Royal Ascot 2012 - St James's Palace Stakes

3.45 Royal Ascot (Day 1, Race 3) 

St James's Palace Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Rnd) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £167,294

Advice: 2 pts win Power (4/1 Bet365, Sportingbet) & 1 pt each/way Born To Sea & Hermival (10/1 general) *

*Power is my strongest choice, but the excuse given on account of the ground for his poor Guineas run must be taken into consideration, and it would be advisable to wait and see how well the first two races play out before backing him at what seems, for all the attacking his price has gotten, a respectable and more than fair 7/2 - At the time of writing, he's now 4/1 in places and the ground is also being described as "good" by jockeys, so he gets the vote

Arnold Lane: Beaten in three good races since winning on 2yo debut, running into good horses each time, but well beaten on step up to Group 1 level in Middle Park; Step upto a mile and soft ground seemed to bring the best out of him last time out when winning Chester handicap and that form franked big style by Gabrial winning Betfair Bowl (he may have drifted but he was getting 4lbs); Still expected to be well beaten this time around.

Born To Sea: Illustriously bred (half-brother to Sea The Stars out of Urban Sea); Made a smooth winning start in Listed company at the Curragh before being turned over by Ballydoyle’s Nephrite in the Killavullan Stakes after travelling very well, although he was found to be lame afterwards (with possible knee problems); Disappointed on reappearance in Guineas when far too keen, but better in Irish Guineas when staying on fifth late on; Ridden just to settle that day and may tactics may well have worked too well, as he was last 2 furlongs from home; Sure to be further forward today and with soft ground (won on yielding to soft on debut) not as big a problem for him as it would be for some of the others, he makes appeal.

Cogito: Impressive on debut in good maiden at Newmarket and once again took the eye when landing strong renewal of Heron Stakes (second had run out easy winner of Listed event earlier on and third was highly liked beforehand); Has to be respected although untried on easy ground.

Dragon Pulse: Solid last year for Jessie Harrington, beating Dewhurst winner Parish Hall in good style before game second to Power in National Stakes; Back in style when making every yard count to nail Dabirsim in Prix De Fontainebleau and while he disappointed in French Guineas, he was caught out wide (failed to settle, poor draw) in strange race (3 & ½ lengths separated the field while he was closing with every stride, albeit to little effect); Respected.

Fencing: Sixth in the 2,000 Guineas after a poor preparation (pricked foot), and followed that up with good third in Dante Stakes; Good reason to think that one time we’ve seen him over a mile he wasn’t at his best and ground with cut shouldn’t be a major problem for him, so has to be respected here.

Foxtrot Romeo: Looked like a useful horse when winning on debut at Hamilton and then running fourth in Conditions Stakes/Group 3 but made mother of all comebacks with massive second to Power in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time (some suggested that he could have won had Niall McCullagh not moved off the rail)

Gabrial: Didn’t get the best of luck on return/handicap debut when eight (poor run and fitness told in late stages when unplaced in valuable mile handicap on return but better when second to Arnold Lane (drifted across track) and then when winning Betfred Silver Bowl at Haydock last time; Clearly a useful horse and improving all the time and notable that he’s been supplemented by confident connections, although he has a lot on his plate at this level.

Gregorian: Shaped like a future handicap winner for sure when winning Doncaster maiden on 3^rd start and confirmed he has future when winning handicap there off 88; Close up fifth in French Guineas being used by many to weigh down the form of said race and went horribly wide around the home turn (a worry around here) when unplaced in French Derby; Others preferred.

Hermival: Game winner over 1m at Saint Cloud on debut and then followed that up with excellent staying on third in Prix Dejebel, a hugely creditable second effort; Just as good in 2,000 Guineas when third (well ahead of Fencing), finishing well clear on his own side; Disappointed in Irish Guineas but ground may have been too fast for him (reported to have returned to France "sore") and Guineas form here would give him big chance; Interesting from good draw in stall 2.

Lucayan: Rapid improver with racing, winning Listed event after placing in another before then winning Prix De Poualins in desperate drive towards the line; That looked to be a messy race with only 3 lengths separating him and ninth placed Dragon Pulse despite strong pace on quick ground; Would handle cut in ground and hard to take his win away from him in any way, although he’s drawn horribly in 14.

Miblish: Game winner at Newbury last September but well beaten in sales race since and promising second behind Eastern Sun on comeback, but miles behind in Craven and hard to fancy.

Most Improved: Lived up to his name after being run out of things on debut when romping away with Newmarket maiden after close 3^rd on debut, and proved merit of that when chasing home talented pair of Irish colts in Power and Parish Hall in Dewhurst; Became very much a talking horse over the winter but lameness saw him miss Craven Stakes and then again 2,000 Guineas, which saw comeback delayed until French Derby; Never got chance to show what he was worth then and better to come now with ground not a problem, although behind Power on that form and drawn very badly in 15 if field stays full.

 Power: One of the top 2 year olds of last season, losing just twice in 6 races, with both being unlucky defeats from one angle, having gone for home some way out in the Phenoix Stakes (led most of the way with two others) before being collared late on the line, while a falsely run Dewhurst combined with traffic problems saw him finish an unlucky second to Parish Hall;

Saigon: Upset 4-9 chance (with pair well clear in the closing stages) after sluggish start and even better when overhauling good types at Newbury in style of a progressive sort; Not won since then but kept very good company; Well held in Heron, 2,000 Guineas and then behind The Nile inbetween so hard to fancy.

The Nile: Third behind Tales Of Grimm (himself a strong running third in the Heron Stakes behind Cogito) on Newbury debut but deeply impressive on return in AW maiden and promising in King Charles Stakes, racing keenly and wide outside when race properly developed into a sprinter; Ought to improve for a strongly run mile and choice of William Buick but lot of ground to make up.

Wrote: Rapidly progressive throughought last season, coming third behind Daddy Long Legs in the Royal Lodge before winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile turf with something to spare; Not lived upt the same standards this year, one paced in UAE Derby and then in Derrinstown Stud Derby trial; Used as pacemaker in Irish Guineas and looks like same role here.

VERDICT: A race with a very defined betting shape, and plenty of horses who can be given a strong chance. A full field of 16 – the biggest for many years – brings the draw into account in a big way. POWER deserves favouritism based on not only his Irish Guineas win but his 2 year old form and he probably hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves, but there’s a feeling that he really wants the ground fast after his win at the Curragh (the ground was given as an excuse for his Guineas disappointment despite the fact he has a Group 1 win on yielding to soft). I’m a massive fan of him (as regular readers will know) and he’s probably getting some money on him but the ground has to play a big part and I’d wait until late tonight/early tomorrow (and then watch the forecast) before having a bet on him, although the 3/1 on offer doesn’t seem too stingy given that he’s got most of the others held on form if running to his best. HERMIVAL was only sixth at the Curragh, but may have found the ground too fast that day (he came back sore) and with a plum draw in 2 and ease in the ground no problem, he looks lie each/way value at 10/1. BORN TO SEA was just a place ahead of Hermival in the Irish Guineas, but he was given an impossible amount of ground to make that up that day before flying home and with his pulling tendencies now restrained, he could run a massive race if getting over a poor draw in stall 11. That factor is enough to put me off Most Improved and Lucayan, both of whom would hardly be surprise winners although there are doubts about Lucayan’s form, with little separating him and Dragon Pulse on original form, with Mikael Dezangles’s runner far too keen on early. Foxtrot Romeo could conceivably improve past Power with the run behind his back, and it would be no surprise to see him win, so to see him at 16’s was a bit surprising.