Munster v Toulouse,
1.30, Thomond Park
It’s fitting that perhaps the last Heineken Cup as we know could have a set of the best quarter finalists in recent years and the first of four monster clashes can see Munster win out in the battle of the former winners and a rematch of the 2008 final against Toulouse.
Interlinked with the history of European club rugby, both
Munster and Toulouse have fine European pedigrees with the Irishmen having won
twice while Toulouse have landed this competition four times, and both can
harbour realistic hopes of winning the tournament this time around.
Munster were beaten in an epic semi final last year, defying
pre-match predictions against Clermont when pushing the runners up last year,
and now have found much more of a rhythm with Rob Penney – who is leaving next
year in a surprising move – much ore influential on a team that has moved on
from Rona O’Gara with Conor Murray in the best form of his carer for club and
country around Ian Keatley at halfback.
The attempts at a more expansive style caused trouble last
year but they looked excellent in the group stages and lie second in the Pro12
behind Leinster, having bounced back
from a below par performance against Treviso the week before by going to the
Aviva as the away side and going down by just 4 points in an excellent
preparation run for the intensity they’ll experience today.
Toulouse are much maligned on the road but we should give
notice to the impressive performance that Toulouse pulled off when beating
Saracens in the pool stages. However the moving of that game to Wembley didn’t
help for the atmosphere the Wolfpack have become accustomed to infront of their
own at Allianz Park. At home they’ve been as immaculate as every other French
team in the Top 14 although they suffered a shock reverse to Connacht infront
of their own, but the worry today will be not just their away record – 1 win in
12 in the Top 14 – is too hard to ignore at a place where the hosts have so
much power with only one home loss in their last 24 and the hosts have to be a confident selection to pass a handicap of just 4 points infront of the Thomond faithful on their way to an away semi final.
Advice
5 pts Munster -4 (10/11 Paddy Power)
Clermont (1/5) v Leicester (11/2)
4PM, Stade Marcel Michelin
There are home records and there’s Clermont. Heading into
today’s quarter final against Leicester, Vern Cotter’s side have 74 straight victories
to their name at the Stade Marcel Michelin, having not lost against any
opposition for 5 years. Those include two victories over Leicester Tigers, but Richard
Cocerkill’s men should not be discounted before their quarter-final today.
At the draw stage in late January Les Jaunards would have
been over the moon with a home draw against a Tigers side that looked and was a
shadow of the outfit that won the Premiership in such style last season with
Manu Tuilagi amongst a whole host of important absentees but as the year has
turned they’ve hit their strongest form and the return of key figurers has seen
them hit the heights of hold since then and they now come here having scored
108 points in their last three games with thrashings of Newcastle on the road
and Exeter infront of the Welford Road faithful, but the most significant
recent result of any side going into the last eight may well have been their
win in the hated derby against Northampton when they made the running early and
matched a level; of intensity that their hosts just couldn’t match even when
coming into the game late.
The nature of the Top 14 is that home advantage means a home
win, which makes it easy to forgive Clermont’s loss at Brive last week when
they came down from 20-3 at halftime and 23-10 down with just 15 minutes to go
to go down by just two points, and their home form in itself this season explains
just why they are the shortest pieces of all the home sides this weekend.
However even at this fortress they’re not infallible. Two
weeks ago Toulon came here and put on a superb attacking show when they were
unlucky not to break the winning streak and in the pool stages Harlequins came
with confidence and carried out their quick, rapid gameplan to great effect
even after going 20-3 down, dominating the large majority of that pool game.
Leicester faced a similar task of similar magnitude going to
Toulon but could have pushed the eventual winners much closer than a 23-15
scoreline suggested at the end and bring the front row and pack strength to
play the tight, nuanced game that doesn’t suit Clermont as much as the free
running they employed in the knockout stages last year.
Accusations of choking have been level at Cotter’s men, who
exited late in the Top 14 after their final defeat last year, but their recent
record in the knockout stages is not of undue concern here and while the losses
of Vosloo, Byrne and Sivivatu especially are blows, Buttin and Nakatiaci have
looked a natural pair of replacements for a long time and even though Chouly is
an 8 playing at seven is is an experienced International.
When pushed for a final verdict, I would hope – being a
supporter of Clermont and an ante post backer – that home advantage could see
the Januards through but I couldn’t put anyone off the 11 point handicap being offered
by Coral and the 10 point handicap offered everywhere else, which is a useful
position to shore up emotional and financial positions.
Advice
1 pt Leicester +11 (10/11 Coral)
Ulster v Saracens
6PM, Ravenhill
Saracens and Ulster met last season in a game that was a
rather one sided affair but tonight’s clash is sure to be anything but as the
tables are turned with the Wolfpack now travelling to the fully completed new
Ravenhill tonight in one of the hardest of the four quarters to call for many.
