Today's Racing - 30th June 2012

1 pt win Maarek, 2.15 Newcastle (3/1 general)

This looks like a very competitive renewal of the Chipchase Stakes and it would be no surprise to see Maarek claim a Group race on his first attempt, having run well under topweight in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last Saturday. That followed up an excellent win at the Newmarket Guineas weekend when giving more than a stone to the runner up (on ground that was riding soft) while he’s a much better horse than nearly a year or so ago, when just fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup. With the ground as it is, he could well be at an advantage and the booking of Graham Lee (riding with style on the flat and already winner of a big sprint this season) is a notable pointer to his chance.

1 pt win Sandreamer, 2.30 Newmarket (5/2 general)

Mick Channon may have gone without a 2 year old winner at at Royal Ascot but it wasn’t for lack fo trying and his best 2 year old might have been at home the whole time. In anticipation of a price too short to tip (in all realism) about the impressive winner Newfangled (while having also tipped John Gosden and William Buick for the top jockey and trainer titles) , I was all ready to have Sandreamer as my value each/way pick, but she was withdrawn and

A Moyglare Stud Stakes entry, she made a very promising start to life when travelling strongly on the outside and then finding plenty when push came to shove in a maiden on the Rowley Mile, where she had today’s rival Tipping Over (herself an impressive winner on her next start) well back, with the runner up having also come from that maiden, which itself has produced two Group winners in the last 2 seasons. Her chances seem obvious but if I was prepared to put her up at Royal Ascot, I see nowhere else to look for the winner of the Empress Stakes.

1 pt each/way Pizazzo Blanco, 3.20 Newcastle (8/1 Bet Victor)

The fact that this year’s Northumberland Plate is even on is a huge credit to the groundstaff at Newcastle, and they get the first word in what’s a typically competitive Plate, although the ground (heavy as anything and unraceable until yesterday) is sure to play a big part in proceedings. It’s also why Ile De Re – a game winner of the Chester Cup on ground that was so soggy they had to flat start the race – is as short as 7/2 for such a competitive event despite the 8lbs rise he’s incurred for that race. Expect Donald McCain’s runner to go very close on account that he’ll keep going when others cry enough, but he’s a touch short for this event now having been nearly double the price earlier in the week.

John Gosden has carried all before him in recent weeks and his Palazzo Bianco, who has always promised to thrive for a strong saying test and gave the impression he was coming to the boil when rallying late for third in a strong 2 mile handicap at Haydock last time out. He’s been beaten on his last 4 starts but he’s got solid form on all of them (twice behind progressive horses) and he might well be at his peak today, so the 8/1 makes each/way appeal.  Being rated in the band of 85-93 (which had produced 9 of the last 10 winners) and carrying 8-2 ( a very handy weight in the recent history of this affair) he looks to be an ideal winner on trends and a stall of 7 could prove be a great help even if a wide draw isn’t the hindrance it used to be.

1 pt each/way Montaff (12/1 general, 14/1 Bet Victor)

Best of the rest here looks to be Mick Channon’s Montaff, who has a mind of his own and can be nothing but inconsistent, but off a mark 11lbs lower than when second last year he’s impossible to leave out. He’s run a succession of shockers since for his mark to drop that low, but the one placed effort in his last six was when he was behind Gulf Of Naples at Ripon on soft ground, a run for which he is now 3lbs better off with Mark Johnston’s charge. He won on heavy ground as a 2 year old and has others several good efforts on a softer surface to his name, so the ground shouldn’t be too much of a worry for him, and it’s not hard to think that he could run another big race yet again.

Mark Johnston’s Gulf Of Naples is the form choice and well in after his third in the Ascot Gold Cup, while he also goes on all sorts of ground (particularly enjoys soft), but there has to be a worry about how hard a race he had that day; If at top form you’d say he’d be winning but a second slog in two weeks might be beyond him. Lexington Bay’s first two starts give him an excellent chance (well ahead of Palazzo Bianco in one, and only slightly worse off) and he should be forgiven his latest effort at York, so he rates as the most appealing third choice. Motivado is sure to stay 2 miles but this is his first run of the season and in these conditions that could count badly against him late on. The Betchworth Kid has a good soft ground record and it’s not so long ago that he was running in better races than these and with credit but he’s looked out of sorts (albeit when a running on third last time), while the rest don’t make the appeal of the others.