Sunday 29 April 2012

Prix Ganay 2012


2.40 Longchamp
Prix Ganay - Prix Air Mauritius Group 1 Stakes (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner €171,420

Advice: 3 pts win Cirrus Des Aigles (4/5 Coral)



Owner detailsCirrus Des Aigles: Finally got group 1 win on the board after numerous attempts when coming with late charge to land Champion Stakes at Ascot and once again tasting success at the highest level when holding off Breeders Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan, sealing the race at the top of the straight; Class act of the race and ground/trip no worry, so has to be the one to beat.

Owner detailsWigmore Hall: Gained a deserved Group 1 win after many unlucky trips (most of all when blocked for a run behind Cape Blanco in Arlington Million) in Canadian International; No wins since despite strong efforts in many races, never able to get a blow into the Dubai Duty Free last time; Never been tried on ground this soft.

Owner detailsSaga Dream: Listed winner last September but reliably held by Cirrus Des Aigles and Giofora on form and hard to see him landing a blow.

Owner detailsReliable Man: Rapidy progressive as a 3yo, with 5 wins from 6 starts including the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly in most taking style, having made up plenty of ground in straight; Beaten in Grand Prix De Paris where questionable ride left him with too much ground to make up and reversed that form in Niel when

Owner detailsGiofora: Steadily progressive last season, quickening away to win Listed event here last October but that nothing compared to exceptional display when trashing Group 2 winner and stablemate Vadamar, bolting up with ease in Prix D’Harcourt; Looked Group 1 class on that display and needs

Owner detailsPagera: Six length winner at Saint Cloud last month but unplaced on last try in Group 1 company and looks sure to be outclassed here.

VERDICT: A small but select field with half the field here being Group 1 winners and the other an exceptionally promising filly. The ground could also play a big part here, which lends us to CIRRUS DES AIGLES, who – along with arguably being the best horse in the race – won twice in extremely testing conditions last year and looked as good as ever when holding off St Nicholas Abbey in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Giofora is such an exciting prospect based on her win in the D’Harcourt last time but one has to wonder how she’d cope with more testing conditions today, while this is Reliable Man’s first run back from a 210 day break. Both have the class to win this however and the latter should enjoy the testing conditions, while Wigmore Hall hasn't raced on a surface so demanding. 

Saturday 28 April 2012

Punchestown Gold Cup 2012

3.15 Punchestown
thetote.com Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)
Winner €84,000

Advice: 1 pt Rubi Light (9/4 Stan James)

Owner detailsApt Approach: Very good on his day and more than decent strike rate (6-17, with those all on ground called either soft or heavy), but unable to really get a blow in when rated 150 and out the back in the Topham last time and has 22 lengths to make up on Rubi Light; Passed over.

Owner detailsFollow The Plan: Won an attritional and rather dreadful looking renewal of this last year and shown no form sinceuntil winning the Betfred Bowl at Aintree, which to be fair to him was a strong renewal on paper; Can’t be discounted although he was well behind Quel Esprit when the pair last met and is said to want better ground, despite the fact he’s won on this surface before; Interesting each/way at 10’s.

Owner detailsMagnaminity: Learned the hang of chasing very quickly when winning second time out over fences; Beneficiary of fine tactical ride (admittedly did jump well) when turning over Jessies Dream a Leopardstown and then one of 4 in close RSA Chase finish (behind Bostons Angel); Ran terribly this season and while he looked as if he would play a hand in Irish National finish, he then tired badly around the home turn; Needs more.

Owner detailsQuantativeeasing: Proven really progressive over the past year, starting out with second in Centenary Novices Chase before paddy power second and December Gold Cup win; Disappointing at Cheltenham Festival under topweight though and while he as winning form in soft ground, more needed

Owner detailsQuel Esprit: Had threatened to be a nearly horse with jumping last season but used confidence boosters as a springboard to first Grade 1 success when winning Irish Hennessy last time around; That didn’t shape like a great race at the time but form gives him a good chance in this field, while he goes well on this sort of ground; Has to have a chance.

Owner detailsRoberto Goldback: Runner up in the Hennessey to Quel Esprit but let down that form badly since and others make far more appeal.

