Euro 2012 - The Final

Just one game stands between Spain and a place among the immortal footballing sides. The likes of Brazil’s 1958-62, 1970-73 and 1998-02 outfits; West Germany’s elite of 1970-76, Hungary’s 1950’s squad, Argentina’s 1980’s one man “hand of god led team”, Italy and Uruguay’s early giants. The reigning European Champions and World Cup winner have become just the fifth team in History (possibly sixth if you take the great Italy side of the 1930’s) to reach the final of three major tournaments, and they’re rated strong favourites to lift the trophy tomorrow. Standing in their way however, is the one team you wouldn’t want to be facing in a final according to not just stereotype, but history, in that most specialist of knockout teams, Italy. Vicente Del Bosque’s side have done things the hard way to get here and so have Cesare Prandelli’s Italy and it’s not hard to see nothing separating them at all, as both teams have pretty much been the same from their first game – a thoroughly entertaining draw – to now in terms of varying performance.

First things first, and in a tight game the biggest value may well be to back the opening time of the first goal to come between 51 and 60 minutes at 11/1. It’s been the case in 3 of the last four finals, but also seems to be a good bet based on the general half time trends surrounding Spain knockout games in general. We all know that Spain’s general style is to seek the ball, keep it between themselves, and stay patient in working out their openings in the absolute belief that their style (however boring some may find it) will eventually be enough to wear down the opposition and win their game regardless of the opposition or the situation. Italy themselves tend not to be opened early on in games – two of their games have been 0-0 at the break, while they’ve not trailed at any point and have sometimes flagged a little just after the half time interval in terms of performance, based on their strong showings before half time during the tournament at least.  It’s a situation that could well see the game starting slowly if Spain can exert the control of the ball they’ve had in previous matches, then it’s more than likely they’ll start growing into the game and get their first serious opportunities entering the beginning of the second half.

Del Boqsue’s men are 5/4 to win in 90 minutes and that’s sure to get its fair share of attention from the general football punting public but that makes no appeal. They’re undoubtedly the best side in the world on their day and deserve massive respect upon that basis but they’ve not impressed totally at this tournament and for all that they’ve not let in a goal in 9 knockout games at this level, they’ve shown more vulnerability now than ever during this tournament and have failed to win 2 of their 5 games in getting ere. Take into account the fact that one of those games was a complete rollover in Ireland (add France’s pathetic effort into that category) and then Croatia giving them big problems, not to mention Italy holding them to a 1-1 draw, and you can see why they might be opposable at least in normal time.

Italy have actually tracked a very similar patch towards Spain. After impressing many more than Spain during the 1-1 draw to open the tournament they then went onto dominate possession against Croatia and Ireland only to miss quite a few chances in games that they dominated, looking vulnerable only in patches. Their performance against England was even more impressive, with the only question over their win being why it didn’t come in 90 or 120 minutes. Much like Spain they’ve had more of the ball, been very hard to beat, and could possibly be accused of scoring less than they should have over the course of the tournament – although I don’t think it could be stretching things to say that they’ve been more entertaining than the Spanish throughought the tournament.

There’s also plenty of evidence to suggest that Italy can overturn Spain in 90 minutes though. Half of Iker Casillas’s 12 saves came against the Azzuri in the 1^st game despite Spain having 64% of possession, and there’s no questioning who was more impressive in the semis. Germany were widely expected to brush aside Italy but instead themselves were blown away by a superb performance from not just Andrea Pirlo and Mario Balotelli (below), but Ricardo Montolivo and especially Antonio Cassano  - crucial in giving Italy the early impetus needed to go on and beat Germany – where Italy attacked with vigour, panache and style from all areas, in a performance that could have seen them score 4 or 5 realistically, with Marchisio missing twice from close range and Di Natale missing a one on one. If they can reproduce the same kind of performance tonight, then there’s a very real chance that they can lift the trophy and the 14/5 on them winning in 90 minutes did tempt me (you can get 8’s on a 1-0 and 16’s on a 2-1) a lot initially after the semi-final win.

