As tries become scarcer in the 6 Nations the top tryscorer
markets become much much tighter, and recent history has shown that in a low scoring
tournament there’s plenty of places up for grabs. In three of the last four
tournament there’s been a tie for one of the first four places at the end of
the tournament – some we reaped the benefit of when Wesley Fofana tied for
second, albeit with four others.
This year, the two market leaders both come from Wales,
aiming for a third 6 Nations title in a row and facing Scotland and Italy at
home – both sides who are heavily beaten on their away trips on average,
especially at the Millennium stadium. George North has been outscored by Alex
Cuthbert over the past two years, but the marginally bigger price on offer for
the 21 year old, with Stan James offering 4 places and ¼ the odds, makes appeal
with the Welsh gameplan involving the most space outside of any team to be
exploited. There’s a worry of Lions fatigue for them, but in a tournament
that’s traditionally become tighter and tighter even just two tries might be
enough for a share of place money and they’re capable of far more.
Wesley Fofana stormed onto the scene with four tries in his
first season before nabbing the score of the tournament at Twickenham, and
while France’s woes are a worry, he makes more appeal than the mix and match
partnerships likely to be used by Ireland, England’s rookies, or even Scotland’s
talented back division with worries over creativity for the latter two teams,
and he can reward each/way support.
Leigh Halfpenny is favourite and a strong one for the top
pointscorer honours but the value looks to be gone at 11/8 in places. 9/2 about
Jonathan Sexton is a tempting price with Ireland likely to turn to 3 pointers
in both London and Paris.
Advice
1 pt each/way George North (7/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Wesley Fofana (12/1 Paddy Power)
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