Thursday 30 June 2011

Today's Racing - 1st August 2011


It’s always nice to see how Royal Ascot form works out, especially the juvenile events, as many of this year’s events shaped like decent races beforehand and that’s been backed up so far from the form from a select few.

Jack Who's He - Can land Sandown Listed race
The Coventry is traditionally the best race of the lot so for Jack Who’s He (2.50) to finish eight having been unruly at the start (before entering stalls) and also having been snatched up before the business end, just when the race was getting started. His previous form (a convincing debut successes from a horse that has won since and reopposes) and another hard fought win when giving weight to Tell Dad gives him a very strong form claim and he can go close here. Kohala was pushed out wide in the Queen Mary and ran with tremendous credit, so should be respected here, while the same can be said of Bear Behind, who ran with credit also in the Windsor Castle (well ahead of The Penny Horse) and the booking of Ryan Moore is a big plus for him in what looks like a strong Bank Of New York Mellon Dragon Stakes.

Another really strong Listed event looks like the Gala Stakes (4.00) and a small chance is taken that Jet Away’s earlier promise will be shown over 10 furlongs if he settled better than he did when a well held second at Goodwood last time. He didn’t settle when an impressive winner on his seasonal debut but that was a 3 runner race and with so much quality today maybe he can get on an even keel early and that will help him relax. The form of his events is rock solid and he deserves another chance here. In a tight event, the main threat looks like Tazzez, for those who don’t know already, is an absolute star. A Cambridgeshire winner and two time Group 3 winner who also has a third in the Arlington Million to his name, he’ll be fit from his run in Duabi and can take the beating. Hamdan’s second string, Rasmy, is likely to need this too much having been off the track for 420 days and of the Godolphin 4, Vesuve doesn’t look good enough (4 & ½ lengths behind Tazzeez on their last meeting), Emirates Champion is yet to run in the UK since his improved UAE form, and Prince Siegfried also needs to improve. Class Is Class has a lot of talent but still doesn’t know how to transfer it to the track, while Forte Del Marmi has yet to make a mark in Group company, and Fallen Idol may well need the run.

And last but not least, still at Sandown, Crown Lighting is selected to win the Odgers Berndtson Handicap (4.35) with a step up in trip expected to help him, having been massively impressive when putting away subsequent sales race winner Dominant with more than something to spare on his seasonal debut before then going to Royal Ascot and running a more than respectable race when eighth in the Brittainia, having possibly found some really progressive types too quick and strong for him. He can go well in this field.

Going back to 2yos, at Bellewstown, Bahama Sprit can land the opener (5.50) and confirm the strength of the main in which John Oxx’s impressive recruit Rubina showed when dispatching of Foot Solider with ease (selection third) at Leopardstown last month, and the way this filly kept on suggested that a maiden is easy pickings.

And at Haydock, while many will be on Wolf Sprit (who comes from a stable in red hot form with their juveniles) who made a really nice debut behind Barolo Top (who had the benefit of previous experience) but his conqueror was behind Campanology at Royal Ascot, who made promising start at Doncaster before again shaping well in the Coventry, still green and caught wide before coming thirteenth. With the Hannon team in full flow, he can take this event (7.15).



Sandown

2.50 – 2 pts win Jack Who’s He

4.00 – 1 pt win Jet Away

4.25 – 1 pt win Chain Lightning

Bellewstown
5.50 – 2 pts win Bahama Sprit

Haydock

7.15 – 1 pt win Campanology 

Wednesday 29 June 2011

Today's Racing - 30th June 2011

The first port of call on a very strong day of racing is Haydock where a declious 5 runner field, 4 of them winners, turn up for the Bohle British Stallion Studs E.B.F Novice Stakes (3.00), 2 of them providing strong tests for the Royal Ascot form. The fact that Windsor Castle second Stonefield Flyer turns up means a guaranteed decent price about Silverheels, who looked group class when bolting up from a subsequent winner at Windsor despite having veered left after start (still green throughout). He was sent off favourite for the Norfolk Stakes on this evidence but had nearly all his chances compromised when sent over to the stands side (where only 5 were) and he was eighth overall despite being a well beaten third of 5 in his group, on easing ground (which may not have suited). Paul Hanagan riding gives even more hope that he’ll be able to give 3lbs to the likely favourite, and a punt is taken on his potential allowing him to do so. The obvious danger, Stoneflield Flyer, gets 3lbs so will be the public choice most likely, having blitzed his rivals in an ordinary Newcastle auction maiden before coming a clear second at Royal Ascot. It should also be noted that after an odds on eclipse at Newcastle (backed life defeat was out of the questions; Didn’t get home) Electric Qatar runs again, while of the two unbeaten types, West Leake Diman is preffered given the yard’s record in this type of race (2-2 this season) over Ralphy Boy for the Nicholls Yard.


Moving onto Leopardstown, If anyone here is interested in watching come – from – behind horses (I’m speaking to the Zenyatta & Zarkava fans here) then a replay of Alzana’s (6.00) remarkable 2yo win is must watch material. Breaking poorly, she was upwards of 10 lengths behind on one of Ireland’s many idiosyncratic tracks at Listowel, and around the turn she had upwards of 5 lengths to make on the leader, but once balanced it’s one way traffic and she comes home with something to spare. That marks her down as Group class and a win is expected here, with the ever reliable Johnny Murtagh to help should things get hairy. The obvious threats are the inform Marvada and the capable, but now always placed Moonlight Garden, but this is a race I’d be disappointed to be beaten in.

