London Buses and rugby might not quite match for some but
with the Top 14 having returned last night rugby fans can see the season starts
once again with the Rugby Championship – and/or four Nations – returning today.
The addition of Argentina into the tournament – a long overdue move - was a
universal success last year and gave the tournament greater reach and structure,
but the end outcome was the same with New Zealand stamping their class upon the
rugby world and a similar outcome is expected here.
The All Blacks bought home the second World Cup that their generation
had so deserved in 2011 but thoughts have now well and truly turned towards England
in 2015 and barring a draw against this morning’s Bliesdoe Cup rivals Australia
and their hammering at the hands of England last year, Steve Hansen’s side have
been largely untouchable, sealing their status as the world’s number 1 side.
And on the evidence available, they’re the number 1 side in the world by quite
some way.
A near clean sweep of Europe in the autumn was followed up
by a comprehensive 3-0 beating of France in the June Internationals, never
truly troubled apart from the first international when the French properly
turned up, and with 2015 only two years away the next generation is coming
through at a rate of knots.
All eyes will be on the return of Richie McCaw from his
sabbatical which began in such rotten style to begin with, but in Steven Luatua,
Kieran Read, Sam Cane and Liam Messam New Zealand have four of the best young
backrowers in the business and if his absence from the international stage should
prove troublesome thanks to rustiness, Hansen will have ample cover to call upon
and there’s plenty of opportunity for flexibility in playing terms.
Daniel Carter’s injury isn’t an ideal situation for Hansen given
the sabbatical he’s going to be taking to prepare for 2015 but in Aaron Cruden
the All Blacks have one of the most progressive players in the game and he’s
yet to put a foot wrong since taking the reins at 10 and if anything he’s now
imprinting his own style on the side with the help of playing partner Aaron
Smith, and between the two they’re making arguably the world’s best halfback
pairing at a rate of knots.
With such control any side would be a big attacking threat
but New Zealand’s special handling skills make this a different matter altogether
and the centre pairing of Nonu and Smith is as terrifying as ever, while Israel
Dagg’s been making a return to his World Cup form after a long string of below
par performances –he himself could be value for top Tryscorer honours. Ben
Smith and Julian Savea are just two of the names that could make a big
difference come 2015 and the front row of Franks, Hore, and Woodcock is one of
the world’s best.
With little to be concerned about on any front, another clean
sweep should be the aim and it’s not hard to see them repeating the trick for
the second straight season; Certainly 7/2 about them doing so is big enough for
us to get involved.
The biggest threat to that in our minds is clearly
Australia. Second last year, much has changed for the Wallabies in the past two
and a half seasons to say the least, much of it negative since they took the
2011 title playing some of the finest rugby they’ve seen in some years, but the
Deans era didn’t end as strongly as it began and after an acrimonious send off the
new Ewan McKenzie era could actually be the best option for the Australians at
this current moment in time.
Deans received untold criticism from some sections of the
Wallaby crowd during his reign but most of the last two years have been
blighted by injury which has made his job nigh on impossible at times, and never
was that more the case than during last year’s Championship. Since the end of
the 2011 World Cup Deans lost James O'Connor, James Horwill, Wycliff Palu,
David Pocock, Lachlan Turner, Stephen Moore, Will Genia, Scott Higginbotham,
Sekope Kepu and Christian Lealiifano to injury, but his side still managed to
scrape a second place even if it was with a side that averaged just one try a
game across the year – more than understandable in hindsight.
Despite that they then went to Europe and won three of four
games with an injury decimated side and while they were thrashed in the Lions
series decider it’s important to remember that the series was much closer
overall than that test suggested and that Australia, with better goalkicking,
would have come from behind to win the first test quite comfortably and they
completely outplayed the Lions in the second test despite the last gasp 1 point
win.
However the strength of the Lions pack and an early try
proved to be far too much and caught chasing the game, Australia were well and
truly put out of contention before being opened up but when gaining an equal
footholding are tough to stop and have as close to a full squad as they could
hope to get.
Quade Cooper isn’t picked for the opener against the All
Blacks but Matt Toomua is certainly an improvement on Joesph O’Connor, who had a
very poor series against the Lions orchestrating play and he should be able to
fully release Adam Ashley-Cooper and Christian Leali'ifano to much better
effect than we’ve seen, while the explosive pace of Israel Folau doesn’t need
an introduction following the first Lions test. Jesse Mogg’s inclusion at
fullback also adds even more pace, and while Australia aren’t known for their
forwards, they don’t lack for pack strength with two of the world’s best
flankers in Hooper and Gill while James Horwill is an admirable leader. Take
them to finish second in a straight forecast.
South Africa are the world’s second best side, but their
performances have not backed that up for a good while and the ranking looks
hard to justify. Since the 2011 World Cup the Springboks have embarked upon a
big transitional process, losing the bulk of the side that won that World Cup
and then the 2009 Lions series, especially in the pack with the likes of
Bakkies Botha retiring. New coach Henyke Meyer has had a tough task trying to
handle the transition with impatient fans who haven’t been pleased with a lack
of change in the playing style without the success.
The 4 South African sides in Super Rugby all made the most
kicks and all 4 averaged under 100 carries a game, while a high percentage of
driving mauls makes it pretty obvious what the gameplace will be. South Africa’s
Super 15 season was a strong one – several key players drove the Bulls to what
some will say should have been a final appearance – but with With Francois
Hougaard, Pierre Spies, Frans Steyn and Schalk Burger, JP Pietersen and Andries
Bekker all absent South Africa haven’t had the best luck on the absentee front
either although
Meyer’s squad has been most notable for two recalls;
scrum-half Fourie Du Preez, once the undisputed king of the scrum halves, who’s
only available for home tests, and that of Duane Veramelen. The latter has
shown the better form this season and at a higher level, and had a fine campaign
last time around, and if the former discovers something like his best it’s not
going to be impossible for him to be a gamechanger. That said, they’ve not impressed
for a while and there’s no obvious reason to back them for second place this
season ahead of Australia, who have the better scope and squad in our eyes.
Watch out for young talents JJ Englebrcht and Willie Le Roux to inject a flash
of pace into counterattacks.
Argentina’s inclusion in this last year was entirely justified
on their performance, which could have seen two wins in their first season, and
they should prove formidable opponents on the road once again. They’re a long
way away from challenging over the course of a whole championship – they got noticeably
weaker towards the end of the championship last season – but are blooding younger
players all the time and should gain more valuable experience for the likes of
Martin Diaz – who had a fine JWC - and Nicolas Sanchez, a promising halfback
who has still got a lot to see at 24. The back three of Hernandez, Imhoff and
Camacho is an example of how useful they have gotten, but it’ll be two or more
years before they can challenge for this in our opinion.
Advice
2 pts New Zealand to win every game (7/2 Bet Victor)
1 pt New Zealand/Australia (7/5 Bet Victor)
1 pt each/way Israel Dagg top Tryscorer (16/1 general)
1 pt each/way Isarel Folau top Tryscorer (16/1 Skybet)
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