Owner detailsRubi Light: Improved hand over fist since Ryanair third of last year, moving smoothly with impressive win in John Durkan Chase before well beaten Lexus second, although that was against Gold Cup winner Synchronised; Only fifth in Ryanair (having looked set to go very close for much of the way) although he’s back on the ground he loves today, which makes him a huge danger.

VERDICT: RUBI LIGHT was only fifth in the Ryanair and second in the Lexus but revels in these conditions and has a big form chance in any case here. If his stamina doesn’t hold out then Hennnessy Gold Cup winner Quel Esprit (who you will get your money back on if you finish second to with Paddy Power) and Follow The Plan look the biggest dangers.

Champion Four Year Old Hurdle 2012

4.30 Punchestown
AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO only)
Winner €49,600

Advice: 1 pt win Balder Succes (15/8 general)


Owner detailsArnaud: Useful enough juvenile who performed well enough off a mark of 132 when fifth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham but disappointed in Grade 2 at Fairyhouse and needs much more than that here.

Owner detailsBalder Succes: Came to Britain with only the one hurdles starts under his belt but since proven to be seriously high class over hurdles, unbeaten in three UK starts before unlucky Triumph fall; Never in danger of losing at Ascot against older horses previously though and has to be given a big chance here with soft ground not a problem to him.

Owner detailsDarroun: Made several mistakes when unable to get past Shadow Catcher (Grade 1 second) on heavy ground at Punchestown but beat Hisaabaat with bit in hand at Leopardstown nearly a month on; Runner up (reopposes) went onto win Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown so disappointing that Darroun couldn’t do better in the Triumph but should be given a chance here despite looking like second best of stable on riding arrangements.
Owner detailsDarwins Threory: Won nicely at Wexford latest but had previously been well held by Darroun and Hisaabaat so has to have found 10lbs improvement inbetween and that looks unlikely.

Owner detailsEdeyemi: Even more disappointing that Arunaud in Grade 3 at Fairyhouse when finishing stone last, having won well at Clonmel to follow several solid efforts (then second to Une Artiste at Cheltenham Festival); Needs more than that today and held by Darroun and Shadow Catcher on Punchestown form earlier.

Owner detailsHis Excellency: Has been severely held back by his tendency to swish tail under pressure, running shockers in maiden company before running on Grade 2 second; Masterful ride when delivered late and perfectly to land Grade 2 but exposed by several of these and hard to fancy as he has something to find.

Owner detailsHisaabaat: Had become a little frustrating after unseating on debut with 3 runner up efforts but chose perfect time to break his maiden with Grade 1 success (blinkers), following route of very useful Unaccompanied for same yard; Really good second in Triumph makes him arguable form choice but get feeling that better ground improved him a lot there despite previous soft/heavy ground form and that the question today.

Owner detailsSecret Edge: Made more than a few mistakes on debut at Chepstow when only just losing out late on and major improvement from that led to him winning Listed juvenile hurdle, when making good use of stamina late on (followed up in easier company since); Shaped as if he would be suited by a step up in trip when third in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle and then again better when third behind Battonier at Cheltenham, although he could never get into the Neptune; Needs more here despite clearly handling cut.

Owner detailsShadow Catcher: Made a great hurdling debut (sent off favourite) when beating Darroun (who made several jumping mistakes) on debut at Punchestown; Travelled best for long way when second in Spring Juvenile Hurdle (pulled hard and sloppy over the last two) when just behind Hissabaat and didn’t get a great run throughought the Triumph, so has to be shown respect here given his maiden hurdle win on heavy and one of the main players.

Owner detailsUnkown Rebel: Sent off favourite for hurdling debut but ran wide on Paddock and never really into it after that, but 15 length beating of Kazilan looks really good right now; Ground and class still a worry though.



Owner detailsUt De Sivola: Looked to have a future when winning first two starts (in heavy ground) with relative ease, although Hissabaat cost himself with mistake at the last in Grade contest (Ut De Sivola pulled very hard that day); Struck into himself when lacklustre seventh in Spring Juvenile Hurdle and never in the Triumph but still stable choice of Ruby Walsh and trainer seems very bullish about his chances.