The Golden Fleece Stakes (7.00) is fascinating for a number of reasons, not least the fact that the three main form contenders in the race are ridden by young up & coming jockeys. Jim Bolger is one of the best trainers ever for developing young talent and his Ronan Whelan might get the biggest win of his career by far with Whip Rule in this event. An early 2yo (he ran in the first race of the season) he was awarded race after being continuously hampered in a Curragh maiden on debutby none other than Tough As Nails, who has boosted the form no end since, before being unable to give 6lbs and a beating to two useful types at Naas. Sadly Choir has let the form down since then, but it’s fair to say he was a pretty useful sort to be given to Ryan Moore and the second has upheld the form since & he should go close.

Whip Rule - Can take the Golden Fleece Stakes
The main threat and most likely punter’s choice will be Tenth Star, who has shown abundant promise in his two starts to date. Something of a purists dream, being a Niarchos Owned Dansili colt who runs for the O’Brien team, he made an exciting debut when staying on late into fourth behind stablemate reply at the Curragh, before then having circumstances go against him when chasing home the Jim Bolger-trained Zip Top (who is now as short as 20’s for the Guineas) over C&D three weeks ago, getting trapped on the rails in a steadily-run maiden and allowing the winner first run. Joesph O’Brien was also 3lbs overweight on the day so a big show should be coming.


Snowflake Dancer, famous (in my eyes at least) for being the first winner from the crops of Dylan Thomas, seemed limited when fairly well held next time out (also under a penalty) before bumping into Railway Stakes winner Lillbourne Lad last time out and he too can go well, with Shukov looking outclassed and Roman General still having to reverse form with Tenth Star.

Over at Newbury, Ballylea (7.05) was in the process of shaping nicely when badly baulked on her debut and can put that behind her in what looks a fair event now that Richard Hannon’s juveniles have found their stride. A whole host of nice types mean’s she’ll be a price and is expected to go close.

And Hannon can double up in the 7.35 when his Retainer can keep his unbeaten record. An impressive winner on his Newmarket debut last April (a race which the yard are fond of for their better types) he returned with a workmanlike odds-on victory at Leicester in March (a poor field) but he was giving plenty of weight away on his first run back since injury and he shaped as if 7f here would be no problem, so gets the vote. Obviously the older horses in this race have more than enough in their locker to trouble Retainer but they’re horribly out of form so the pick is a confident once.

Advice

Haydock

3.00 – 1 pt win Silverheels

Leopardstown

6.00 - 2 pts win Alzana

7.00 – 1 pt win Whip Rule (11/4 Paddy Power)


Newbury

7.05 – 1 pt win Balleylea

7.35– 2 pts win Retainer 

Tuesday 28 June 2011

Today's Racing - 29th June 2011


An average day yesterday, saved by the easy winner of the maiden. Hope all who read with Sporting Bet actually got on that and swerved Intiqaal and today I'm more than hopeful one of the two will score so here goes. 


This page has already said that is a big fan of Johnny Murtagh & he may well be the man to get Bible Black home in the opening maiden on a strong Fairyhouse card (6.00). In a maiden where none of the newcomers look overly menacing, he’s got the strongest form claims.  He veered right before meeting all sorts of trouble in running when fifth on debut and tried to correct that when attempting to make all last time, before being taken on for the lead and passed by a useful filly who was a good second next time (finished over a length clear of subsequent Group 3 and Listed third Naseem Sea). If she handles turf and 6 furlongs, she should go close here.

The Brownstown Stakes (7.30) looks like one of the best renewals for a good while and it’s a quality race for the money, with about 5 horses capable of winning. Emulous is the favourite based on the strength of her form through Lolly For Dolly but that may be an overreaction given that the disappointments of some in the Windsor Forest and the fact that there was cut in the ground after rain, which Lolly loves (she has no wins with firm in the description) and a penalty here against some classy 3yo fillies will make things tricky.

The choice of 3yos is tempting but the drop back in trip (assuming there’s not too much rain, which would greatly suit one other named choice) will be a great help to Sharnberry (pictured), who made a bold bid in the French 1,000 Guineas but was passed late on, having failed to stay a mile properly. The form has worked out well and she won’t have to cope with the top fillies from that race, and the fact that she’s coming here speaks a lot for her chances.

If the rain arrives, you could do much worse than switch on History Note, who’s very unexposed having had only three runs in her career. A taking winner on debut & her only run at two, she didn’t get a good trip when third in the 1,000 Guineas trial and bettered that when sixth in the actual event on her last run, staying on late after getting outpaced. That does not bode well for her chances down in trip, but she should still do well and any rain is a plus.

Rose Bonheur is an improving filly who should go well, albeit one who shapes as if she’s best with a an easy lead, which she may not get here, and Claimoh Solais has great claims at her best but has had two hard races of late.  Agony & Ecstasy was a vastly improved horse on her seasonal debut when an AW Listed race winner but this is a serious step up in class and while she’s a big price, it’s hard to recommend her.

 Advice

6.00 Fairyhouse – 3 pts win Bible Black

7.30 Fairyhouse – 1 pt win Sharnberry (7/2 Paddy Power) 

Today's Racing - 28th June 2011


After a very solid start to the summer last week, the weekend did not go to plan at least, and yesterday was bloody Sunday from a punting sense of view. We should have had a winner of the Royaumont but for Soumillion going to sleep on Adventure Seeker and letting the favourite get a massive run on him, while Hamish McGongall won the pace battle for Inxile but was just a sitting duck for Invincible Ash. While the defeat was gut-wrenching, fair play to Gary Carroll for getting him there and it was a deserved win after Tough As Nails ran into one too good in the shape of Lillbourne Lad.  

