in the last two years. While they were the most exciting team for many at the World Cup, they’d moved from a team that thrived upon an counter attacking towards a team that could probe and find the opening against teams they weren’t willing to chase the game. It’s given them a new dimension and probably is going to be the approach they’ll have to take to beat an Italian side who are amongst the most defensively skilled in Europe.

Don’t let that fool you though. The Italian National side has often been seen as a stoic defensive unit which offers little going forward but that approach would be wrong when used to describe Cesare Prandelli’s side, who completely dominated possession against England and would have been tragic losers on penalties having dominated the whole 90 minutes and extra time to a greater extent - Italy had more shots on target in their quarter-final match than England had in total in their four matches in Ukraine.  The standard of a side like Germany won’t worry them either; They gave Spain as good a game as any in their opener despite being dominated in possession terms, creating some of the better chances in that game and being unlucky not to score more than just one. And that’s where the problem lies; Italy, for all of their play – and it can be a feast on the eyes to watch – don’t score enough goals. Prandelli’s side should have had England put away before the end of normal time on Sunday, while the same can be said of their match against Croatia, where they had enough chances to put the game to bed before the interval, only to be reeled back late on.

Any such profligacy against Germany will go punished severely and it’s to be hoped that Cassano – who cause so many problems for the Spanish, Croatians and Irish during the group stages – can have a more effective game against Germany, while Balotelli found position but lacked coolness against England; Both must improve. A major factor may also be the 48 hour gap between the two quarter finals, with Germany not only able to count upon rotation to work in their favour (Klose, Reus and Schurrle could easily be replaced once again by Muller, Gotze and leading scorer Mario Gomez) , but Italy having played a 120 minutes on Sunday in warm Kiev heat, while they also came out of that game with injury concerns around defenders Ignazio Abate and Giorgio Chiellini and midfielder Daniele De Rossi. Abate could be replaced by Napoli’s Cristian Maggio but Chiellini and De Rossi are pivotal to success, and their fitness carried a huge role in the outcome of this game.

Whether fit or not, the clear choice in this game is Germany, who represent a strong bet at 10/11 and are also worth backing to win by a 1 goal margin, which has been the case in all of their games apart from Greece so far; Indeed Germany haven’t kept a clean sheet in 9 fixtures, so look towards the 2-1 correct score (already occurred twice) as a source of value if you don’t want to get involved in the short price about a 90 minute win. Coupled with a 0-0 half time score (a common occurrence in these semi finals), it pays 66/1. In expectation of a tight game, having the 0-0 onside at half time – or the draw in any fashion, with the draw/draw double result helping to cover against an Italian blockade and reduce losses. 

Advice

3 pts Germany (10/11 general)

1 pt Draw/Draw (4/1 general)

1 pt Half Time Score 0-0 - Full time score 2-1 Germany (66/1 Boylesports)