Euro 2012 - England v Italy

All 3 of the European Championship quarter finals have been relatively one sided, with Spain, Germany and Portugal (who completely dominated their quarter final despite winning only 1-0) making a superb set of semi – finalists, but England v Italy looks set to be tightest game of the lot and it’s likely that the record audiences tuning into the BBC will all be biting their fingernails for a long, long time tonight.

England came into this tournament with expectations at their lowest ebb following the displacement of Fabio Capello as manager along with a whole host of injury problems, but new manager Roy Hodgson has done an excellent job with the limited time and resources he’d inherited from the previous reign, grabbing a good result against France before one goal wins v Sweden and Ukraine. For the optimists or hope seekers, there were various positives to come out of those games – England battled back from 2-1 down against Sweden and showed more going forward in that game than any of the 5 other internationals they’ve played under Hodgson – while they did keep France out despite being dominated for the latter half of the game.  Pessimists are sure to notice how many times that Sweden (2 goals from setpieces and 7 shots on targets) and Ukraine (57% of possession and unlucky not to score in their last group game despite being poor) got inbehind a side that’s been famed for their defensive style under Hodgson. 

Italy themselves have always been seen as the most defensive major side in World Football, but they were the most surprising and impressive side for many when holding Spain to a 1-1 draw and creating many of the chances in a well contested game, opening the eyes of many who felt that they hadn’t got much to offer going forward. Prandelli’s slick style of football - they once made more than 800 passes in an entire game during their qualifying – was once again evident when they drew 1-1 with Croatia, going ahead at the 39^th minute in a game that they should have been well clear at half time. Indeed, taking the chances that the likes of Andrea Pirlo – so deeply impressive throughought this tournament – have created has been a major problem for them, with only Mario Balotelli’s goal against Ireland taking them to a 2-0 win. That’s not to say that Italy lack anything going forward; They had the same amount of shots on target as Spain and more than Coratia and it’s fair to say that they should have scored more than once on both occasions, but the lack of goals does have to be considered a worry.

Another worry too for Prandelli has to be the fact they they’ve failed to see out a 90 minute game without letting in a goal for longer than is comfortable until holding out Ireland – who themselves where allowed more chances than comfortable. The injury to Giorgio Chellini is sure to make things even more uncomfortable at that end although they can count on Europe’s tightest defence courtesy of Juventus stoppers Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzgli.

England too are tight when they want to be – the fact that they’ve kept clean sheets in three of their last 5 games emphasizes this – but it’s hard to see them keeping out this Italy side based on their displays so far. With both sides having major strengths and weaknesses, the draw appeals as being the most likely outcome for this game. England have drawn eight of the 12 competitive fixtures since losing to Arengtina in 1986, while Italy have drawn 9 of their 17; A 1-1 draw also makes appeal, with England having scored in 21 of their last 22 internationals while Italy were held to a 1-1 draw twice in the Group stages.

And last but not least, the game to go to penalties at 4/1 also seems to be good value to have onside. England have been taken to penalties at Euro 2004 and at the World Cup 2 years later, while Italy have gone to the death 3 times since 2000.  

Advice

3 pts Draw (2/1 general)

1 pt 1-1 draw (11/2 Bet Victor)

1 pt game to go to penalties (4/1 Stan James, Paddy Power)