Euro 2012 - Croatia v Spain

Conspiracy theories have dominated the build-up to Spain v Croatia but they look misplaced and punters should be siding with Spain to advance to the quarter finals on the back of a second straight win.

The talk has all been about the possibility of a 2-2 draw (or higher) in the Spain-Croatia match, which would force Italy out on goals scored, no matter what sort of result they post against the Irish. Many of this comes from the 2-2 result between Denmark and Sweden which saw Italy knocked out, although that game was settled by a 88^th minute equalizer in what had been a fiercely competitive contest during the game. It should be membered that neither Spain or Coratia are totally safe, so to play for a 2-2 draw (or anything but a win) seems like a ridiculously risky tactic. The 2-2 draw has since moved out to 10’s but that still seems too short iith most bookmakers going 16's on that before this situation arised. 

Vicente Del Bosque’s defending champions were held to a 1-1 against Italy but could consider themselves unlucky not to have won the game with the introduction of Fernando Torres, who spurned three late chances to win the game. He rewarded the side with his inclusion in the Ireland game by scoring a double – something which should give him the confidence - and it’s clear that La Fuorja’s Roja’s threat is enhanced with the Chelsea striker playing as a no.9, even if he’s not quite a replacement for David Villa.

Coratia were impressive against Ireland and even moreso against Italy when fighting back hard in the second half, but they could have been well behind in that game beforehand and their main problem (as with every team who plays against Spain) is likely to be getting enough of the ball to pose a real threat even with the high threat of strikers Mario Mandzucik and Nikita Jelavic, while Spain have conceded just the one goal in their last 6 matches at major tournaments.

The value seems to have gone from the Champions with 8/15 generally being the best offered about them, but there might be an inch of value in backing the Champions to get on the scoresheet twice through the correct scores. 2-0 and 2-1 Spain pay 6/1 and 15/2 respectively and both look big in light of the class that Spain possess going forward, while it’s not inconceivable to think that Croatia could work an opening  on the counter attack with the quality they showed against Ireland and Italy when going forward.

Advice

1 pt 2-0 Spain (6/1 general)

1 pt 2-1 Spain (8/1 Bodog)