The handicap market for the Premiership is one of the
hardest to work out, but offers big value for those whose views really don’t’
concur with bookmakers and given the variable range of prices on offer there’s
something for everyone. With most bookmakers giving a start of about 50 points
from top to bottom, what must be taken into account is the gaps between the
groupings of sides last year and the starts given this time around.
Last year United won by 11 points – and from Manchester City
to Liverpool there was the same margin, and then 13 points between West Brom
and the Relegation zone, giving three groupings for us to concentrate upon
properly.
None of the relegation candidates make any appeal, leaving
us with the mid table candidates to start with a close bunch of teams from
Newcastle to West Ham making potential appeal. West Ham were our original selection,
but with such tight grouping this essentially becomes a ‘without the big 6’ market,
hoping that the gap between eighth to Everton and beyond isn’t too big. Based
on last season’s evidence that won’t be the case – on the official RP Sport
handicap the only non-big 6 teams in the first 5 both got starts of 42 points. Bet
Victor give West Ham that start again but they’re only 6/1 so either back them getting
36 points with Skybet – going 51 from top to bottom – or each/way without the
big 6, a market I would still expect Everton to win given that no big names
have actually left so far.
One of the big 6 is going to do well in this market – with either
Tottenham or one of City and Chelsea making the most appeal. Spurs’s quotes
range from 20 points, although they’re too short at 8/1, and the 14 point start
they get at 16/1 with Bwin or the 12/1 on them getting 18 from Hills makes more
appeal. Given that we expect a better points total than most, the latter is just
a touch more tempting for us even with a little more risk involved.
Advice – Handicaps
1 pt each/way West Ham +36 (18/1 Skybet)
1 pt each/way Spurs +14 (16/1 Bwin)
Advice – Without the big 6
2 pts Everton (6/4 general)
1 pt each/way West Ham (14/1 general)
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