Royal Ascot 2012 - Queen's Vase

5.00 Royal Ascot (Day 4, Race 5)

Queen's Vase (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £34,026

Advice: 1 pt win Yazdi (5/1 general), 1 pt each/way Perennial (9/1 general)

Athens: Bumped into a couple of decent performers at 2; Beaten in Group races on each occasion this year barring 1m2f win at Navan (came on soft ground), setting good pace but easily passed on both occasions (fifth in French Group 2, third in Gallinule); Yard have won this in 2007/2010 and had second in 2009, but worry that he’s exposed and stamina not a certainty; Opposable on balance.

Ed De Gas: Looked a horse with a future and well capable of holding his own in better company when hacking up at Catterick two starts back (12f in soft, one would think he could get this trip); Disappointing in Lingfeild Derby trial and while that’s forgivable, this another tough task for him.

Flying Trader: Made it two handicap wins on the AW when getting the better of now non-runner Spanish Wedding, and then second when trying to make it 2 on the bounce in Sandown handicap; That off just 77 so this going to take too much.

Macbeth: Easily made all in 1m4f maiden at Gowran on return and then ran well when upped in class, ahead of Athens in Gallinule before second to Backbench Blues;

Minimise Risk: Made a very promising debut at Doncaster in a race that has produced two other winners (tightened up) and then impressed many when showing strong attitude to beat Uriah Heap on soft ground at Newbury (travelled by far the best of any horse in that race before being brought into prolonged battle);Ran stinkers in better company, but step up to 2m gives hope he can get back on track; Interesting on early form but does have something to prove.

Perennial: Got better of really promising Godolphin colt Encke (deeply impressive winner himself since) from poor position himself after staying well late on at Doncaster and then slightly unlucky in Autumn Stakes; Poor run on comeback but better when 2l third of four in Listed race at Goodwood (1m3f) behind the progressive Michaelangelo and solid Expense Claim; Needs respecting on that basis as step up in trip might improve; Ground a question.

Singalat: Won only once from nine starts as a two year old; Better this year on first two starts when staying on into third at Pontefact and then again when winning at Chester, but both those races were low handicap contests and once again needs to find tons of improvement just to get involved.

Somemothersdohaveem: Won 1m6f handicap at Yarmouth last time out but that does not put him down as a potential Group winners and readily passed over.

Yazdi:  Staying on third in 10f maiden is arguably the best form here (first and second both gone onto seconds in Group races to horses that have since run in Derby) and improved once again for the step up in trip when making short work of inferior opposition in Thirsk maiden; Notable that he didn’t do it all on the bridle so sure to love this step up in trip and has to be feared.

Estimate: Top class family, one of the Queen’s Best (half-sister Gold Cup winner Enzeli and Irish Oaks winner Ebadiyla); Left one juvenile start well behind when winning Salisbury maiden 7 weeks ago, and did it in very good style; Bred to come into her own at this distance and won like it last time, so no surprise that she’s been swell supported and sure to take the beating.

VERDICT: Plenty of angles to approach this race from. YAZDI and PERENNIAL, both of whom have good links to group form this year, shape as if they’ll not only stay but relish 2 miles, and that gives them the joint vote, with Estimate – also one set to come into her own for a stamina test -well respected for Sir Michael Stoute and The Queen. Yazdi would be the first winner to come straight from maiden company in some time but he looks like he’s going to do nothing but improve tbased on his first two runners. Athens comes from a yard with a good record in this, but he doesn’t look as good as either of their winners and seems exposed after well beaten efforts in Group company, while Minimise Risk also has something to prove on that score, although he did look a promising colt before two Group failures.