Havign gone with Seville to win the Irish Derby (no each/way’s) and also to win a special Coolmore Derby (at 9/4) I felt that the day would be saved but sadly he got overhauled by Treasure Beach inside the last furlong, under a classic Colm O’Donoghue ride. Many will be quick to say that this isn’t the greatest of Derbies but it should be remembered for 3 thoroughly likeable colts, a well-deserved day in the sun for a Ballydoyle stalwart and certainly not for the “Eclipse” of Carlton House, who has been ousted as not good enough in top company. Many say a drop down in trip is the answer but there is so much talent packed there that winning a Group 1 would be near impossible and his Dante success means he’ll be anchored with a penalty in Group 2 company.

As for the winner, it’s going to be fascinating to see if they decide to shoot for the older horses with any one of the front 3, as there’s no way of judging the true worth of Pour Moi until one of the placed horses from Epsom takes on decent older horses – Given the strength in depth of the top division, it would have to be presumed that the 3yos have a struggle on their hands this season.

As for Seville, a middle distance pot sometime this year beckons, (where is more difficult to predict) and Memphis Tennessee looks like a bona – fide Ledger horse although he wouldn’t make anywhere near as much appeal as Nathaniel if he went, or For Fiorente should he go.

Moving onto some far less exciting proceedings (in the eyes of some) at Brighton, and going to the well bred Intiqaal in the 3.00. He’s left punters with a few burnt fingers recently and that’s an off-putting point but he’s has some valid excuses and it’s not like this is the fiercest handicap he’ll ever take part in – Of all his competitors only one has won last time out – and he can go well here, having proven too slow for 6f earlier on in the season, before then pulling too hard without a good run at Hayodck last time where the leader got an easy lead. It’s hoped that the penny drops here.

I was originally having a dilemma about whom to back for the 3.30  given that Polperro’s mark of 82 meant he would take some beating (with the table 4-9 with 3yos at the course) but his withrrawl leaves Misty Rules as a rather easy betting proposition, albeit one that should go very close. She got a bit edgy in the preliminaries latest but that can be forgiven based on her very promising debut (seasonal) when she was an excellent third at Newbury and a drop down in class should do the trick.

Advice

3.00 Brighton - 1 pt win Intiqaal (9/2 Skybet)

3.30 Brighton – 1 pt win Misty Isles (11/8 Paddy Power) 

Saturday 25 June 2011

Irish Derby 2011


3.50 Curragh
Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)
Winner €725,000

Pick: Seville (win)

Carlton House: Promising debut was blown out the of the water by demolition job in 1m maiden win at Newbury, marking him down as exciting prospect; Confirmed that impression when defying slowly run race and keen early start to come out well on top in Dante (also came through horses), cementing position as Derby favourite; Things didn’t quite go his way (previous injury scare on week) at Epsom, having been asked to make large amount of ground up from long way out, run flattening out in final furlong; Should go well with better trip here although would want quicker ground.

Dunboyne Express: Showed potential stardom when slamming Samuel Morse to win Anglesey buy wide margin, and forgiven Racing Post Trophy fifth having had an interrupted preparation (form worked out); Returned with smooth win for easy task at Leopardstown but failed to build on that promise when running into only poor fifth in Irish Guineas last time; Passed over.

Memphis Tennessee: Showed enough on his debut to suggest he could do well for himself and smashed into odds on before winning over 1m on the AW at Dundalk last November; Best of the rest behind Recital in Derrinstown Stud Derby trial on debut and had them all at it around Tattenham Corner before being reeled in; Can go well again although reversal of form unlikely.

Native Khan: Made deep impression when winning maiden and Solario Stakes in taking style, and bettered that form in defeat when fourth in Racing Post Trophy; Technically holds some of best form courtesy of his 2,000 Guineas third, an effort all the more notable given that he was one of few to be close to Frankel and not weaken; Didn’t look like a stayer in Derby, so interesting connections persevere here; Rain wouldn’t suit.

Notable Graduate: Porgressive colt who made it two wins from his first three starts this term when making all the running in a three-runner affair over a mile and a half at Gowran Park but then beaten at odds – on in Listed event latest; Says lot about him that he runs here but others hold stronger claims.


Roderic O’Connor: Took a major step forward with every run last season, culminating in Dewhurst second and Criterium International win (despite veering); Disappointed in 2,000 Guineas but chased too hard a pace and unfit, so clear that Irish 2,000 win was more accurate reflection of his ability (despite looking like a weak race); Well beaten in French Derby latest but didn’t stay the trip, having raced too close to a very fast gallop; Probably won’t stay again.

Seville: Shaped like a horse of major potential on first two runs and backed that up when run a blinder when chasing home Casamento in Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October (well ahead of Native Khan); One of those most unsuited by slowly run Dante Stakes at York, but still well beaten by Carlton House; Flop at Epsom but never handled the track for a second and better can be expected with different race today.

Treasure Beach: Progressed with each start last year and was unlucky not to complete hat-trick in nursery at Listowel; Bettered that form when respectable third in Royal Lodge (well behind winner but hampered badly in straight) and continued progression when winning Chester Vase first time out, beating Nathaniel by a head & career best when beating all but Pour Moi at Epsom; Can go well again and the one to beat.

VERDICT: A devilishly tricky race to sort out and the ground is another spanner in the works. Many will be with Carlton House and it’s hard not to see him going close after a brave and only slightly unlucky effort last time, but he’s no value and would want quicker ground in an ideal world. There’s still time for that to happen, but the suggestion is to keep the faith with SEVILLE, who was never in the Derby at Epsom but matches the profile of many winners and has the potential to be a Group 1 performer. Treasure Beach & Memphis Tennessee should again go well. 

