Royal Ascot 2012 - King's Stand Stakes

3.05 Royal Ascot (Day 1, Race 2)

King´s Stand Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £198,485

Advice: 1 pt win, 1 pt each/way Ortensia (11/2 general), 1 pt each/way Wizz Kid (11/2 general), 1 pt each/way Little Bridge (12/1 general) 

Already Advised: 1pt win, 1 pt each/way Wizz Kid (11/2 Ladbrokes) 

Amour Propre: Tipped for big things earlier in his carrer (sent off just 4/1 for this in 2009) but lost his way until finding form towards backend of last season, beating none other than Sole Power in Flying Five Stakes; Needed it badly first time up and should be better here, but drawn in stall 20.

Bated Breath: Made up into a top class sprinter last year, coming second in three separate Group  1’s last year; Hinted at possibly even better to come when lowering track record set at Haydock in Temple Stakes; Must have big chance her considering improvement to come from that in the locker and while he doesn’t have soft ground win to his name, has got creditable efforts on such a surface (today’s should ride a little better than soft); Big chance.

Dinkum Diamond: Looked as if he’d make up into a good sprinter at the beginning of last year and didn’t disgrace himself in series of listed/group 3 races last summer but since disappointed and hard to fancy after desperate effort last time out.

Hamish McGonagall: As consistent as any of the sprinters who dines at the top table nowadays, and third in Nunthorpe last season shows that he can go with best of them if all should drop right; Third behind Wizz Kid in Prix Du Gros Chene last time but if both get a clear run, that form shouldn’t be overturned.

Joy And Fun: Disappointed when coming here a couple of years ago but had fracture; Close win in Chairman’s Sprint Prize, following on from two close defeats in Group 1 company, and good once again when third behind Ortensia in Al Quoz Sprint; No reason why he can’t run well again although could have been better drawn.

Little Bridge: Had not been at his best since finishing fourth as favourite in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint in December, but showed why he had attained that ranking when bolting up under joint top weight in the Bahunia Sprint Trophy, before then showing plenty of guts in the Group 2 Sprint Cup last time out; That form gives him big chance here and if ground isn’t too soft for him and one to watch with regards to weather.

Masamah: Impressive progression last year ended with win in Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood; Disappointed on all three occasions he was stepped up into Group 1 company last year however, and hard to fancy following his unplaced comeback in Temple Stakes (behind Bated Breath and Sole Power).

Medican Man: Progressive last year when winning pair of valuable handicaps before then coming third in Listed race; Not discredited himself since but seems a level behind top company and seems to run as if 6 furlongs would be preferable.

Moinesur Joe: Grown into a high class sprinter over past year or so, with several good efforts at Dubai Carnival, culminating with fourth behind Ortnesia in Al Quoz Sprint; Unlucky not to win Longchamp Group 3 next time but worry about how easily beaten he was in Temple Stakes.

Prohibit: Winner of this last year in good style and kept that form through most of his races last season, coming third in Nunthrope before winning French Group 3 and suffering poor passage in L’Abbaye; Not at same level this season but tiny progress at the end of the Prix Gros Chene hinted that this track could see him to his best.

Secret Asset: Short neck second in Prix L’Abbaye at the backend of last season; Poor and well held eighth in Dubai in Al Quoz but better last time when third in Krisflyer Sprint in Singapore, staying on takingly into third; Handles soft based on that and not the worst outsider choice although draw in 19 offputting.

Sole Power: Proved his Nunthrope win to be no fluke with subsequent efforts and success; Unlucky not to win L’Abbaye in France and second behind Ortensia and Bated Breath in last two starts and as good a chance as any here (little unlucky last time if anything); Major worry for him would be the ground softening.

Spirit Quartz: Won four of his first five starts in Italy and done well since moving to England, staying on in eyecatching style at the end of Palace House and Temple Stakes, and unlucky not to win Achilles Stakes last time; Interesting outsider for connections that won this last year with Prohibit.

Stone Of Folca: Had been without a win for over a year when landing the Epsom Dash, setting a new world record for 5 furlongs; On that basis one couldn’t ignore him and trainer’s had success at this meeting with big prices before, but untried on good to soft, this a major step up in class anyway, and drawn poorly in stall 3.

