Germany are many people’s favourites for Euro 2012 following
their performance in taking 9 points from the Group of Death (along with some
nervy moments for Spain and the other side of the draw turning into a very
tight set of fixtures, such as Italy v England on Sunday to play whoever wins
this game) and victory against Greece is seen as nothing more than a mere formality,
with Joachim Loew’s men as short as 1/3 to be the second side to make the semi-finals
of the competition. And that looks
understandable with this being the easiest quarter final opponent – on paper –
with 12 places in the FIFA Rankings separating the two.
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| Lars Bender might not be playing tonight but he's an example of the threat Germany carry going forward |
Some have suggested that Germany are yet to hit top form,
but they’ve already beaten Holland, Denmark and now semi-finalists Portugal in
their three games, and have deserved to be the winners on all three occasions, which
takes their winning run (in competitive games) to 14 on the bounce, their
longest ever hot streak. While they’ve been caught on the back foot for quite
some time in all three games, the cool headed mentality developed over the past
3 years has helped see them home and they’ve made the most of whatever they’ve
created against tough outfits.
Things might not be all that simple. It won’t surprise many
of you to know that when it comes to major tournaments, knockout football –as one
would expect with the increased pressure and rise in quality of defenders as
well as a attackers, a theory that’s been put forward by most notably the
Racing Post’s Kevin Pullein – is much tighter than group stage football, and at
the European championships this is more evident than ever.
Five of the last nine European Championship quarter finals
have been draws in 90 minutes, with three of those coming at the last tournament.
The record of odds on shots at this level is also unappealing, with 5 of the 9
odds on shots at this stage failing to win in 90 minutes. A most notable fact
is also that 7 of the last 9 quarters have been 0-0 at the break, and there
might be where we find the value in this game. The 0-0 half time score is favourite
in that list at 11/5 with Coral, bet a better idea might be to double that up
with full time correct scores in favour of the favourites winning to nil.
Germany have been involved in games with 3 or more goals in
13 of their last 16 competitive games, while 9 of Greece’s last 12 have gone
under 2.5. With Greece likely to attempt to stay strong and solid at the back
to frustrate the favourites and look for an opportunity either on the break or
from a set piece, the game might not be the trashing that many expect for the
favourites on paper. Greece didn’t buckle
against Poland despite being a goal and a man down at half time and they held
out against Russia, showing that they can cause a shock if all goes right.
Having beaten Croatia to top spot in their qualifying, they’ve lost just 1 in
24 under Fernando Santos and let in just 5 goals on their way here. The worry
(and part of the basis out our bet) for the Greeks is their lack of potency in
attack. Some might be surprised to hear this given that they’ve scored in 21
games under Santos, but they’ve been comprehensively dominated by the teams
that they’ve played against (being lucky to score against the Cezchs, as they
did so only thanks to a goalkeeping error from Petr Cech) and are facing the
toughest rearguard they’ve taken on in the Germany defence. Mats Hummels and
Holger Badstuber have been good so far, while Manuel Neuer is a top class
keeper, and Sami Khedira is effective at doing the holding role that he’s played
so well at Real Madrid, so a 1 or 2-0 win after a goalless first half seems
much more likely than 9 and 14/1 respectively.
Advice
1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Germany 1-0
(9/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Germany 2-0
(14/1 Paddy Power)
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