Finding a winner between the two is sure to be very hard though, and the draw at 9/4 makes the most appeal out of the three 90 minute outcomes given not just how resilient Spain have been but also Italy’s extraordinary record not just in finals and tournament football, while the same record that some say played such a big part against Germany is evident here, with Prandelli’s (himself unbeaten against La Furjia Roja) side unbeaten since 1920 excusing shootouts in competitive football against the Spanish.  There’s never been a 0-0 in the final of the Euros but this looks to be as close as we’ll get and the 6’s upon that happening looks to have some real mileage tonight of all nights if we have a damp squib, and 1-1 too is tempting – although there’s a general feeling that this game will be tighter than the opening encounter. With 4 of Spain’s 9 knockout games having worked out as 1-0 wins to Del Bosque’s side having been goalless at the break, a repeat at 11’s is too big with Boylesports at 11’s for my liking. And last but not least, Spain to win in extra time also makes appeal. The Spanish method of play traditionally works towards them scoring late, and it was notable how much extra threat the Spainsh carried during extra time against Portugal after disappointing in 90 minutes

The 0-0 half time draw seems to be a good took to have onside but it’s hard to get enthused about a price of just 5/4 for a correct score of any kind and there might be more mileage in backing he time of the first goal to be after 27 minutes with Stan James at 4/5 – only slightly shorter odds than the 0-0 halftime score and a slightly increased chance, which makes sense given that this would have paid out in 3 Italy games so far (inc their meeting against Spain) and that it also would have paid out for Spain against Croatia too. It relies upon a goal being scored but there’s never been a goalless European final in 14 attempts and having backed the 0-0, it makes sense to get onside.

Advice – Outright

3 pts 1st goal after 27 minutes (4/5 Stan James)

1 pt 1^st goal to come during 51-60 minutes (11/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Half Time Score Draw 0-0 - Full Time Score Spain 1-0 (11/1 Boylesports)

1 pt Spain to win in extra time (11/1 Bet365)

1 pt No goalscorer (6/1 Stan James)

Man Of The Match

Andres Iniesta - in a situation
that may be likely to repeat
itself on Sunday -has been Spain's outstanding plater so far this tournament 

In Euro 2008 there were 31 ‘Man of the Match’ awards and not one of the 31 was given to a player that was on the losing team in 90 minutes (or the team that failed to win the trophy during the tournament). 22 of the 31 were awarded to a player that had scored a goal, with 25 of the 31 awards given to players that played either in midfield or attack, while only 2 goalkeepers landed the ‘Man of the Match’ award with the remaining 4 going to defenders. This suggests that – much like the guide to winning player of the tournament – you need to be with a forward from the winning team to land the man of the match performance, especially in the final.

Spain’s Andres Iniesta (above) – one of the three players to win a MOTM without scoring this tournament -e has been named man of the match against Russia, Chile, Paraguay, Holland in the World Cup final, Italy and Croatia (much obliged to Sid Lowe of the Guardian for this) meaning that (from 17 appearances) he’s won the man of the match in over a third of the games he’s played. He’s had 13 shots on target in just 5 games, has been the best player for Spain so far, spends a large amount of time on the ball and has scored crucial goals throughought his career, including the e dramatic late semi-final equaliser from outside the area at Stamford Bridge that guided Barca past Chelsea and into the 2009 Champions League final in Rome, and the winner in the World Cup final (along ith numerous other . Take the 5/1 that he’s Man of the match once again.

Should Spain be turned over by Italy, then it’s obvious that Andrea Pirlo would be the man to get the award; With 3 to his name already he’s sure to be the man that everyone looks to and while he’s not the only outstanding player that Italy have – I have always rated Cassano as Italy’s most important attacking talent – he’s likely to be at the heart of everything the Azzuri do and with the likes of Montlivo, De Rossi and Marchisio all having been subbed in the name of security by Prandelli during the tournament (Casssano having sometimes failed to last out the full 90 minutes) then he becomes a strong favourite to land the award in an Italy win and the price of 5/1 is a good cover.

Advice – Man of the Match

3 pts Andres Iniesta (5/1 general)

1 pt Andrea Pirlo (5/1 general)