Owner detailsWingtips: Only had the three runs but big improvement on every single one of them, namely when fifth in the Triumph Hurdle last time; That has him down as a horse going the right way but

Maggie Neary: AW handicap winner off 79 on the flat who had looked useful when landing maiden hurdle at Gowran but well beaten next time out when upped in class at the same track and much more needed.

VERDICT: Triumph Hurdle runner up Hissabaat has to be respected and he – like a few of the field – has form in ground listed as soft to heavy, but he might have improved for the better conditions at Cheltenham and there’s a feeling that Darroun and Shadow Catcher weren’t at their best on that day – both handle testing condtions well enough based on their maiden hurdle form. BALDER SUCCES is a fairly short priced favourite at just 15/8 but he’s already won in heavy ground and looked as if he could go in any Grade when romping home at Ascot before falling in the Triumph, while he also represents a very strong juvenile team in Alan King. 

bet365.com Celebration Chase 2012


2.35 Sandown
bet365.com Celebration Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)
Winner £42,712

Advice: 1 pt win Somersby (3/1 general)


Owner detailsSomsersby: Has long threatened to land a big event, mostly when further than two miles (given that impression since 2010 Arkle); Ran Masterminded to a head in Victor Chandler Chase in 2011 so disappointing at spring festivals but career best when winning Victor Chandler in first time cheekpieces two starts back, form which is arguably the strongest in the field (Wishfull Thinking ran him to a head but that was when Henderson runner tremeodusly unfit); Twice a winner on soft ground which gives hope he’ll handle these conditions.

Owner detailsCornas: Third in the Tingle Creek after Haldon Gold Cup second, which confirms him as a classy type, and he goes very well in soft condtions; Third in this last year and on the shortlist despite looking to have a bit to find.

Owner detailsDan Breen: Useful novice chaser but short of the best last season and exposed badly in Arkle and Maghull Chases last year; Close second in Handicap Chase off 142 two starts back but that a long way below what’ll be needed her and ground a question mark too.

Owner detailsFrench Opera: Winner of this a year ago and good run when second in Game Spirit Chase behind Sprinter Sacre at Newbury, before falling in the Grand Annual; Goes well at this Grade and in these condtions as shown by his Grand Annual Second in soft ground so has to be much respected here.

Owner detailsSanctuaire: Retains the ability which saw him win Fred Winter juvenile handicap hurdle a couple of years ago and good start to chasing when dominating two inferior small field novice chases at Taunton and Sandown; Has a lot of natural speed and not one to doubt but this much harder and softer ground a worry for one who’s all about natural travelling speed.

Owner detailsWest With The Wind: : Served notice of how useful he is when beating useful Irish Chaser Loosen My Load at Listowel, going on from some way out and not ever being reeled in; Been off for 167 days since though and trying to front run this field out of the game will be harder.

Owner detailsWhishfull Thinking: Been a massive disappointment this season based on his impressive and admirable novice campaign, which he rounded off with wins at Aintree and Punchestown Festivals; Back to best when second in Melling Chase at Aintree and deserves respect on that although might want the ground to be that step quicker.

Owner detailsWoolcombe Folly: Proven to be a major disappointment based on handicap chase win which saw his mark raised to 169, that of a Championship class horse; tongue tied first time since bumper.

VERDICT: A tricky contest with 6 all capable of winning on their day. SOMERSBY has his own quirks but 2 miles on ground with cut poses no problems for him and if able to bring his best to the table he’ll be mightily hard to beat, as shown by his win in the Victor Chandler Chase. Wishfull Thinking travelled like he was back to his best at Aintree but he’s struggled at 2 miles this season which is a worry, and French Opera looks to be a big threat with ground not a problem to him at all. Sanctuaire has loads of class but being headstrong could cost him here and this is a much harder task than his two small field novice chases. Cornas could be one to take advantage if others fail or underperform today. 

bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes 2012


3.45 Sandown
bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £31,190

Advice: 1 pt win Poet (15/8 general)

Owner detailsColombian: Improved for step up in trip when a well backed and clear cut winner of Chester maiden, and has bettered that with two huge runs in major French races, fourth in the French Derby and then a luckless third in well contested Group 2 Guillame D’Orono; Held his own really well towards the end of the season and with ground conditions possibly explaining his odds on defeat in Leicester conditions contest, deserves major respect.

