Dubai World Cup 2012

6.40 Meydan

Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Group 1) (AWT) (3yo +)

Advice: 1 pt each/way Game On Dude (10/1 Coral, Sportingbet),Smart Falcon (13/2 Ladbrokes), 0.5 pt each/way Planteur (16/1 Sportingbet)

Master Of Hounds: Rapidly progressive at end of 2yo for Ballydoyle before being moved to Mike De Kock at the end of 3yo season; Ran solid races on every start here and best effort yet when landing the Jebel Hatta here given a front running ride; Last two renewals of the race have been slowly run affairs which would make him interesting off the front end, although suspicion is that there are a few stronger than him.

Eishin Flash: Has some very smart form when he’s on his game, being a Japanese Derby winner before then coming close second in 2m Group 1; Right back to his best when close second behind Orfervre in Arima Kinen and that sort of form makes him a very interesting contender.

Zazou: Took his time to find form through last season but would be given huge chance based on his third in the Hong Kong Cup or a literal reading of his win over Cirrus Des Aigles at Chantilly; Needs respecting.

So You Think: Australian sensation who went long way to fulfilling the hype that he carried with him when winning Tattersalls Gold Cup, Coral Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes last year, proving to be too keen of his own good on two other occasions and given too much ground to make up during the Arc; Poor effort when only sixth in Breeders Cup Classic but then again over the top and better expected today from plum draw, although worry that he could be below peak fitness (notably hard to get fit throughought last season).

Smart Falcon: Comes here off a winning streak of 9, one of which when beating last year’s second Transcend in JBC Classic; Left a stark visual impression when smashing the course record in the Kawaski Kinen, has a super draw, and represents country that know how to win this event, so really high on shortlist despite worrying story about his weight loss from transatlantic flight earlier this week.

Planteur: Seemingly limitless potential when breaking course record to beat Sarafina in the Prix Ganay but disappointed since then, coming well behind So You Think at Royal Ascot before finishing unplaced when tried over a mile twice; Back to correct trip today and interesting with conditions set to suit given 3-3 record on seasonal debut under Ryan Moore.

Royal Delta: One of the best fillies in America last year, winning Alabama in deeply impressive fashion (emphasis on stamina) before winning Breeders Cup Ladies Classic; Eight length thrashing handed to her by Awesome Maria best ignored but on a line through Havre De Grace she has a lot of ground to make up on Game On Dude.

Monterosso: Hugely encouraging return from nearly a year off when fourth behind Capponi beaten only 6 & ½ lengths, having been a close third in this last year; Feeling is that this is a stronger renewal but if race was to be played out in same fashion, then impossible to discount.

Silver Pond: Ran into plenty of high quality horses last year in France, beating Beakhabad by a short head on his seasonal reappearance before coming third in Grand Prix De Saint Cloud, eight in Arc and then third in Hong Kong Vase; Good reappearance second behind Capponi in  Maktoum Challenge Round 3 but needs more today.

Transcend: Close second in this last year having nearly stolen the race from the front; Since beaten by Smart Falcon but also won two Grade 1 events, and had to be rushed hard get to make the lead when well beaten at ½ last time out; This seems like a stronger renewal this year but of interest if allowed to gain a good posse.

Capponi: Made seriously progressive progress this season, reversing form with Sarrsar in handicaps before running away with the Group 1 round 3 of the Maktoum Trials Challenge last time out; If he take another step forward like that then he’d have to come into the reckoning despite the obvious step up in class and once again.

Prince Bishop: Back in great style when winning handicap off 110 with ease and make up in some ways for disappointment of only being fifth in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 when third behind Capponi last time; Interesting that he’s the choice of Frankie Dettori today although others from Godolphin and in general preferred.

Mendip: Sixth in Dubai Duty Free having won two Group 3’s and fourth behind Musir on seasonal reappearance; Impressive when winning Group 2 and would be a lot shorter than 33’s if he hadn’t disappointed behind Capponi last time but come up short before on the big night last year and might do so once again.

Game On Dude: As tough and consistent as they come and followed up deserved first Grade 1 win with game Breeders Cup’ Classic second (ahead of So You Think but those placings may well be reversed); Still of considerable interest even from his wide draw given strong record of Americans in this race before Tapeta and if overcoming his wide draw, deserves a lot of interference.