Railway Stakes 2011


2.10 Curragh
Dubai Duty Free Railway Stakes (group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)
Winner €57,150

Pick: Choir (win)

Choir: Well bred colt (half-brother to useful Rising Force and dam half-sister to smart performers) & made a very taking debut when winning conditions event in clever style; Form of that has worked out since and trainer record (dominant in this race) and booking of Ryan Moore (3 winners for this stable at Royal Ascot) mean business.

French Emperor: Used debut as springboard for comfortable win in Leopardstown maiden next time, but put in place with some ease by Lillebourne Lad last time out and left out of calculations.

Lillbourne Lad: Backed off the boards on debut and same story again when stepped up into conditions company but unable to give weight to a more than useful horse and smashed Snowflake Dancer by 6 lengths in listed race at Naas on latest start; Sure to go well for in form team.

Tough As Nails: Winner of the first juvenile race of the season here but lost the race through greenness (form worked out); That nothing compared to his 7 – length destruction of subsequent winner at Tipperary & then pushed Coventry Stakes winner to a short head here latest (Queen Mary fourth back in third); Standout on form.

Vault: Eighth foal; half-brother to 7f winner Top Class; Looked useful prospect when beating Dragon Pulse in maiden here on debut and says a lot that he runs here, although he does look like the yard’s second string.

VERDICT: Tough As Nails is a mouth-watering betting proposition with the form he has in the book but the same could be said from a racing view of CHOIR, whose stable has 10 wins in this event since 1997 and will have a good line through the aforementioned horse through their winner. Lillbourne Lad is next best. 

Prix Du Malleret 2010


1.30 Saint Cloud
Abu Dhabi Prix Du Malleret Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO only)
Winner €85,500

Pick: Adventure Seeker (win)

Danedream: Consistent filly at 2, winning twice even though she was disqualified from taking Listed event before being swept aside in stronger events at Longchamp/Germany; Vastly improved this year, coming a valiant third in the Italian Derby, before sluicing up in the Oaks D'Italia at San Siro latest; Should not be disrespected for top jockey.

Shankardeh: Boasts a perfect two-from-two record and is stepping into pattern company for the first-time but is obviously well liked at home and deserved to take her chance; No soft ground form, which is a possible put off, but should go well all the same.

Campanillas: A cosy winner on debut but hasn’t quite proven upto pattern class the last twice, behind a number of these both in Longchamp listed event and also Prix Du Royaumont last time; More needed.

Testosterone: Bumped into good one on debut and sent off as short as evens for Longchamp listed event after hacking in in maiden company; One paced third in that but clear best of these based on her romp in Prix Royaumont, when ridden more positively; Form lines don’t look the strongest but 3 lengths in hand and must be respected.

Adventure Seeker: Won with more than plenty to spare on her debut and then third to Glorious Sight over 1m1f (form well represented); Well beaten when three lengths second behind Chantilly runner-up Galikova in the Prix Cleopatre last time out but best of rest and winner has proven herself to be high class filly; Bred to improve for the step up in trip and should go well here.

Avongrove: Had previously come out best of three of these in the Listed Prix de la Seine at Longchamp, when finishing second (two lengths and a head in front of Testosterone and Campanillas respectively) but failed to back that up when readily outpointed mid – race in Royaumont latest; Needs to find more.

Chegei Has: Still a maiden but not for lack of trying, bumping into Avongrove on debut and then bumping into smart but still relatively exposed filly; Best of rest when well beaten second behind Testosterone last time out and only just passed over.

Pagera: Six length winner on seasonal debut but come nowhere close to landing Group event since, looking like she wanted step up to 12f when third in Group 3, although well dispatched in Prix Saint Alary and of little interest here.

VERDICT: An interesting if not trappy little event. 4 of them are closely matched though two races, and of that quartet Testosterone is once again preferred to Avongrove and Campanillas, but ADVENTURE SEEKER has always promised more for a trip and holds already solid form claims. 

Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud 2011


2.45 Saint - Cloud
Grand Prix De Saint-cloud (group 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner €228,559

Pick: Sarafina (win)

Cirrus Des Aigles: Enjoyed usual consistent campaign in last year (won Group 2 at Longchamp) before then seeking Group 1  glory in Asia without success; Good reappearance when just behind Polytechnichen & again when just behind Planteur & Sarafina in Prix Ganay/ Goldikova in Foret; Beat useful filly with ease last time but no wins outside Longchamp since 2009.

Indian Days: Unable to make mark in pair of Group 1 events (albeit well – contested ones) after winning a Group 2 in Turkey last year but continued progression when landing Group 3 under penalty at Newbury, and better form when behind Dandino (carried penalty) in Jockey Club Stakes; Shrewdly placed here after finishing last in Coronation Cup but needs to find far more.

Silver Pond: Three from three last year, impressive winner of Prix Hocquart on last start; Made a highly promising comeback in the Group 3 Prix Exbury at Saint-Cloud and bounced back from poor showings to land Grand Prix De Chantilly, proving the benefit of a big weight concession and race fitness from the winner.

Zack Hall: Progressive at 3, landing a hat trick with listed success before finding step up to Group 2 company too much; fast-finishing second behind Ivory Land on his seasonal reappearance at Longchamp last month but needs miles more than that form and has a big task here.

Sarafina: Created deep impression on debut and made seamless transition to top level with a Group 1 double, winning the Prix Saint Alary and French Oaks with ease; Ran taking Arc trial when third in the Vermille but outdid herself to come third in big race when nearly brought down at home turn, back to one but last before running on again during the final furlong and a half; Back in same form this season, with creditable Ganay second followed up with easy win latest; Sets a high standard.