Owner detailsLyssio: Acts on soft but up against it at this level.

Owner detailsPoet:  Goes well in soft ground as shown by numerous efforts like his Ayr Listed win (also 2 -3 on heavy ground) and has a lot of class to go with that, as shown by his second to Workforce; Last of all in Prix D'Harcourt but set too generous a pace early on ground that had dried up too much for him and this much more his bag; Should go well in conditions like these.

Owner detailsTwice Over: Had looked like age was getting to him last season but bounced back with Group 1 win in International Stakes at York; Satisfactory return when second to Questioning at Newmarket last week but unraced on heavy and that the big question.

Owner detailsWorld Domination: Much hyped throughought last season and went some way to justifying hype when winning good maiden (produced two Group placed horses and many winners) and while he might have disappointed when just fourth in Dante next time out,  but that form worked out in the end; Chipped bone when disappointing in King Edward Stakes but a horse for the future.

Owner detailsSos Brilliante: Out of his depth here.

VERDICT: Twice Over is probably the best horse currently in the field (with Colombian not far behind) , while it would be no surprise to see World Domination turn out to be the best of these at the end of the season, but POET is a very useful horse when granted his conditions – he’s 2-3 on heavy ground – and there’s a feeling that today might be his day with the ground “as bad as it’s ever been at Sandown” according to Poet’s rider Ryan Moore. 

Today's Racing - 28th April 2012


1 pt win On The Fringe, 2.40 Punchestown (7/2 Hills)

The last day of the Punchestown Festival starts with the banks racing and three classy types dominate the betting here. Sizing Australia deserves to be favourite on his best banks form, which is namely his win over the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham and what looked set to be another winning effort here at last year’s festival when slipping up around 7 out when going well. He was arguably going into this year’s festival in even better form when finishing a good third in the same handicap hurdle he was seventh in before last year’s win at Cheltenham, but could never raise a proper effort when finishing a well beaten fourth behind Balthazar King, and he now returns to Punchestown.

The main question mark over him would have to be the ground. While he does have a soft ground win to his name, he seems to be much better for the good ground at the end of the season and this is as testing as it’s been at Punchestown.

Cooldine is a former top class RSA Chase winner who looked set for Gold Cup glory at one time this season but he lost his way and is now given his first try over the banks courses having finished well behind Leanne at Clonmel last time. He should be fine on this ground, the stable have been in great form all week, and he’d be one of the classier recruits to this game of late, but one would want to see some of the old zest return before backing him.

Cross country specialist Enda Bolger has four entered here and On The Fringe looks the classiest of of them on form, with his third to Salisfy on his seasonal return looking like an excellent effort now following that horse’s Cheltenham win, while he just failed to give On The Fringe 10lbs and a beating at Fairyhouse on soft ground. He has an eight length win to his name on this ground and is also the choice of Mr J T McNamara out of the four Bolger runners, so he has to be seriously respected.

Arabella Boy and Outlaw Pete could be potentially great choices given how well they were travelling when going out in unlucky circumstances here on Thursday in the La Touche Cup, but one has to worry that that would have taken out of them.

1 pt win Une Artiste, 5.05 Punchestown (15/8 general)

Nicky Henderson’s had an amazing season despite being edged out for the trainers title only by the Grand National win of Neptune Collonges, and he can round off yet another successful Punchestown Festival raid with Une Artiste in the Irish Thoroughbred Breeders Association Fillies Scheme E.B.F. Mares Hurdle.

All week we’ve seen soft and heavy ground form come to the fore, and Nicky Henderson’s progressive filly – a winner on heavy ground in France twice before coming to the season – was a game winner in testing ground at Haydock before ending up well beaten in the Adonis Hurdle (a very good race this season on paper) before landing the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in good style. The fierce pace helped her a bit that day, but she looked like a genuinely progressive horse when winning a Listed Mares Hurdle just 9 days ago in good (and relatively easy style) from a good yardstick in Swincombe Flame. This is even tougher ground but if getting through it, she’ll take all the beating.

