Euro 2012 - Spain v Italy

Following on from Germany’s 1-0 win over Portugal, we have another heavyweight clash with regining World and European Champions Spain taking on Italy, who have transformed themselves in two years to get back into Championship contention.

So often considered underachievers on the world stage, Spain’s meteoric rise – and the silky football which has accompanied it – has led to them gaining a huge amount of admiration, with many calling them one of the best international sides of recent years. Vicente Del Bosque’s side breezed through qualifying, scoring 26 goals in an unbeaten eight match stroll towards the finals, and even with the hugely off-putting price (they’re understandably just 3-1 to win the whole tournament outright) backed up the statistic that no team has ever retained this trophy, they’re still seen by many (and rightly so) as the team to beat.

The main reason behind the opposition towards a third straight major trophy? The absence of David Villa, their record goalscorer and unquestionable talisman, who was so crucial to them winning the World Cup, scoring 5 of the eight goals that led their team to glory in South Africa. In his absence Spain can still pick from two talented but arguably flawed strikers. Fernando Torres was once considered one of the best strikers in the World (and probably is underrated) but that has come due to scoring just 6 goals in 32 games for Chelsea, most of them being totally ineffective. He did have a strong end to the season though, winning the FA Cup and Champions League, and his style of play seems to suggest he would be best suited towards the likely threaded through balls that Spain will use.  The main alternative is Fernando Llorente, who was superb for Alethic Bilbao throughought the season on their runs towards the Copa Del Rey and Europa League finals, can play strong holding football, is an excellent heads of the ball, and extremely proficient at tight, technical football; The negative with him would be the fact that he’s had an arduous campaign, ending with the Copa del Rey final between Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao late in May, and he’d lost some of his threat towards the end of both campaigns.

The alarming strength of Spain’s squad means that the likes of Pedro – a razor sharp finisher for Barcelona – have been left unconsidered, but whoever they start upfront with they should take a great deal of fearing. The midfield dynasty (Iniesta, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Busqests) that gave them such total domination still remains, although many have serious doubts over the loss of  Carlos Puyol in central defence, although Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique and Alvaro Arbeloa make a classy defence and Iker Casillas is the world’s best goalkeeper in many eyes.

So what of the Italians? World Cup winners in 2006, they were the very team that Spain broke their curse against in 2008, eliminating them on penalties after a 0-0 draw, which signalled the start of a decline that saw them leave South Africa without a win from their Group. Out went Marcelo Lippi and in came Cesare Prandelli, and the last two years have seen a quite remarkable change in what many had seen as a finished side.  20 goals scored is encouraging, but just two conceded is a startling statistic (less than any other team making it here) and while the pidgeon holing of Cesare Prandelli’s team as the “boring” side of years gone past is wrong, they will be one of the hardest teams to get past, and they’re likely to make things very difficult for Spain in the opening game.

Plenty will be tempted by the 5/6 given by Coral on the reigning Champions and while it’s hard to argue with that, there could be some very nervous moments for favourite backers. Hotly fancied Germany had to wait for a long time before breaking down Portugal and a similar game here isn’t hard to envisage, while Spain have never scored in three European Championship games against the Azzurri, though Italy themselves have only scored once in these three games combined.

With under 2.5 goals – by far the most coming outcome in opening European Championship games with 35/48 having stayed that way since 1980 – seeming very likely, the value may be with Spain to get off to the perfect start, but not without a struggle or two. All of their wins at the World Cup in 90 minutes were either 1 or 2-0, and those correct scores look to be the best way to get with the Champions.

Another interesting trend from Spain gams at the World Cup was the half time score and scoring trends. All of Spain’s games (apart from their game against Honduras) were 0-0 at the break, and 4 of them ended with Spain winning 1-0; A repeat today is 8/1 with Sportingbet. Don’t be afraid to think of some late goalscorer bets, with Spain having scored in their bigger games at the World Cup after the 46^th minute on nearly all occasions. The first goals in the 2^nd half is an 11/5 shot, but we’ve got our eggs in the Spain basket with the correct scores and also the 0-0 HT draw rolled into the 1-0 win.

Italy, set to play the 3-5-2 formation that saw Juventus go unbeaten in Serie A, pose a great threat but might be lacking in attack with Andrea Cassano’s serious injury likely to have taken away from his fitness and Guiseppe Rossi absent, although Mario Balotelli is more than capable of leading the line on his own. If you do fancy the Italians though, then the 1-0 score is the way to go; Italy scored just 1 goal in 4 matches during qualifying.

Advice

1 pt 1-0 Spain (5/1 general)

1 pt 2-0 Spain (13/2 general)

1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Spain 1-0 (8/1 Sportingbet)