VERDICT: Almost impossible to see defeat for SARAFINA if she runs to form, predictable as it sounds. Next best is Cirrus Des Aigles followed by Silver Pond. 

Sapphire Stakes 2011


3.10 Curragh
Woodies D.i.y. Sapphire Stakes (group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner €37,500

Pick: Hamish McGongall (win)

Inxile: 6 years old but evergreen as a sprinter and enjoying best season yet, winning listed races at Naas and Cork (twice) to add to his Prix Du Gros Chene win and Group 2 third; The one to beat here although he’ll face stiff competition with a penalty & others attacking him for the lead.

Artic: Looked like an exciting prospect at 2 when winning at Bellewstown and Curragh, winning listed race by 5 lengths in latter start before he racked up hat trick in Tower Stakes; Not gone close to matching that form since (apart from when fifth in L’Abbaye) but gets fair crack of the whip for the first time in a while today and on preffered ground, he can go well.

Calm Bay: consistent and has shown himself to be in form this term, runner-up 3 times already this year; That said held by Inxile on current form and with completion for the lead, probably not good enough on this occasion.

Hamish McGonagall: Formerly useful/high-class handicapper who made jump into conditions/pattern company last season with useful efforts here; Shaped as well as ever on first could of starts but well held in 6f Group 2 & Temple; Holds far better chance on fast finishing fourth in Chantilly Group 2 latest, and weighted to reverse form with Inxile from last time out.

Invincible Ash: Would hold massive chance if literally repeating her fourth in the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai, and probably needed the run on her seasonal return; Should go well, although does have something to prove.

Move In Time: Useful as a 2yo over sprint trips and has been in at least the same form, if not better this year, placing in Listed events twice to add to his wide margin win in conditions event; Copes with ground, running well and bold show possible.

VERDICT: Inxile is sure to make a bold bid to land yet another Group race to his tally but his penalty might swing things the way of HAMISH MCGONAGALL, who is weighted to reverse placings from their last meeting. Artic, who lives for these conditions, and Invincible Ash, the only one of these runners to have raced off the pace, are likely to go well in a trappy event. 

Friday 24 June 2011

Pretty Polly Stakes 2011


3.35 Curragh
Stobart Ireland Pretty Polly Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner €120,000

Pick: Midday (win)

Aoife Alainn: Rapidly progressive for Italian connections when taking a hat – trick in Rome before adding to that tally in Italian Group 1 at the end of the season, dispatching of solid yardstick with ease; Impossible to know what to expect on first run for new yard.

Midday: Took her own performances to a new level when completing a hat-trick in Group 1s last summer (Nassau, Yorkshire Oaks, Prix Vermille) & would have made it four but for awful trip in Breeders Cup F&M Turf; Ran as well as ever when taking Middleton Stakes from progressive performer and reeled in by top class colt on comeback trail in Coronation Cup last season, having been clear at 2f pole; One to beat.

Obama Rule: Sprung a shock when running out a ready winner of Group 3 here last season but not upheld that form since and readily passed over.

Snow Fairy: Improved out of all recognition last season for step up to middle distances. Completing Oaks double in empathic style here before valiant second to Midday (btn 3 lengths) in Yorkshire Oaks; didn’t stay too well in St Ledger but completed remarkable Hong Kong double at backend of last season, beating top class fields on both occasions; Should go close but may need the run.

Crysanthemum: Immense potential as a juvenile, both in pattern company when comfortably winning Listed race on debut and good attitude to gain Group 3 win over 7 furlongs here; Would have needed the run in Irish 1,000 Guineas but this still calls for a lot more.

Claiomh Solais: Steady improver this year, finding it difficult to break her maiden (did so at fourth time of asking) but running career best when fourth in Irish 1,000 Guineas (held by Misty For Me on that form); Unable to lead them a merry dance in the Coronation Stakes.

Empowering: Made steady progression thoughought last year and kept on from where she left off when making all to land 1,000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown; Not able to repeat trick when tested more fiercely in 1,000 Guineas itself and outclassed here.

Misty For Me: Hugely progressive juvenile, reversing form with Laughing Lashes to grab all the way win in Moyglare before outbattling Helleborine to win Marcel Boussac; Well beaten on comeback in Guineas but clearly needed the run and back to her true form in Irish 1,000 Guineas, picking up Together as they went further and looking as if she’d improve for trip so little disappointing off slow pace in Oaks (not stay); Can do better down in trip even though she’s faced with more difficult task today.

VERDICT: It’s great to see the return of 4 time Group 1 winner Snow Fairy and the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Misty For Me to set up a real cracker, but both will find it hard to live with the superb MIDDAY, who has looked as good as ever this season.

Grangecon Stud Stakes 2011


3.00 Curragh
Grangecon Stud Stakes (Registered As The Balanchine Stakes) (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1)  (2YO only)
Winner €34,125

Pick: Experience (win)

Aaraas: Raw on debut and never really quite going the pace to get involved in really good maiden; Just got up in average event latest and hinted there that a step up in trip would be in order so others preferred.

Dam Beautiful: Showed a nice turn of foot to score at Warwick on her debut and although that form needs improving on, her stable has a strong and deep squad of juveniles so fact that she comes here serves as a big sign; Can go well.

Experience: Showed lots of potential on debut when leaving herself with too much ground to make up behind Somasch (would have won in another stride) and didn’t need to improve on that when bloodless winner last time out, again taking time to get organized; One of main form contenders and should go close.

Muckle Bahoochie: Was behind three of these on debut but clearly needed it and had sore shins afterwards; Much more forward on second start, when readily beating Danziger by 2l but unable to make mark in Listed company.