Baby Shine – third to Simonsig last time at Aintree – has a heavy ground win to her name and could well prove to be quite a notable threat on that form, while Georgeous Sixty is interesting if she really was back to her best, like she seemed to hint at last time when travelling best in the Grade 3 GSB Hurdle – she might handle this ground too.

Vast Consumption deserves respect based on her progressive for, while the Irish Mares Brigade of Our Girl Sally, Shadown Elie, Golden Sunbird and Burn and Turn all have their claims, while not being as unexposed as our pick.

1 pt each/way Le Beau Bai & West End Rocker 3.10 Sandown (7/1 & 8/1 Paddy Power)

The last proper race of the jumps season may well be one of the toughest given the rain that has hit Sandown of late, but the testing ground offers a big chance for Le Beau Bai to pull off a big handicap chase double in today’s Bet365 Gold Cup.

Revived by Richard Lee this term are a disappointing last campaign, Le Beau Bai really hit his three race golden run when coming right away from Sona Sasta at Chepstow (a favourite course of his) in December, and then following that up with a tenacious win in the Welsh National, drawing right away from Giles Cross with the rest nowhere.

Those placings were reversed next time out in the Grand National Trial at Haydock but there was no shame in that with Giles Cross a class act in the mud and Neptune Collonges now the Grand National winner, and his exemplary record (eight wins on soft to heavy ground, and 5 of those at 3 miles and above) in this testing ground makes him a worthy favourite here.

Also worth having on your side is the Becher Chase winner West End Rocket, who was once again an early faller in the Grand National but deserves a good crack at a big prize based on his wide margin Becher Chase win on ground just as testing at Aintree previously. That came after a disappointing effort at Cheltenham but he’d previously been progressive over this trip and his Classsic Chase win is a good example of that.

He may be 11lbs higher in the handicap for his win at Aintree but if he jumps and travels as well as he did there today then he should prove hard to keep out of the frame at the end. With four winners since 2001 being novices the 7 year olds Roalco De Farges and Viking Blond deserve significant respect, but of more interest are Rare Bob – who’s known to go well on heavy ground – and Glaxy Rock, who does have heavy ground form and was travelling like a dream in the Scottish National before being pulled up. Ideally he’d want this ground better but he’s one to watch in running and a price of 22/1 is big – Jonjo O’Neill has pulled off similar training performances.

Friday 27 April 2012

Today's Racing - 27th April 2012


1 pt win Oscara Dara, 6.40 Punchestown (2/1 Coral)

The groundstaff at Punchestown have done wonders to get this meeting on today and we’ve been rewarded with a 5 race card that genuinely puts quality over quantity – The Arkle third meeting the RSA second today in the opening race is an example of this – and the 2 mile novice hurdle that precedes the closing race is another example of this.

 Based purely on the ground, the obvious pick would have been Willie Mullins’s Terminal, but he offered little off the bridle when third behind Gaileo’s Choice at Fairyhouse last time – something underlined by the fact that he was beaten into second by Becauseicouldntsee, who was prepping for the Grand National at the time – and Oscara Dara’s fourth to stablemates Darlan and Captain Conan at Aintree is the best form by some way here.

He doesn’t have form on a testing surface but he was second to the useful Mono Man on soft at Ascot on his second start last season and won on slow ground at Sandown, and if today’s ground was to be good then he’d be a much shorter price than he is today, and as the better of the two horses, if he can stay in the running until the home turn, then he has a first rate chance here.

Malt Master is a big price for a horse of his ability at 15/2 but he looks inferior to his stablemate without taking the ground into consideration, while this is his first run for 153 days since winning at Newcastle in November. Captain Dancer is an interesting horse based on the booking of Davy Ruseell (Charles Byrnes runs two here and he’s got the vote of the Irish Champion elect) although the ground is a worry for him, while Tango Banbou appealed at the prices for the Mullins Yard although he might be an in running play.

bet365 Mile 2012


2.20 Sandown
bet365 Mile (Group 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £45,368

Advice: 4 pts Famous Name top 2 finish (4/6 Hills)

Owner detailsDubawi Gold: Went from AW Listed winner to class act on the milling scene last year, winning Group 2 in cheeky style after finishing second in English and Irish Guineas (then disappointing at Royal Ascot); Fourth behind Excelebration, Frankel and then Able One in high class events and that makes him the best horse in this race (forget Dubai disappointment) although some might say his turn off foot was blunted when fourth in the Moulin behind Excelebration by the very soft ground that day; One to beat.

