It’s a mark of how good this tournament has been that we
come here with all 4 semi-finalists (Spain, Portugal, Germany and Italy) being
truly deserving of their place at this stage; They’ve been the 4 best teams at
this tournament. A relatively incident free tournament which has seen 69 goals,
just the 3 red cards, only the one goalless draw and several top quality goals
in the most important games, has now boiled down to arguably the cream of the
crop, and Spain are rated just a shade of odds on to set up a meeting with
either Italy or Spain by beating Portugal, the last of the 3 tips we have left
running tonight. As World and defending champions that’s understandable and
many punters – including those lucky enough to get odds against about them
beating Croatia and an extremely below par France – are sure to give strong
support to the still tournament favourites, who come here incredibly trying to
defend their legendary tiki – taka football in the wake of a “boring” victory
over France, with some Spanish media and many fans suggesting that they’d been
unambitious in their 2-0 win over Laurent Blanc’s side.
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| Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be at the focal point of Portugal's Euro 2012 challenge........ |
Saturday’s 2 goal hero Xabi Alonso has defended his team’s
style of play, saying that "Whatever people say I don't think we are going
to change" but some perspective is needed. The Spanish have scored 8 goals so far in the
tournament and lead nearly every attacking stat according to Opta’s statistical
data, and those who seem to find issue with their play must surely recoil at
the style of teams such as losing quarter finalists England and Greece, both of
whom mustered just 5 goals while playing stoic football. The main reason that Saturday’s quarter final
didn’t offer much enjoyment for enthusiasts would be the limp performance of
Laurent Blanc’s side who started with 2 right backs and never offered any real
threat going forward. It’s been a surprise not to see them shoulder most of the
blame for that limp night in Ukraine. That’s not to say that Spain have been
the best side at Euro 2012 – that award at this stage has to go to Germany –
but they’ve still be one of the highest quality side and they’re sure to take
the beating. Whether they should be just evens to accomplish the toughest task
they’ve had so far is another matter altogether, with both Italy and Croatia
having made them sweat hard for extended periods of the game.
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| ...While Andres Iniesta has been Spain's outstanding player of the |
And what of Portugal? Initially in our portfolio to cover
for Holland possibly underperforming, Paulo Bento’s men have improved in
bundles since their opening defeat to Germany (where they offered too much time
to Germany before producing a very catching late rally in the last 20 minutes) and
belied – to some extent – quotes of 20/1 being banded about them winning the tournament
beforehand. Ever since then they’ve been
far more forward and far more entertaining, and while their threat does come
mainly from Cristiano Ronaldo, it’s a strategy that has worked well for them
though, with Ronaldo leading the Golden Boot on 3 goals having had more shots
than anyone at the tournament.
There’s a slight worry that if Ronaldo can be stopped then
Portugal have no threat and thanks to the lack of a proper striker – only Silvestre
Varela has really had an impact in their games so far – that’s probably true,
but everything else about them seems to be good, as they have one of the best
defences in the competition (Bruno Alves and Pepe have been outstanding so far)
while Fabio Coentrao, João Pereira and João Moutinho all have genuine quality.
Spain will be a tough task for them but they made things very awkward for the
Spainsh at the last World Cup and may be dare I say, a better side this time?
There’s no value for us in backing Portugal at 7/2
(considering that if they make the final they would reward an each/way bet at
20/1) or the Spanish at odds against, although plenty of people will be
interesting in doing so. Spain have not conceded a goal in their last eight
knockout fixtures, with Italy, Russia, Germany, Portugal, Paraguay, Germany
again, Holland, and France trying (add “” for Blanc’s Frenchmen) and failing to
breakdown their rear-guard in knockout action. 5 of those games, including the
last competitive Iberian Derby at the World Cup, have been goalless at half
time, which would make best such as the half time draw and 0-0 half time score
very obvious. What’s more notable is
that 4 of those games have ended 1-0 to Spain after a goalless first half, and
the same eventuality at 17/2 with Paddy Power seems to be a very good hedge
against the disappointment of our outright fancies going out if Spain starve
Portugal of the chances to make an impact on the game, while Portugal
themselves are resolute when they want to be, having frustrated Germany until a
lucky break gave Gomez the opportunity. Another strong Spain trend is for most
of the goals to be in the second half – which has been the case against
Ireland, Italy, and Croatia so far this tournament, while it was the case with
their World Cup run to the final – and Portugal too have been involved with
games that have come to life after the break, with their opener against Germany
and their quarter final against the Czech Republic both being settled by late
goals.
Advice
3 pts 2nd half highest scoring (5/4 Betfred)
1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Spain 1-0
(17/2 Paddy Power)
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