Naseem Sea: Has run well on all starts and bumped into smart horses who should turn out to be decent the last twice, form which gives him a big shout;

Somasch: Only just got there by a head and would have been passed by runner up afterwards but that doesn’t tell the whole story, having been put out wide thanks to draw and having to fight hard to lead; Taken off her feet in Queen Mary Stakes but step up in trip should help and rates a real contender here.

VERDICT: Coming from a team that has had so much success in England, Dam Beautiful is obviously well rated here but this could lie between Somasch and EXPERIENCE with the latter just getting a tight vote. 

Curragh Cup 2011

4.10 Curragh

At The Races Curragh Cup (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner €37,500

Pick: Nebula Storm (win)

Address Unknown: Has shown large amounts of talent, his career best having been a second to Midas Touch in the Derrinstown Stud Trial; Safe to say he hasn’t run to that form since, but he’s got to be of interest here having run well since, looking like a class act on her seasonal return.

Admiral Barry: Went forward at a rate of knots last season with big wins in Galway (78) and Curragh (90) handicaps and ran a very respectable race when fifth in the Chester Cup; Has been exposed since however and vulnerable here.

Nebula Storm: Nebula Storm: Rightly unexposed horse (Presumably hard to train with just 4 runs behind him) and career best by some way when all but catching Fame & Glory on his reappearance; Harder to explain poor run last time out but holds heavy ground form and trainer/jockey combination respected here. 

Red Cadeux: Always there or thereabouts when in big handicaps last season, although never winning for variety of reasons; Finally had things fall right for him when running out ready enough winner of Listed handicap but once again unlucky latest; This harder though and others favoured.

Times Up: Resumed progression from last season (when ready winner of November Handicap) when winning big handicap and then when running out a ready winner of a Listed event latest; Looked an improved horse for the trip last time so should go well here.

Zerashan: Fairly successful as 3yo, winning once & placed twice and looked to have more to give when running out a ready winner of good handicap on reappearance but not backed that up since.

Pentersea Elie: Does have three wins but two of those in handicap s and none over more than 10 furlongs, so has to be a doubt about him today over this trip.

Admiral Of The Red: Well beaten on only 2yo start but vastly improved for the step up to middle distances when running out a ready winner of a maiden that has worked out at Leopardstown, looking as if he would stay with ease; Has to be of interest now he’ll be fitter for the run and can go well here, albeit in much tougher contests.

VERDICT: With the withdrawal of Times Up due to rainfall, NEBULA STORM, a heavy ground winner at 2, is forgiven his poor run last time in the hope he repeats his seasonal debut here. Address Unkown & Admiral Of The Red are the main threats. 

Chipchase Stakes 2011


2.00 Newcastle
totesport.com Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner £28,385

Pick: Regal Parade (win)

Doncaster Rover: Well behind Jimmy Styles when first run back from stint in Dubai, having been well beaten on both runs there; Well beaten in series of top races last season but more like it when fast closing third in Jury Stakes Latest; Enters calculations.

Eton Rifles: Only a length away from taking a Listed win last year and once again nosed out of it by Horseradish when attempting to gain big handicap success; Back in good form when fifth in Lincoln on seasonal debut, and while he’s in form, this drop in trip seems like an inconvenience.

Genki: Smart handicapper/group horse who held himself up with high credit, namely when third in Betfair Sprint Cup and also winning his group in Wokingham; Successful reappearance in Abernant Stakes was solid form for the level & big chance based on his run in Golden Jubilee, on ground no worse than today’s; Should go well.

Rain Delayed: Looked like he was on his best form when second to a highly regarded horse at Newbury and was catching Tangerine Trees at end of Palace House; Well beaten in Duke Of York and others preferred though.

Regal Parade: Confirmed himself top class in winning Maurice De Gheest and Hackwood last year, although bettered both those efforts when fourth in Prix De La Foret; Things didn’t work out for him on seasonal reappearance but back to best when beating all but Delegator in Duke Of York (slowly away); Slightly disappointing based on that when second to The Cheka last time, but winner go first run on him and return to this ground should see him at best; Major chance.

Secret Parade: Would holds a big chance on pick of his form (a third in the Bengough Stakes to Bewitched) but up against it on all other efforts and decant appeal as a Group class performer.

Waffle: Steadily progressive as a sprinter and best effort yet when beating all but Deacon Blues in the Wokingham last week, relishing the ground; Plenty of other form to his name that can see him go well here and has to be given a big chance.

Winker Watson: High class juvenile (winner of the Norfolk and July Stakes in 2007) & back from stud to run here; Impossible to know how much ability he retains and no real betting proposition having been off for so long.


VERDICT: A tightly contested renewal. The class in the race is REGAL PARADE and with the condtions he relishes, he can beat Waffle and Genki, both of whom have outstanding claims on Royal Ascot form.  

Empress Stakes 2011


2.15 Newmarket
totesport.com Empress Stakes (Fillies Listed) (Class 1)  (2YO only)
Winner £12,206

Pick: Lily’s Angel (each/way)

Act Your Shoe Size: Brought for 8,5000 Gns after winning a 5f Musselburgh Seller with fair bit to spare from subsequent winner (that in claimer) with a long gap to the rest; Hard to see that form being good enough & put in place at Newcastle just 2 days ago.

Hawfinch: Penny took time to drop but did the job more than well when running out a ready winner of AW maiden on debut;  Runner-up has since let down form but more to come and can surely improve from that.

Hidden Passion: Seemed amiss when pulled up on debut and relief to see her back when showing she had ability when second to Viola d'Amour at Haydock 9 days ago (effectively a debut); Yard demands respect for their record with these types even though this asks a lot more of her.