Owner detailsFamous Name: Exceptionally consistent horse (few more deserving of a group 1) who won Listed race at Leopardstown for the third season running, giving 5lbs and a beating to the easy Irish Cesarawitch winner Sharestan; Sure to be fit for that, great all round record, and has tons of soft ground form along with a win on heavy, so must be exceptionally hard to beat today.

Owner detailsQuestioning: Improved on all form last season and his seasonal debut when winning the Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket, beating Group 1 winner Twice Over; That form puts him in with a big shout if he handles the ground here today.

Owner detailsPenitent: 2010 Lincoln winner who made excellent start for his new yard when winning at Doncaster (ahead of Questioning);That form gives him possibilities here and has won on soft ground before (infact, his personal best win is on ground described as soft) and has to be respected.

Owner detailsLibranno: Made himself into a very useful sprinter last season, coming third in the British Champions Sprint having previously won Supreme Stakes at Goodwood; Hasn’t got much soft ground form and this his seasonal debut, so hard to fancy majorly despite Pricewise pick.

Owner detailsCochambamba: Faces a stiff test even on her best form from earlier on.


VERDICT: A cracking matchup between Dubawi Gold and FAMOUS NAME. Richard Hannon’s exceptional record (he’s won 6 of the last eight runnings) in this is a massive pointer towards his chances and he does have a very creditable Group 1 fourth on heavy ground to his name but Dermot Weld’s charge looks nailed on to give his running and is a regular winner on soft ground, along with his heavy ground wins. 

Ryanair Novice Chase 2012


4.55 Punchestown

Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €62,000

Advice: 1 pt win Lucky William (7/1 Coral)

Owner detailsBlackstairmountain: Seemed rejuvenated when landing Grade 1 in Ireland (probably helped by fall of hot favourite that day) and easy to forgive his Irish Arkle disappointment on the basis of the ground, but this being run in same conditions here and hard to fancy with surface this testing.

Owner detailsFirst Lieutenant: Looked for all the world as if he was going to make a chaser when winning the Neptune Novice Hurdle at last year’s festival (race has worked out really well) but disappointing over fences before RSA Chase second at Festival; Could be the most talented horse in the race but much better on quick ground and drops back in trip a mile.

Owner detailsLucky William: Decent hurdler in novice days and gets a second crack at chasing having probably suffered dent in confidence when falling and set to win on chasing debut; Has since come back in style though, left clear at the last on return before then winning decent Grade 3 and winning novice handicap chase last time out after being well beaten in Grade 1 events; Would normally be discounted but does handle ground and travels well so has to be considered seriously.

Owner detailsMenorah:  High class over hurdles (Supreme Novice, Greatwood, and International Hurdle winner) who’s taken his time with fences, unseating over fences on debut before making several blunders in two facile wins in novice events; Fell again in Doncaster Grade 2 but Arkle effort followed up by Aintree romp make him the form choice; Major worry is over testing ground.

Owner detailsRegal D’Estruval: Has heavy ground form but only rated 126 and needs so much more to be able to trouble the best of these.

Owner detailsShot From The Hip: Grade 1 winner at this meeting last year but not lived upto the same level over fences and disappointed off mark of just 136 in handicap last time, which leaves him with a lot of ground to make up.

Owner detailsKumbeshwar: Had excellent novice campaign  this year, holding his own in Graded events before performing creditably in handicaps the last twice at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals; Good efforts both times but major question is how does he handle ground this testing (won on heavy at Plumpton but had only one decent rival to beat that time).

VERDICT: A fairly weak renewal of this race although its position in the calendar and the atrocious ground may well have something to do with that. Menorah’s probably the class act of this field but there’s a big question mark regarding him and the ground. First Lieutenant has some of the best form in the race but his top performances have all come on good ground and he drops back a mile in trip. If those two are affected badly by the race conditions, then LUCKY WILLIAM could well be the one to profit, with extremely testing ground not likely to be a major problem for him.