It’s that time again. The first weekend of February brings with it the glorious spectacle of the 6 Nations, the pinnacle of the rugby year for many and for some the best competition of the year. And it’s hard to imagine a more open renewal , with four nations having genuine title ambitions and Scotland and Italy coming off their best tournament performances.
History dictates that after a Lions tour, France win the 6 Nations, usually with a grand slam for good measure, but supporting Les Bleus solely on that evidence carries some serious risks. Big things were expected of Philippe Saint Andre after the manic highs and lows of the Lievremont years but his two tournaments at the helm have been disasters with a lacklustre fourth before gaining their first ever wooden spoon last year in their most disastrous campaign of living memory. The post Lions fatigue has seen them gain each title after a tour in the professional era, with their biggest changeround – that of 2001 to 2002, where they won the Grand Slam after just two wins – but on both other occasions (2005/6 and 2009/10) they had been 2nd and joint third, raising questions about whether a team in France’s current shape should be backed for the tournament.
It’s true that the fixture list, with England and Italy at home before they face reigning champions Wales – Ireland’s dreadful record at the Stade France may also be some comfort for French backers – is kind to them, but the same problems that saw France win just 3 tests last year remain. Saint – Andre’s selection has been no less inconsistent than Livremont’s, with backline problems in particular plaguing him – and this year he starts with his 10th different combination of halfbacks in the last two years. Forced into this position by injuries to two of his finest prospects at playmakers, Saint Andre must also deal with the absence of talisman Thierry Dusatoir in the pack and Morgan Parra, who bought such spark to France when introduced against England midway through last year’s tournament, amongst others, taking away much of the potential leadership both in and behind the pack. While they undoubtedly have the talent still to take a title, the questions over Les Bleus are too many to support them outright for the title.
Winners for the last two years, Wales’s favouritism has been well earned and Warren Gatland’s “red slabs of meat”, as the Australians christened them before they took a 2-1 win in the Lions series, will take some serious moving if anyone wants to wrestle the title off their hands and prevent an unprecedented hat-trick. Gatland’s election of the entire starting XV and at least 9 players in each of the three tests riled some but simply underlines the fact that Gatland’s choice and quality in personnel terms is unrivalled.
However, the post Lions tour lull that has beaten Wales every time in the professional era must be a serious concern given how they drove the team for the tour – all 15 players that started the thumping 30-3 win against England went and most of them played a part in every game.
There is also the small matter of a much tough fixture list this season, with trips to Ireland and England as their only away fixtures. It’s true when taking their Grand Slam two years ago that Gatland’s men won both those trips, but Ireland outplayed Wales last year and the powerful motivational influences of England having a score to settle make those impossible to call either way and while they deserves favouritism at 9/4, it’s hard to be definite enough about their prospects to back them at such a price.
England arguably should be arriving here as defending champions, having capitulated once again with a Grand Slam in their midst, this time losing the title and the potential honour when being humiliated by the Welsh at the Millennium Stadium. While that defeat came as a result of a ferociously intense performance from a Welsh pack that had arguably it’s finest day under Gatland, although with hindsight such a defeat was in the offing.
After a fluent first weekend win over Scotland, England ground out three more wins but scored only one more try in their 3 remaining games – and that from a knockon – and were pushed harder by Italy than at anytime in the 6 Nations weekend at Twickenham in the game before, a rather disturbing omen for the rout that was to come. While the doubts about backline cohesion still remain, the pack’s improvement since cannot be doubted and barring an injury crisis, Lancaster’s men will host Wales with a completely transformed set of forwards, including an improved Chris Robshaw and transformed Tom Wood who has given, amongst others, New Zealand a tough time at the breakdown. Dylan Hartley’s return to the fold has given England a new bolster in the scrum and lineout while Courtney Lawes’s development has created a fantastic new lock pairing for them to go to war with.
Numerous wing injuries are a source of concern for all that Jack Nowell and Johnny May are youngers of great promise, but if Mike Brown repeats his amazing form of the Autumn then they will have a genuine counterattacking threat and Luther Burrell’s first start, in a similar role to that of the absent Manu Tuilagi, is well deserved. A huge amount of pressure is on Billy Twelevtrees to provide a creative role with Owen Farrell likely to play the pragmatist based on the autumn’s tests, for all that he improved after a poor start at the backend of 2013.
Facing France today is going to be a difficult task but not an impossible one, and hosting Ireland and Wales at Twickenham is a huge task and a patched up backline took second in the 2012 tournament when many were predicting failure for a side that are prime contenders – having taken few players to Australia could also prove to be their advantage in the long run and chances of a first title for Stuart Lancaster’s men will increase tenfold with a win in France.
An injury crisis destroyed Ireland’s chances after what was arguably the attacking show of the championship in beating Wales last year, leading to their worst showing and the departure of Declan Kidney soon afterwards. Although once again showcasing the inconsistency that has plagues them since their Grand Slam of 2009, it cannot be held against them or taken seriously when looking forward to this year’s tournament. Long gone are the mass injury crisis that saw total breakdown in attacking play, and while Sean O’Brien’s injury is a hammer blow for them, it comes in their strongest area by some way and Chris Henry has long been deserving of a chance at this level and Peter O’Mahony and Tommy O’Donnell are forces of their own.
Schmidt will chop and change as he sees fit, but the continuity that was so lacking from Declan Kidney should be absent with Schmidt having taken Leinster to three Heineken Cups during his time at the helm, and the style between province and country should be easily replicated, as it was when Ireland pushed New Zealand to the very last kick in the Autumn Internationals following a flat capitulation against Australia. As we all know, the key is getting Ireland to achieve a level of consistency approaching England and Wales with trips to Twickenham and Paris forecoming, although Ireland won in London as recently as 2010 and drew in France when the two last met. A second week battle with Wales will be crucial, although not one they should fear, and a mix of promising new talent and the core that sees Ireland with three Heineken Cup quarter once again has the potential to run the three main favourites far closer than a price of 11/2 suggests and they make for an interesting value angle into a tournament riddled with potential pitfalls. That price is enough to interest from a value perspective alone, along with inflated prices in the specials market. With questions for us over France, a dual forecast option with both Wales and England makes considerable appeal as those games already look like playing pivotal roles for their title chances.
Scotland had their best 6 nations for a long time last year, with Scott Johnson adding plenty of cutting edge to the side known exclusively for grunt in previous years, with the likes of Stuart Hogg, Matt Scott and Tim Visser leading the Scots to a seven try tally. That said, there was no small amount of luck in their win against Ireland there and the absence of Tim Visser (and fitness issues of Mat Scott) is a serious worry for them as creation of chances in the half channel have been a serious problem in the past.
Italy don’t get the inches they should in this preview but once again had the luck of an Irish injury epidemic when taking their second victory and stalled on their progress for the rest of the year. Jacques Brunel is looking for a more expansive style of play, which has come through, especially when beating France on the opening weekend of last year, but that has led to some defensive gaps, as exploited by the Southern Hemisphere at the backend of last year.
Advice
1 pt Ireland (11/2 general)
1 pt Ireland/England dual forecast (8/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Ireland/Wales dual forecast (6/1 Ladbrokes)
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