Aidan O’Brien is favourite to be top trainer at Royal Ascot
for the fourth time and while some might squirm at the price of 4/6, it could
prove to be an excellent bet towards the end of the week with the Ballydoyle
battalions having as ever, an exceptionally strong hand.
Not a year has gone by this decade when O’Brien has failed
to have a Group 1 winner at the meeting and he comes around with a typically
strong hand in the big Group 1 races once again. Power is his first serious
chance of the day in the St James’s Palace Stakes and will prove an obdurate opponent
to all if the ground quickens up through racing from his favourable stall of 5
(out of 16), while he can also carry a strong looking team of Crisforo Colombo
and Lines Of Battle into the Coventry Stakes, a race that he’s won 6 times.
Excelebration won’t have a hope of beating Frankel if all goes to plan but he
should place for the countback total (much like the jockeys title).
Wednesday seems to revolve around So You Think – who has an
outstanding chance no matter what people think of the value or not in his price
– although Reply must have a chance in the Jersey Stakes after his excellent
third in the Irish Guineas on his comeback, and Ishvana (if her form could be
taken literally after running an excellent second to Samitar in the Jersey) too
holds good claims in that race, while Devotion may have a big weight in the
Sandringham, although based on her second in the Irish 1,00 Guineas trial she’s
a horse who should be well suited by a strong pace. Fame And Glory’s odds on to retain his Gold
Cup title on the Thursday, while Imperial Monarch would surely have a
favourite’s chance to atone for his unlucky French Derby defeat if lining up in
the Tercentenary.
It will be interesting to see what lines up out of his
runners in the King Edward, with an extra week between the Derby and Royal
Ascot this year, and there’s growing confidence behind the chances of Maybe in
Friday’s Coronation Stakes (with soft ground sure to suit Homecoming Queen if
she runs), and he has a good record in the Queen’s Vase, a race that this year
doesn’t have a Mark Johnston trained runner in opposition. If by Saturday
things aren’t decided still, then he can count on Memphis Tennesee in the
Hardwicke Stakes, who looks to have a strong chance after his Ormonde win
(something you would hope could be used as a springboard to get him ready to
show his best form) even with the likes of Aiken in opposition.
Richard Hannon – who had three winners last year and 2 more
seconds than O’Brien did - is next best and understandably with an excellent
Royal Ascot record and a strong team of juveniles, headed by Sir Prancelot (and
three others, all with claims) in the Coventry but also backed up by favourite
Lyric Ace and Jalaa in the Windsor Palace.
He can also count upon strong challenges in the all the
juvenile races (Mister Marc and Announcation look to have two strong challenges
at the 6 day stage for the Norfolk, while Rayaheen and Tassel can go well in
the Albany) and his handicap charges look in with a chance (Jacob Cats in the Britannia
might run well), but there isn’t a ton of strength in depth outside that in
what’s likely to be some fiercely contested races, and the absence of Fort
Bastion from the Britannia Stakes is a massive blow for him and Richard Hughes.
Those who want some value should be looking towards John
Gosden at 10/1. Just a year since 1990 has seen him go without a winner and
this year he’s been in better form than ever, lying second in the trainers’
prizemoney table with 56 winners from just 283 runners (operating at a strike
rate of 20%), and winning several pattern races with the likes of Izzi Top,
Questioning, Thought Worthy and Michelangelo. This week he has some strong chances
on paper, with The Fugue – criminally unlucky in the Oaks – looking set to take
her chances in the Ribblesdale on Thrusday, while Newfangled’s Albany win looks
as good as anything in the race and she too has an excellent chance on paper at
least of landing a win.
This three pronged attack on the St James’s Palace – The
Nile, Fencing and Gregorian – has its merits while Gatewood, so impressive when
coming from last to first in a competitive Epsom handicap, should surely have a
big chance in the Wolferton. The same connections’ Aiken bids for a second
Group 2 on the bounce in the Hardwicke Stakes, while he has a strong hand too
in the Coronation Stakes (Starscope, Elusive Kate) and possibly the King Edward
with Shantaram and Michaelangelo, while it would be no surprise to see Chat
follow up his impressive win on debut in the Chesham Stakes. If any one of the
first two in the market were to fluff their lines, then Gosden could have a
first rate chance and the 10/1 is a big each/way price.
Sir Henry Cecil has one winner on the board in effect
through Frankel and Chachamaidee’s claims in the Windsor Forest are hard to
ignore (she gets 5lbs from her rivals in the market and has the advantage of a
run over Nahrain), while Noble Mission’s second to Thought Worthy now looks all
the better with his fourth in the Derby (Noble Mission gave 5lbs away), so he
has to be considered strongly at 16/1 and might be an in play proposition on
Betfair, particularly if runners for trainers who don’t have many chances
throughought the week win the St James’s Palace (Lucayan for example) and
King’s Stand (Ortensia and Little Bridge are examples). Wrotham Heath also has
a good chance in the Tercentenary Stakes while Stipulate’s second to Cogito
looks quite good at face value.
Sir Michael Stoute’s chances of landing a big Royal win with
Carlton House have been boosted immensely thanks to the defection of Cirrus Des
Aigles, while he’s going for a seventh Hardwicke Stakes with Sea Moon, but
apart from Estimate in the Queen’s Vase and Tales Of Grimm in the Tercentenary,
he looks to be lacking in clear cut chances and even with his form better now
than at the start of the season, it’s hard to be too enthusiastic.
Goldophin’s Mahmood Al Zarooni is a top trainer who has a
good chance in the Gold Cup with Opinion Poll, but in keeping with Godolphin’s
other trainer Saeed Bin Suroor, he might lack the strength in depth to launch
an obvious challenge.
Roger Varian has two excellent chances in Nahrain (Windsor
Forest ) and Mijaar (Wolferton) so could be interesting if he gets the double,
as I’d imagine just one other trainer would put him right up there, and it’s
likely that the double for his pair mentioned pays less than 40/1. Mick Channon
was also interesting, as he’s got a good chance in the Windsor Castle with his
pair Bungleinthejungle and Pay Freeze, and he also has a nice chance in the
Coronation with Laugh Out Loud, and his Cay Verde should go close in the
Norfolk, but an issue too with him is strength.
Last but not least, for a real flyer, consider William
Haggas. With the services of the truly excellent Johnny Murtagh on Senatril in
the Norfolk and Vow in the Ribblesdale, he’s also got a good handicap record at
the meeting and comes here with his string in flying form.
Advice
10 pts Aidan O'Brien to be top trainer at Royal Ascot (8/11 Stan James)
1 pt & 1 pt each/way John Gosden to be top trainer at Royal Ascot (10/1 Boylesports)
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