VERDICT: A fiercely competitive race with plenty of angles form both a racing and betting perspective. Given a slowly run race, no runner could be fully discounted given an easy lead, as the last two winners have shown us (despite both those winners being class horses in their own right). So You Think’s form makes him entirely deserving of favouritism but there’s a little bit of guessing as to how entirely fit he’ll be and given his keenness throughought last season, a slowly run race would be a serious worry for him here and while he could be a class above, he does seem short enough on 5/2 on his seasonal debut. SMART FALCON’s next best and deserving of serious respect, something which doesn’t seem to have been given to Bob Baffert’s GAME ON DUDE, who has been given the worst possible draw, to come out from, although he’s now become value of because of that and if he can get a good break, then his Breeders Cup form gives him a major chance. On a line through Havre De Grace he holds Royal Delta (who should show better than her reappearance this year), while Zazou and Einshin Flash are just one of many with chances at decent prices. Those who want a decent price could do a lot worse than PLANTEUR, who looked to have a promising future last year before things went awry and he was tried over a different trip twice. Back over his best surface he can go well for Ryan Moore. 

Dubai Sheema Classic 2012

6.00 Meydan

Dubai Sheema Classic Presented By Longines (Group 1) (Turf) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner $10,463,894

Advice: 5 pts win Cirrus Des Aigles (3/1 general)

Songcraft: Brought from France with mark of 105 and got away with running over 10 furlongs on handicap/UAE debut before winning once again in handicap company; Creditable effort on first Group start when third in Dubai City of Gold last time out when never quite able to get into the race and does have first time blinkers but needs a huge amount more today.

Bold Silvano: Potentially one of the best South African recruits that Mike De Kock has brought over and tempting hint of his ability with easy Group 3 win nearly a year ago; Disappointed on return from injury but didn’t improve on it in Round 3 of Al Maktoum Challenge and questions over his fitness right now.

Beaten Up: Meteoric rise from Ripon maiden to Group 3 achieved in only 3 starts last season, winning all three starts with ease in the end; Not hard pushed to beat useful Al Kazeem at Newbury last time and deserves major respect coming here, for all that this is a much harder test once again on his seasonal debut.

Mahbooba: Back in great style with easy win over 1m1f on seasonal reappearance but beaten at 2/5 in Group 2 Cape Verdi; Reversed that form over the extra furlong when ridden strongly to do so and while step up to this trip is what she needs, she’s been exposed before against Males.

Cavalryman: Third in 2009 Arc but not been seen in the same form since moving to Godolphin and exposed on numerous occasions since, especially when fifth in this in 2010; Needs to do much better to have a hope despite promising second in City Of Gold behind Mikhali Glinka last time out.

Treasure Beach: Started remarkable progression throughought last year when winning Chester Vase first time out & career best when beating all but Pour Moi at Epsom; Followed that up when strong at the finish of Irish Derby and probably unsuited by going off so hard in Grand Prix De Paris, although he was second best to Meandre and Reliable Man that day; Battling win in Secretariat Stakes was last previous win but went off to hard in Arc and well over the top by the time that he’d come third in the Canadian International, so has a realistic claim of being right there at the finish.

Jakkalberry: Decent performer when trained in Italy last year, although he was well beaten in the only Group 1 he’s contested in his last 5 starts (does have one top level win, that being in June 2010); Third behind Fox Hunt and Opinion Poll on UAE debut and that level of form not good enough here. 

Cirrus Des Aigles: Finally got group 1 win on the board after numerous attempts when coming with late charge to land Champion Stakes at Ascot three starts back; Might not have been suited by Sha Tin course in Hong Kong Cup (also a very slowly run race too) and needed the run pretty badly when well beaten behind Zazou in France on two runs since, but should be at something close to peak fitness right now and that form makes him the one to beat here.

St Nicholas Abbey: Unbeaten on left handed tracks (4/4); Looked set for big things at two, having shown great turn of foot to land Racing Post Trophy & recaptured that spark after disappointing period with wins in Ormonde Stakes (by 9 lengths) and Coronation Cup; Didn’t quite have things drop his way until renaissance in Breeders Cup Turf, which was arguably his best performance; That form makes him a leading contender but slight worry that he’s been beaten twice on his seasonal reappearance, for all that he’s had valid excuses on both occasions.

Shimraan: Ran to high level of form when third behind Byword on final start for Alain De Royer Dupre but not actually run to that level of form on either of his Godolphin runs so far and has a large amount to find on form.

VERDICT: A cracking match up on form between St Nicholas Abbey, who would be a very appropriate winner following the untimely death of his sire Montjeu earlier this week, and Champion Stakes winner CIRRUS DES AIGLES, who hasn’t been seen at his best in two starts since, although he has valid excuses for both defeats and rates a serious bet with the trip and ground likely to be no problem for him. St Nicholas Abbey is as good as any on his Breeders’ Cup Turf form, although he hasn’t had the current advantage of a run which seems to bring him on so much. William Haggas’s Beaten Up has only had three starts but he’s won all of them easily and will be a much better horse for a stronger gallop, for all that this will be a much harder test coming off a 161 day break. Treasure Beach is likely to be seen as the O’Brien second string but if he can find his best form then he has to be a major contender. The best outsider is probably Songcraft. 

