The Royal Ascot top jockey betting is dominated (understandably)
by Joseph O’Brien and it’s hard to argue with his position at the head of the
market. On three occasions since 2002 have the top trainer and jockey been partners,
and the link towards quality is absolutely crucial.
So with three time winner O’Brien supporting him, it’s
understandable that any jockey linked towards the operation is favourite, and
even then there’s a lot going for Joesph O’Brien. Despite being just 19 he
already had 10 Group 1’s to his name, and he’s won three of the 5 classics in
the UK, while he’s riding at a 53% strike rate in the UK this year – and three
from four of those are on outside rides.
With Power and Cristforo Columbo – some have suggested that
his mount in the Windsor Castle, Parliament Square, could improve with even
Pricewise backing him - on the first day he’s also got a strong chance of a
winner before he jocks up in hot favourite So You Think in the Prince Of Wales’s
(after he takes the mount on the well fancied Reply in the Jersey Stakes), and
Maybe and Memphis Tennessee later on (plus any amount of possible runners in
the 3yo races) it’s hard to get away from his claims. There are worries for
some over his inexperience (just 6 Ascot rides) but that proved to be a nonsense
when he won the Coronation Cup and Derby at Epsom and he’s got a first rate
chance. However with Aidan O’Brien at the cornerstone of our portfolio for top
trainer, there seems to be no need to get involved, and the fact that he’s not
going to be riding fully throughought the week is a putoff, while he doesn’t
ride Fame & Glory in the Gold Cup either, and while he could easily win, I’d
rather have second strings covered with the trainer, while the countback –
seconds and thirds count too – could go against him.
Richard Hughes is seen as by far the most likely to be top
jockey if O’Brien should fail to make it, and his claims are obvious with the
favourites in today’s Coventry and Windsor Palace before a tradionally strong hand
in all the juvenile events alter throughought the week (Sky Lantern in the
Albany is a good example) but the loss of Fort Bastion (seen as one of his best
chances of the week) is a major blow and the older horse division at Hannon’s
in this year might lack the strength that he needs to get to four winners –
what it should take to win the title in such a hotly contested year – even with
a bunch of places to add to his collection.
Ryan Moore’s going for his third straight title and should
take some stopping on that basis but all of his winners came for Ballydoyle and
while he could well be riding second strings for that partnership (Lines of
Battle is a very smart mount in the Coventry), that might the difference between
winning and losing for him this time around. Sea Moon in the Hardwicke and
Carlton House in the Prince Of Wales’s are two strong chances and shouldn’t be
underestimated, but at the prices others are preferred.
One of them is William Buick, who appeals at 10/1. Having
already backed John Gosden for op jockey, this is a bet that goes hand in hand
and clearly has potential with two winners last year, and he comes here in scintillating
form, having won 15 times from his last 43 rides.
What’s notable about his chances are that he looks to have a
much better hand in this than recent years, with the fillies headlining his
strong book of rides. The Fugue has a massive chance in the Ribblesdale with an
extra week between the Oaks/Derby and this meeting, while Newfangles should go
well in the Albany. He can also possibly count on Michaelangelo in the King
Edward, Starscope in the Coronation, and Aiken in the Hardwicke, while Gatewood
should also have a strong chance in the Wolferton. That alone could – with any
luck – reap two or three winners and more and then give him a fighting chance,
and with Moore/Hughes/O’Brien possibly taking away from eachother, he has a
better chance than 10/1, especially with the likeliness of dead heats for
second and third. With even his final mount Zuider Zee having a big chance on
RPR’s for the Queen Alexandra Stakes at the end, he rates good value.
Another jockey who I’d like to have onside is Johnny
Murtagh, who at this time of writing has just finished third on Sole Power in
the King’s Stand. He’s got Born To Sea coming up in the St James’s Palace and
should Fame & Glory be anything less than on top form than Saddler’s Rock
would have a massive chance, Dimension
has to have as good a chance as any in the Hunt Cup, Upward Bound is currently
favourite for the Queen Mary along with Sentaril and Vow in the Jersey and
Ribblesdale Stakes respectively. Pay Freeze is also a strong shout in today’s
Windsor Castle Stakes and with plenty of other good handicap mounts surely
coming his way, he looks to be a bit of value to add the portfolio at 12’s.
Tom Queally currently shares the lead thanks to Frankel and
Chachamaidee, along with Thought Worthy and possibly Wrotham Heath, can surely
go close for him, but the outside rides he’s going to get surely lack the
strength in wins that he’ll need – he had three seconds last year. Jamie
Spencer has a great ride on Fame & Glory but it’s hard to get enthused
about him otherwise. Paul Hanagan – with a perfect balance between top class
mounts for Hamdan Al Maktoum (the likes of Jalaa, Aljahmaheer, and The Taj) and
good chances for Richard Fahey in the likes of Lady’s First in the Sandringham,
had to have some interest in him, but he might just fall short in quality this
week with his best chances being in the most hotly contested races. Frankie
Dettori can’t be discounted and Laugh Out Loud is a great mount to have in the
Coronation, but there’s a worry that with Godolphin’s rides being spread out,
he too will fall on quality.
Advice
1 pt each/way William Buick to be Royal Ascot top Jockey
(10/1 Boylesports)
1 pt each/way Johnny Murtagh to be Royal Ascot top Jockey
(12/1 Stan James)
Just seen this. Good luck Will.
ReplyDelete