A year and a half of so near yet so far for Wales finally
ended with their third 6 Nations Grand Slam in just eight years and the same
side will now feel confident that they can break the Australian and Southern
Hemisphere hoodoo which has dogged them for so long - they have not beaten a
Tri-Nations side away from home for 25 years and last beat the Wallabies on
Australian soil in 1969. Infact the last time Wales even upset one of the Tri Nations
at the World Cup was when beating New Zealand at the 1987 World Cup.
Statistics are there to be broken through and there’s no
questioning that this looks like one of the highest quality Wales outfits to take
the plane down under, with attacking and defensive quality in abundance and a
steely resolve that saw them gain wins on the road against Ireland and England
before seeing out what was a nervy win against France at the Millennium
Stadium. Some will also say that they’ve been given a good chance by some
problems in the Aussie camp. Quade
Cooper has failed to reach his match fitness for this game despite coming back
from the serious knee injury he suffered in the World Cup, while James Horwill
(so integral to Australia’s defensive qualities) won’t take part in any game of the series
after injuring his hamstring in a Super Rugby match just last weekend.
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Those who like to take club form as a precursor to
international achievements will point out that the Waratahs – who provide the front-row,
number eight, fly-half, centre and full-back- have lost 10 games, while David
Pocock and Nathan Sharp’s Force team have also lost 10 games. Those status an
often be made irrelevant though, and the forward quality that won them the Tri –
Nations is still there in abundance though, with Robbie Deans making a whole
host of changes from the side that got turned over by Scotland early in midweek.
Back comes Adam Ashley-Cooper at fullback, with his partner in crime Digby
Ioane likely to get a real chance at getting his hands on the ball in conditions
that even with rain forecasted. Berrick Barnes (seen above getting a much deserved try after an excellent performance against Wales in their World Cup playoff) was indecisive against Scotland
but still represents a real running threat and should be capable of improving
on that under better conditions, and the same can be said of Will Genia, who
was so impressive in the year leading upto the World Cup.
It’s not like the Welsh aren’t bringing their own superstars
to the party, with Caretaker Coach Rob Howley having all but four of the side
that started the Grand Slam decider against France. 6 Nations top pointscorer
Leigh Halfpenny starts at fullback and flanking him on the wings are two of the
most promising young wingers in the world, Alex Cuthbert and George North. Jamie
Roberts’s injury is a blow but Scott Williams and Jon Davies know eachother from
playing at Scarlets, while Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens, Bradley Davies and Luke
Charteris make a fearsome front and second-row, and they’ll be crucial in
stopping Australia playing, as Ireland did when beating them in the World Cup.
When the Wallabies won the 3rd place playoff and the Shane Williams
memorial, they were winning and open, free running game that Wales went well
down behind in late (Shane Williams and Leigh Halfpenny scored the last tries
of the game when the match was mathematically over), but don’t expect it to be
anything nearly as easy for them this time. With wet weather on the cards, and
the Welsh side likely to revert to the choke and hold tactics that saw them
stifle the opposition to such a point that only 3 tries were scored against
them in the 6 Nations, expect an extremely tight game, with Australia’s
backline having just enough to sneak over the line at home.
Advice
2 pts Australia to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Stan James)
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