Friday, 1 June 2012

Epsom Oaks 2012

4.05 Epsom

Investec Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)
Winner £207,842 - 13 run


Advice:  1 pt each/way Shirocco Star (16/1 Bet365), 1 pt each/way Colima (22/1 Sportingbet) 


                                      
Owner detailsBettebetterbetter: Travelled notably well first time out considering time of year (runners from this stable do improve for their debuts) and probably didn’t have to build on that much to win Dundalk maiden; Sent off favourite for Cheshire Oaks (proven good trial for this in recent) and ran a perfectly respectable race to come second on ground that might not have suited, but form of that race taken two knocks since and didn’t find so much off the bridle when asked, so others preferred despite family showing improvement with racing.

Owner detailsColima: Taking winner of Nottingham maiden and hinted at even more promise when second to Vow in Lingfield Oaks trial, being held up out of her ground off what was a slow pace; Made eyecatching move to be clear second in the straight and should improve for the run; Taking same path as Look Here did in 2008 and respected, but Vow did beat her very easily despite hanging and that’s a concern.

Owner detailsCoquet: Made up into staying filly last season with wins at Wolves and Newmarket, and supplemented that progress when winning the Height Of Fashion Stakes, winning her race after leader (third in Lingfield Oaks Trial) shot her bolt very early; Gave 3lbs to runner up that day and should be a fitter horse now, but that form needs serious improvement.

Owner detailsDevotion: Well beaten in Listed and Group company last year and once again beaten on first start of this season but did shape as if she’d like a longer trip to aim at when second (fast closing; previously suffered interference/bad trip) in Irish 1,000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown; Likely that she’s a fair better than that but stable has better candidates.

Owner detailsKaliani: Made hard work of winning her one and only start at two in Yarmouth maiden but different horse when stepped up in trip at Newmarket for the Pretty Polly Stakes, romping away with what was an admittedly messy race late on; Ground different this time and this much harder but can’t dismiss out of hand

Owner detailsKissed: Half-sister to last year’s Derby winner Pour Moi; Won cosily on her debut at Navan as a 2yo but blew that out of water with Listed romp in Salsabil Stakes, barely coming off the bridle to win by eight and a half lengths; Form in behind not worked out but second got within a length of Princess Highway in Blue Wind Stakes so clearly high class and has to be respected if connections allow her to run (ground concerns).

Owner detailsMaybe: Undisputed champion filly of last year, stepping up in Grade on each of her 5 starts before winning Group 1 Moyglare Stakes impressively; Sent off rightful favourite for the 1,000 Guineas on that basis and while she was third, she was well beaten by runaway winner and stablemate Homecoming Queen, having travelled well before finding little for pressure; Ahead of major contented the Fugue that day but doesn’t promise to stay as well as that one and that result may have changed with different luck in running.

Owner detailsNayarra: Solid 2yo, although exposed last year and not upto Group 1 standard in the 1,000 Guineas, when well behind Maybe and The Fugue in ninth, and too slow in the Height Of Fashion when behind Coquet; Outclassed.

Owner detailsShirocco Star: Another middle distance name to announce herself on the fillies stage this year despite the fact that she was edged out of the Sweetenham Stud trial at Newbury last time out; Should come on for that (her first run of the season) and interesting at big price given how readily clear she drew of Guineas 3rd Starscope in that race.

Owner detailsThe Fugue: Impressive when travelling much the best in backend maiden before pulling well away from nicely bred Godolphin maiden in her own time; Since quickly made up into a Group class filly, coming a staying on fourth into the 1,000 Guineas (troubled passaged mid race), before fully underlining her Oaks credentials when slamming Twirl in the Musidora Stakes, travelling superbly before putting race to bed; All looks set for a massive run here. 

Owner detailsToptempo: Kept decent company on two starts last season, finishing fifth behind Lyric Of Light on debut before coming fourth in Listed company; Third behind decent looking newcomer on seasonal reappearance but probably not good enough in all likeliness.

Owner detailsTwirl: Deeply impressive winner of maiden (second time of asking) at Leopardstown last autumn; Probably improved on that with running on second to Crysanthemum in the Park Express Stakes (given quite a bit to do), but no match for The Fugue in the Musidora last time and hard to fancy here as that form shouldn’t be reversed.

Owner detailsVow: Unbeaten in two starts and could hardly have been any more taking in either of them, making up tons of ground on debut in testing ground at Newbury before winning Oaks trial with tons to spare, coming home three and ¾ lengths clear of Colima despite wandering around several times in straight; That hanging the main worry around a course such as Epsom, but must be respected

Owner detailsWas: Another blueblood (closely related to 2008 Derby winner New Approach and cost 1.2m gns) Really impressive on debut, coming home clear of stablemate with Coral Wave (since gone onto become a Group horse) back in fourth; Third in Blue Wind Stakes on her reappearance and should improve from that given stable’s tendency to have runners come on for debuts, while she had suffered a hold up at home; Not dismissed out of hand.

VERDICT: A quality looking renewal with nearly all the field having something more to offer on one or more counts. The winner could currently come from anyone of 10 and not be a complete surprise, but there seems to be no reason to desert THE FUGUE (backed antepost after the Guineas and before her Musidora win), who promises to be better over this trip if her York win over Twirl can be taken literally. It probably can’t given how Twirl and Aniseed took each-other on, but she still deserves a massive amount of respect on her 1,000 Guineas run. Maybe was just ahead of her that day, but those placings might well have been reversed if she hadn’t met interference and Aidan O’Brien’s charge doesn’t look like a sure fire stayer. The first two from the Lingfield Oaks Trial also deserve major respect, with Vow looking COLIMA'S superior although the fact that she hung both ways is a serious worry around here. At the prices the runner up is worth having to your portfolio, with the stronger pace surely a big help and the tactics likely to be reversed in a bid to emulate Look Here;s 33/1 success in the 2008 running of this race. Another two wide margin winners too can be thrown inton the mix, with Kaliani deserving plenty of respect as the type to be better for a strongly run 1m4f (daughter of Kazzia, who won this along with the 1,000 Guineas in 1999). With such an open race (and the withdrawal of our second choice Kissed), it might be best adding a couple of outsiders to the portfolio; SHIROCCO STAR makes most appeal of that bunch, with Starscope comfortably held in her Newbury trial and the step up to 1m4f sure to suit (got going too late at Newbury despite having travelled well into the contest) she looks worth having onside at a price that's steadied at around 16/1. 

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