Royal Ascot 2012 - Windsor Forest Stakes

3.05 Royal Ascot (Day 2, Race 2)

Windsor Forest Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £56,710

Advice: 1 pt win, 2 pts place Chachamaidee (9/2 Bet Victor, evs Blue Sq)

Emulous: Quickly developed into one of the leading female performers of last year with three wins on the spin, culminating in a deeply impressive Matron Stakes win from two Group 1 winning 3 year olds; Returned with an easy win in Curragh Group 3 (boosted by second and third both winning next time out) and should improve from that and take the beating; Does have to carry Group 1 winners penalty but probably the one to beat.

Nahrain: Took just 5 runs to become a Group 1 horse last season, getting better of Announce by just a head before then coming close second to Perfect Shirl in the Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf; Big chance on form and should take the beating, although this a hard race for her to comeback in under the Group 1 penalty; One of the standard setters.

Barefoot Lady: One of the most consistent horses of last season, running creditably on all her starts since winning Nell Gwyn Stakes (several times in Group 1 company); Not quite at same level since and well beaten by Emulous on previous form even with 5lbs turnaround, so passed over.

Beautrice Aurore: Made up into a solid filly last year with Group 3 win at Chantilly before solid efforts in higher grade company; Good return in Earl Of Sefton followed by more lacklustre effort in the Middleton Stakes last time up; Needs career best to win here.

Captivator: 5 but lightly raced for it and career best by some way when beating progressive Law Of The Range (reopposes here) at Kempton on AW first time up; Creditable effort once again to come second to Izzi Top in the Dahilia from behind off a very slow gallop; Gallop should  be better once again but this a harder race.

Chachamaidee: Second in this last year but improved since going upon impressive win in Oak Tree Stakes and Group 1 second to Saphresa (a little flattered) excellent form; Looked as good as she ever has when romping home in Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes (last to first and still had 2 lengths in hand at the line) and comes here sure to improve for that and without a penalty; First rate chance.

Clinical: Improver last year, winning 3 listed races in a row before coming third at Kempton last backend; Best effort yet when beating Joviality in Princess Elizabeth Stakes last time out and can come on again but this a different kettle of fish and much more needed today.

Dysphonia: Good horse in Native Australia; Easy winner of Leicester maiden (as she was entitled to do) but had previously been easily beaten by Chachamaidee in Windsor Forest and much more needed here.

I Love Me: Highly regarded filly who was last seen finishing fourth in last year´s Coronation Stakes; Decent chance based on that form but long absence is a putoff in race of this quality. 

Joviality: Proved herself to be a very useful filly last year with Group 3 win in the Musidora and fourth in the Falmouth (behind I Love Me in Coronation Stakes but should turn out to be fitter than that rival) beaten by Clinical at Epsom when one suspects that she wasn’t at home on the track and needs more today.

Law Of The Range: Very progressive last season, landing Ascot handicap of 82 before going onto win Listed event and ending up with rating of 103 after Oak Tree Stakes third; Only just beaten by Captivator in Listed AW Race at Kempton but since been exposed in her next two starts.

Lay Time: Progressed steadily throughought the whole of last season, winning maiden in good style before close handicap second; Not longed for that grade though, with creditable fourth to Theyskens Theory on ground that wouldn’t have suited and proved she had tons more to offer when running out a really ready Listed winner  at backend of last season; Seemed at odds with Epsom when disappointing there on reappearance but even then this a level up.

Rhythm Of Light: Winner of the Sandringham off mark of 94 here last season but exposed as not good enough for Group company since when behind Chachamaidee on next start; Creditable efforts since (notably when second in Turkish Group 2) but hard to get too excited about here.

VERDICT: A top quality renewal if all run to form. The betting seems to revolve around three quality fillies, which sees Matron Stakes winner Emulous having the benefit of a run over Nahrain, and Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes winner CHACHAMAIDEE getting 5lbs from the pair of them, which could be just enough to swing things her way in what promises to be a top clash if (as said above) all run to merit. The 9/2 on Henry Cecil’s filly is good value but should be supplemented by a place bet (essentially first three places). Those looking for a bigger price could do worse than Jovality, who didn’t handle Epsom last time out when behind Clinical and went for home too soon in last year’s Coronation Stakes.