Lily’s Angel: Raced exclusively at 5f on first 4 career starts, going through first three races unbeaten before bumping into useful pair in hot Beverley event; Only fifth in Albany latest but that against some strong types and unsuited by the soft ground; Can go better here and Mosse a fascinating booking.

Misty Conquest: Improver with racing whose clear cut maiden win came here in far lower company & took advantage of easy lead/weight concession from subsequent Listed placed Caspar Nestcher latest; This again a rise in class but stable will know the order of their juvenile string. 

My Propeller: Underwent transformation for first run when destroying her maiden field by 17 lengths on the bridle last time out, barely coming out of a canter; Has to be favourite on that impression for all we will find out what she’s about today.

Nayarra: Bumped into Vocational first time out and again seemed to find a good one just better when turned over at 2/5 next time out but same story again latest and others preferred.

Pearl Diva: Handled with care when making late headway into third in fairly average looking maiden on face of things first time out (Leicester, was 11/4 fav); Second string for her stable and others far preferred.

Pendle Lady: Sprung a shock when making marked improvement for first effort when shock winner of what looked weak maiden at Pontefract and that confirmed when runner up well beaten in better race next time.

Queen’s Revenge: Defied appalling start/blatant unreadiness to win from good yardstick at Ripon and then got shafted by a poor draw (carried at start when favourite went really wide) when raing with no cover to be second in very strong race latest; Can do better here and Ryan Moore booking bodes very well.

Red Larkspur: One of quite a few who made significant improvement from their debuts when winning in clear cut style at Kempton last time; That quite a drop in class from this though and others preferred.

The Clan MacDonald: Created a good impression when winning at Hamilton (6f) earlier this month from a subsequent winner and demands respect; Yard has a good strike rate with juveniles and top jockey booked.

Weood: Can surely do better than her poor showing first time out at Haydock when toiling form some way out but this not the time for her.

Worthington: Won Carlisle maiden (good to soft) despite decisively despite meeting some mid-race trouble but didn’t run to that form when midfield at Royal Ascot; These not necessarily calmer waters and stable may have better candidates.

VERDICT: My Propeller made a terrific impression at Pontefract and would be the one to beat on that, although others hold stronger form claims and in what may be a hot race, the each/way suggestion is LILY’S ANGEL, who gets the vote ahead of Queen’s Revenge. 

Criterion Stakes 2011


3.20 Newmarket
John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)
Winner £28,385

Pick: Pausanias (each/way)

The Cheka: Had immense potential at end of 2009 and failed to fully realize that potential last year (ran below form on a number of occasions); Seems as good as ever based on this year’s form, when a winner of the Timeform Jury Stakes latest; Incurs a penalty for that though so hard to recommend strongly.

Awazaan: Was 4 – 4 as a 2 year old and maintained unbeaten record in good style when winning the Middle Park; has not lived up to that high promise over further since, although he still retains some ability; Didn’t get a good trip when third in Conditions event at York but poor effort latest.

Beacon Lodge: Only made it to track three times last season but performed admirably in good races & at best when winning C&D listed event with something to spare on return; Solid effort both times since and can go well.

Field Of Dream: Sprung a 33-1 shock when taking the King Charles II Stakes but not come at all close to matching the form since, a well beaten second behind Flambeau on her seasonal debut (4th in Italian Group 2 since) ; First -time blinkers an interesting move.

Inler: Gambled on and duly delivered on debut here when making all to win by four lengths here in October 2009; Not reached same form since but did get first win since last backend and excuses for showing in Jury Stakes (on better terms with winner) so has form claim.

Katakosi: Hit a hot streak last season when racking up 4-timer over 7f & proved well up to his mark of 103 when second to Beacon Lodge on seasonal comeback; Well beaten in second next time out and no better than eight latest, so safely held.

Palace Moon: Placed in top handicaps twice last season, third in Wokingham last year before runner-up in Bunbury Cup at Newmarket; Not reached same form since & readily outpointed on all starts since.

Redford: Showed massive improvement for big field handicaps when revitalised by David Nicholls in 2010, winning Ayr Gold Cup/ Challenge Cup at Ascot; Coming to the boil nicely this year, and can make good bid if in last season’s form.

Shakespearian: Tough reliable sort who won well on Godolphin debut at Epsom to start season but had been seemingly exposed since in better races; However, dangerous when allowed to go infront, and beat field rated much higher when allowed lead in Hungerford; Needs an easy lead to get caught.

Dever Dream: Won 6 of 6 starts last year, including a couple of listed contests at up to 7f (behind Seta on one start); Mullered at several points when getting no run on return and not dismissed lightly, for all that she must produce near career best.

Flambeau: Scorched clear of her field when making all and coming home unopposed in listed event on return but unable to repeat trick in Group 3 company, eventually coming home a well beaten second behind Perfect Tribute; Needs to do better here.

Libranno: Looked useful when winning what turned out to be an excellent maiden on the Newmarket July Course and went onto win July and Richmond Stakes, making all in gutsy fashion on both occasions; Just not hit same form since and passed over.

Pausanias: Made deep impression when winning at Glorious Goodwood on debut before showing determination to dead – heat with Coventry third on next start & got going too late when staying into second in the Autumn Stakes, giving impression soft ground didn’t help him; Impressive on reappearance in Free Handicap and while fairly well beaten in Listed contest latest, ground wasn’t in his favour (carried penalty) and form well represented since; Can go well.

VERDICT: Trappy and hard to know how they’ll bet. The best chance at the weights is Inler but more promise remains with PAUNASIAS, who has won all 3 starts at this trip. The Cheka, Redford and Beacon Lodge are most preferred. 