Dubai Duty Free 2012

5.25 Meydan

Dubai Duty Free (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo plus)

Advice: 1 pt win (4/1 general), 3 pts place Ambitious Dragon (5/4 Betfair), 2 pts place California Memory (4/1 Betfair)

Green Destiny: Improved 30lbs since winning Newmarket handicap off 87 at the beginning of last season and showed smart turn of foot when winning Arc Trial, having been previously quite poorly placed; Creditable sixth in Champion Stakes but stone last when in Round 3 of Maktoum Challenge and this seems too hard for him anyway.

Await The Dawn: Shaped with potential at two & again bettered that at three, signing off with a 9 length Group 3 rout at Leopardstown & same story when storming clear at Chester under penalty on first run of 2011; Simply more impressive when blasting his way through heavy ground in the Hardwicke and looked set for campaign geared towards Classic, but then sadly fell travelsick; Clearly not right on either of his last two runs and interesting although fitness has to be a worry once again and there’s also the worry of how this trip will suit.

Rajasman: Gained a deserved group win after solid efforts in higher class company when beating Rio De La Plata on Arc weekend but has since disappointed, including twice running poor races here; Others preferred.

Ambitious Dragon: Class act and 5 time Group 1 winner; Caught out by slowly run race in Hong Kong Cup three starts back but put in two superb efforts when beating California Memory with ease in Stewards Cup and Hong Kong Gold Cup the last twice, barely off the bridle for first success before repeating trick last time out; That form marks him out at the one to beat.

Musir: Class act and looked as good as ever when winning Group 3 events on his first two starts this season with ease, but unable to find an answer after going wide in Burj Nahaar last time out; Better drawn this time but this yet tougher still.

Delegator: Not long ago since he was taking big hand in high class mile races, and shaped as if ability was there last season before injury (bruised foot) intervened; Made successful return to sprinting when mowing down field in Duke Of York Stakes; Bettered that form when unlucky in July Cup, doing best of those drawn wide (he was 17 of 17) before injuring himself in Lennox Stakes; Fairly ready winner on seasonal reappearance but that at a comfortable trip for him and always likely to be easier for him off 111; Back up in trip and class, others preferred.

Dark Shadow: Progressing far, winning his last two events over this specific trip before going down just a half-length to Tosen Jordan in Tenno Sho and following that up with creditable second to Trailblazer in Toyoto Kinen last time out; That form should see him being there or thereabouts so no surprise to see him right there.

California Memory: Took advantage of canny ride in slowly run race to land Hong Kong Cup when he had Ambitious Dragon held in fourth; Never able to strike in a blow over a mile in Stewards’ Cup after getting caught hideously wide onto the home turn before being beaten fair and square last time out but that form still gives him a big chance and worthy of support.

Xtension: Ahead of California Memory but behind Ambitious Dragon on last two runs, form which puts him right there at the finish; Easily beaten on both occasions and had a much easier run than California Memory on both occasions but no reason why he shouldn’t give his running once again.

Muthadee: Useful for Tommy Stack in Ireland but improved leaps and bounds since joining Mike De Kock team, winning two handicaps in easy/impressive style before unlucky third in Jebel Hatta, when given too much to do when third behind stablemate Master Of Hounds; It should be noted that this will provide a yet tougher test of his ability but it would be churlish to suggest that he didn’t have more to give and he’s a contender.

Cityscape: Already confirmed as solid group performer but took his form to another level last season when first or second on all but one occasion; Best effort when just behind Able One in the Hong Kong Mile at the end of last season; Would have to be given a big chance based on that form and one who should be there or thereabouts with a step up in trip not likely to be any real bother on him.

Presvis: Winner of this last year, showing that he retains all the ablity that has carried him to previous success at top level when things fall right for him; Worry that he’s shown little form of late to be honest and needs everything to go right including in stronger race than last year.

City Style: One of many handicap improvers throughought this carnival, coming a close enough second to Musir over this C&D before coming a close runner up to Master Of Hounds in the Jebel Hatta; Worry about whether he’ll actually retain his form with Muthadee from that occasion and there seem to be a few too good in this race.

Rio De La Plata: Would have a much better chance based on all his efforts during last season, the best of them being his close second to Excelebration in the Moulin; Below best on both starts at this carnival with no obvious excuses and has to step up majorly on what he's done so far.

Wigmore Hall: Gained a deserved Group 1 win after many unlucky trips (most of all when blocked for a run behind Cape Blanco in Arlington Million) in Canadian International; No wins since and would need everything to drop just right in much stronger renewal than the one he finished third in last year.