Tangerine Trees: Made it 5 from 7 over this trip in headgear when landing Prix L’Abbaye and satisfactory comeback when seventh in Temple Stakes carrying a penalty; Should have come on for that and drawn on wrong side when last in this last year, so has his appeal at big current price (has won on soft).

Margot Did: Always been talented (second in Albany two years ago) and finally gained big win her efforts deserved when landing the Nunthrope last year; Unable to follow up since though (best effort eighth) and while soft ground would prove to be a help for her, been off form for a long while.

Night Carnation:  Had been very progressive last season, landing Group 3 before efforts slightly petered out towards backend of last season; Disappointing on seasonal comeback and never in the Palace House Stakes, so hard to fancy.

Ortensia: Top class Australian mare who ended winless streak of almost a year when running out an impressive winner of Listed race and then following up in Burswood Winterbottom Stakes; Made it a hat trick in the most impressive style when landing Al Quoz Sprint (beating several opponents here), despite having been forced back to last and then having to move widest of all, but still getting towards line in plenty of time; Standout chance here if the ground is quick enough for here.

Wizz Kid: Performed creditably in several top sprints after winning Prix Du Gros Chene last year, ending up on the wrong side in Nuntrhope and then getting poor run in L’Abbaye; Never ready on seasonal debut (poor run) but impressive in Prix De Saint Georges last time, and big chance here with soft ground not a problem.

Bapak Chinta: Backed like defeat was out of question in Hamilton maiden and that was indeed case, never headed and going clear in the final furlong, beating subsequent Listed winner Federick Engles; Overcame doubts about softening ground when winning Norfolk Stakes at last year’s meeting but had his problems since and hard to fancy.

Stepper Point:  Found her form towards the end of last year, winning three on the bounce including Longchamp listed events; Well beaten in Palace House Stakes and now threat to Wizz Kid getting 3lbs in Prix Du Gros Chene last time at Chantilly;

Caledonia Lady: Looked unlucky behind Beyond Desire but never in it behind Pearl Secret or Mayson the last twice and has to be considered an unlikely winner even with Ascot’s 5f sure to suit.

Ponty Acclaim: Respectable second behind Pearl Secret on comeback, having run plenty of times in sprints last season and done well (landed Ayr Group 3 final start as a 2yo); So much more needed.

VERDICT: As usual, a fiercely competitive renewal from which you could pick out one of 10 and make a good case for them. The combination of the good record of three year olds, fillies/mares, the record of top 4 finishers in the Prix Du Gros Chene and likely easy ground leads me to WIZZ KID, who was unlucky on so many levels last season and has looked very good on her two starts this year, winning well in the Prix Du Gros Chene last time out from Stepper Point with a lot in hand. Ortensia – who had so many of these behind her when winning the Al Quoz Sprint from a very poor position - would be an extremely strong choice if not the rain that threatens to make the ground on the significantly slower side of good, something which would detract significantly from her chance on all known form. The weather is also crucial for Bated Breath, who showed that he’s got the speed for 5 furlongs when beating Sole Power (Himself unlucky but ground dependent) in the Temple Stakes on his seasonal comeback. Expect him to go close, while it’s worth keeping in mind that he was fifth in the Golden Jubilee of last year on ground far worse than what’s likely to prevail today. Third on the list would be Little Bridge, who was sent off favourite for the Champions Sprint in December (Bated Breath eighth) before a couple of disappointing efforts, but his last two runs (notably when posting an exceptional time carrying topweight in the Sprint Trophy (the same route Sweet Sanette took before blazing her way to third in this last year), before showing guts over the 6 furlongs to win snugly enough in the Sprint Cup last time. Both efforts entitle him to respect and the 12/1 will be taken if the ground dries up enough before the day. Any number of outsiders could be backed with good reason, so consider Secret Asset (possibly unlucky not to win the L’Abbaye last season and a strong travelling sort who might well be a good back to lay vehicle), Spirit Quartz (from last year’s winning yard who has suffered a lot of bad luck in running on his British starts so far) and Prohibit (last year’s winner who can be rated as a bit better than what we’ve seen of him so far).