Ulster were flying with an early start last season with a
young side reaching heights not many had predicted under Mark Anscombe but
flagged as the season went on with injuries a plenty taking their toll. However
this year, while not having opened up the lead that they did at the top of the
table in the Pro12 they are sitting pretty in a good third ahead of the
playoffs.
With a home semi final after this against Clermont, there is
a feeling that this spefici generation has a unique chance to make a bodld
European bid. Not on the same level of Leinster when they met in the final 2
years ago, they have lost a Pro12 semi and final to the same side in 2011 and
last year, away to Saints in 2011 and then after such a good start to the
season, last year in what turned out to be a ready success for the hosts.
This year they showed their class and intentions in going 6
for 6, beating Leicester on the final day to book a home spot here but also
equally as impressive when dismantling Montpellier in such fine style in the
early group stages. All centres around Ruan Pienaar in terms of the gameplan
although Paddy Jackson is a transformed man from the nervous outhalf who has
frozen in the headlights so many times before.
Saracens, for all that they are dominating England’s
Premiership in ominous style, have not been as impressive in Europe. They were
outmuscled and edged by a point by Toulouse at home when moving away from
Wembley may not halve helped their prospects with Allianz Park now a fortress
and they had no other meaningful opposition to speak of at that stage, making
the two defeats they suffered inconsequential in terms of getting a quarter
final spot.
On a line through Leicester with the league table in mind
Sarries have a very competitive chance here, as shown by the handicap of just
three points, and both sides have been mean in defence this year with 9 trues
conceded between them in the group stages – in short this is a very hard game
to call and predict properly. No tryscorer is interesting but with the quality
of the backlines and two international outhalves capable of creating something
from nothing it makes no appeal and this game is best left.
Advice
No bet
Toulon v Leinster
4.30PM, Stade Felix Mayol
The motto of keeping the best for last rings true in many
sports and today’s last Heineken Cup final, between the two teams that have
lifted the Heineken Cup four times in the last 5 years along with the Challenge
Cup on two other occasions, promises for many to be the best of the four
quarter finals so far.
And that’d s no mean feat given the quality of play Munster
and Toulouse put together along with the superb finishes to Clermont and
Saracens’ wins in a thrilling all round day of action and these two, if showing
their best, promise to match it.
Toulon’s millions have taken a club in the doldrums less
than a few years ago to elite status and there was a feeling of inevitability
about their Triumph last season even given the dramatic nature of the final in
which they pulled back a sustained gap to Clermont late on for the win.
When the going got tough in the knockout stages after an extremely
smooth group run they showed adaptability in both their quarter final against
Leicester and their semi against Saracens last year in switching from the flair
and skill game their backs are more than capable of operating to the grinding
pack power which they possess in equal measure, taking Saracens down in style
at their own game at Wembley, bellying the
In Leinster, while they face a team that – according to many
– might have suffered a little for the loss of Joe Shcmidt and Johnny Sexton –
still has few equals in knockout rugby and, as if any reminder was needed of
their talents, most of the side that won the 6 Nations just over a month ago.
Some would say that they’re a lesser team without those two
– which is true – but they served notice of the skill and talent they hold from
1-15 when destroying Northampton the pool stages and also coming from 19-7 down
to eventually run out a ready winner over Castres on the road, underlying the
know-how that they’ve used to build one of Europe’s most impressive away
records.
Leinster have 13 wins and 2 draws from their last 21 away
matches in the Heineken Cup, including a semi final win at Clermont in recent
years, reversing the two defeats in the pool stages in recent years.
When the draw was made Leinster, while aggrieved to have
been given such an assignment, could have been entitled to feel like they had a
winners’ chance with Toulon in a rock period of form in the Top 14 including a home
loss to Grenoble that followed a pair of hefty away defeats, but they have won
five of their last 6 games, including a superb showing against Clermont when
they were unlucky not to have ended their winning streak and then getting the
better of a shootout against Toulouse which had just 4 points in it at the end.
With both teams’ class and flexibility, not mention reaching
fever pitch before with wins over key rivals the week before handicap of just 4
points is understandable before this game. Many will have home advantage seeing
Toulon just through but if any side can take a semi final spot from the road it
would be the visiting men and maybe the value lies in going overs on the points
– Toulon coned 20 points at least when playing infront of their own and
Leinster scored 40 and 29 points on visits to Saints and Castres – although
both sides could easily go for forward power and this is a game that may be
best watched.
Advice
No bet (Consider going high on points, 1-5 winning margins)
No comments:
Post a Comment