Duabwi Gold: Improved beyond all recognition on two year old form last year and overcame mid-season blip to post three storming efforts in Group 1 company last year, including when only a length behind Able One; Never able to land in a blow in the Jebel Hatta last time out from wide drawn and today might be the same story.

VERDICT: Arguably the strongest race on the card and a class act in AMBITIOUS DRAGON who will take the beating if reproducing the form which has seen him win two of Hong Kong’s toughest races on the bridle, and he could well be going for a hat – trick if the Hong Kong Cup hadn’t been a slowly run affair. He had CALIFORNIA MEMORY behind him on two of those occasions and along with Xtension, there seems to be no reason why he can’t be on the premises once again along with Xtension. Cityscape and Dark Shadow add plenty of depth, while Muthadee’s new found improvement will make him very popular even taking a step up in class. 

Dubai Golden Shaeen 2012

4.35 Meydan

Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Gulf News (Group 1) (AWT) (3yo +)

Advice: 1 pt win Rocket Man (7/2 Hills), 1 pt place The Factor (10/11 Bet Victor), 0.5 pt Tricast Rocket Man/The Factor/Sepoy (42.50 Bet365)

Rocket Man: Impressive winner of this race last year and won three more races (two of them Group 1 events) before disappointing a little in Japan, although mid race interference is said to have lost him crucial momentum in Japan; Blowout in Hong Kong Sprint but wide draw killed his chances and he’s got the inside chute today, so no excuses at all.

Happy Dubai: Got on a winning run a couple of years ago in the AUE when front running tactics were tried with much success but struggled with his rise in the weights, only winning once from 6 2012 starts, and surprise if he can actually make a real impact here.

Giant Ryan: Won his sixth straight race of a remarkable year in 2011/12 when keeping Force Freeze at home in a very good renewal of the Vosbrugh Stakes; Bit of a Breeders’ Cup disappointment there and while best form would see him with a big chance here, he’s been off since and there would have to be a question mark about his readiness.

Russian Rock: Going for a hat trick here off the back of wins at Jebel Ali, including one in a listed race, but that form still a good 10lbs below what’s required to win this.

Kyrpton Factor: Impressed many with his two wins over this C&D this season, including a smooth success over Hitchens following his defeat in Al Shindagha Sprint (may have gone a touch too quickly for his own good);

Hitchens: Brought his improved form from Dubai to the Carnival this season, coming second behind Captain Obvious before nailing Krypton Factor in Group 3 Mahab Al Shimaal; That rival got first run but did look quite superior when winning well last time out and in any case this is a far harder task for him.

 The Factor: One of the fastest horses in training, as shown by his blistering win in the Pat O’Brien Stakes off the back of a four month layoff; Susceptible to being taken on for the lead though, as was shown when he got overturned at 2/5 in the Ancient Title Stakes before the Breeders Cup (a run best forgotten given how he clearly doesn’t stay much longer than a sprint distance); Deeply impressive on last two starts when getting lead he wants and as good as any if that happens, although worry if he gets taken on.

Iver Bridge Lad: As tough and likeable as they come but hard to see him winning this based on his three best runs this season, as a mark of 108 has already stopped him in handicap company.

Sepoy: Champion 3yo sprinter in Australia who came up just short in bid for seven timer in Oakleigh Plate, when conceding topweight to all and trying to run finish out of them from the front; Might be better off with a shorter trip and could have been better drawn but no denying his class and needs serious respecting today.

Inxile: Best when trying to run the finish out of his rivals and that likely to be near impossible in a race of this class; Others readily preferred.

Soul: Listed and Group 2 winner in Australia who won 6f handicap easily here off 109 but form doesn’t compare to some of the better types here and has a huge task on his hands if he wants to be winning here.

Lucky Nine: One of the best sprinters in Hong Kong, winning Hong Kong Sprint in good style, although things worked out much better for him than Rocket Man; Not quick enough for 5f next time out but other two solid efforts convice that he has a big chance here; Drawn all the way out in 12 though, so will need some luck here although he’s sure to have the race run to suit.

VERDICT: A cracking international matchup between Sepoy, ROCKET MAN, & THE FACTOR, with preference for the latter two names mentioned despite the awesome winning streak that Peter Snowden’s 3yo carried throughought last season. There seem to be suggestions that Rocket Man isn’t the horse that he was last season but he had excuses for both his high profile defeats last season and from stall 1, he should take the catching if actually on form. If the general suggestion is actually true though, then The Factor seems well placed to take advantage if he can get to the lead. That’s easier said than done but the last two times he’s gotten an easy lead he’s won with ease and he looks a good place option, with Lucky Nine on the outside of 12 and Force Freeze coming off a longer break than one would like for this event. Krypton Factor looks best of the rest.