Fred Archer Stakes 2011


2.45 Newmarket
Try timeform.betfair.com On Your Smartphone Fred Archer Stakes (Listed) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £17,031

Pick: Cavalryman (win)

Afsare: Unlucky not to win on AW debut last season, but made up for that by going unbeaten for the rest of the year, including a hard fought win at Royal Ascot when he beat subsequent Group 2 winner Wigmore Hall (on two occasions); Showed nothing on seasonal comeback & again disappointing latest, so this last chance saloon although ground has come for him.

Allied Powers: Winner of 2 Group events last year (Grand Prix & Prix H’edouville) before creditable, although not particularly notable, Group 1 runs & steady improvement on all 3 starts this season to finish creditable Group 3 third latest; Should run a big race and has to be rated here.

Alwaary: Progressive in 2009, winning a listed race at Goodwood and coming a staying-on fourth in King George at Ascot but been hard to race since and can be expected to need this run greatly.

Anmar: Improved markedly to land valuable prize in Dubai Carnival last year but well below form on his two starts since & this a tricky task after 15 months off for a new stable.

Cavalryman: Enjoyed a progressive 2009, winning three times (including the Prix Niel and Grand Prix De Paris) before coming third Arc; Not reached that form since for Goldolphin but has run to a level of form that entitles him to have a big say.

Jukebox Jury: Made giant strides in 2009 when winning the Grand Prix De Deauville and the Preis Von Europa, before finishing a very close second in the Canadian International; Never quite reached that level last year and while he has form top win this, likely to come on for the run hugely.

Sabotage: Actually improved for switch to Godolphin in Dubai, improving when upped to 2m but has only mixed form since, his two runs in Dubai looking like poor races for the level; This trip a bit short for the level.

Verdant: Won three out of 6 last year in handicap company, unlucky on two other occasions before winning off top - weight at Goodwood; Looked the type to make up into a Group performer this season but has shown little on his two starts this year, looking awkward under pressure latest; Has a lot to prove now despite potential.

VERDICT: Trappy to say the least with many having a lot to prove or coming off a break. Jukebox Jury is the best of them but doesn’t seem to go well off a break so CAVALRYMAN, who still holds some ability, goes at the trip & should improve for his first outing.  Verdant & Asfare still have the potential to improve while Allied Powers might find one too good. 

Thursday 23 June 2011

Today's Racing - 24th June 2011

Well what a start that was to our summer with a winner in Parc De Lunay thanks to a great ride from Jamie Spencer and a notable coup for the notebook of 2yos when Citizens’ Choice came home infront at 16/1 on the first day of a very good Northumberland Plate meet. The most notable factor for those who are considering serious punting (especially on the Northumberland Plate, as the race run over that distance turned unto a real slog) and the ground is most definitely soft out there and it will stay that day.

The arguable highlight of day 2 (one of the strongest days’s racing at Newcastle for a good while) is the Hoppings Stakes (6.50 Newcastle) & it throws up a really interesting contender in Principal Role. Already a winner in this grade last summer, the 4-y-o made a reappearance full of promise when a close third against the boys at Goodwood recently and should find things easier taking on her own sex this evening, with only the ground as a possible worry.

Opera Gal deserves to land a good race, while Piano’s latest form (along with that of her trainer and jockey) entitles her to respect but the pick is useful enough filly who may be able to take another step forward tomorrow.

I’ve covered more sprint handicaps than ever this season and it’s no joke when I say that the Gosforth Park Cup (7.25) is one of the strongest and hardest races I’ve taken a look at this season, so I’m hoping that it’s a good sign that I’m more than hopeful of a bold bid from Racy despite having ignored the form of this year’s remarkable Epsom Dash for a few reasons.

The blanket finish in this year’s even means that all of those horses have run under a minute for sure, making their performances very noteworthy, notably that of Confessional  who ran a screamer to be second having dropped himself out a little early on. The cloud over the form is how it will translate over to the soft ground currently at Newcastle, and what it will be like in a different situation (although the pace should still be strong, testing ground brings stamina into play). The spanner in the works could be Perfect Blossom, who was in the firing line but was never close enough to land a proper blow (which she was last year) and would have needed the run badly.

Jamesway is a nice horse who has a good race in him but his run last time was certainly below his Epsom form and that would be a worry for me despite Hanagan again riding him. Ancient Cross’s weight isn’t offputting but the handicapper looks to have him where needed (a fact underlined by how strongly he travelled before finding little at York latest). The pace in the race will surely be Verinco, who has to be feared, but he could get taken on and in this ground that could be his undoing.

Of the Dandy Nicholls challenge, (always to be hugely respected having won this twice in the last 5 years) Cape Vale couldn't cling on to lead at Epsom since (and there are many to take him on here) while Silah may not be the most straightforward in the heat of battle.


As another festival hits it’s second day the Curragh kicks off some fine racing with the first day of the Irish Derby Festival & it’s typical that such a well-loved event should have a consistent horse as the pick. It’s hard to find anything bad about Famous Name (7.30), and he’s been as good as ever this year having landed a Listed race and a Group 3 - both over 1m at Leopardstown - on his first two starts this season. He may have been outclassed in the Tatts Gold Cup last time out but there are calmer waters and he’s well worth a good punt here. He has to give away 3lbs, so we should get a decent price for his standards.

Of the others, there has to be a doubt about just how much setting up the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Let’s not forget a race that was run more than a second under standard) took out of Jan Vermeer and his running here is questionable to say the least. Elusive Pimpernel would be massive at 9/2 if at his best but I can’t touch him after his rank bad run last time (with no explanation since*). Nothing else really makes that much appeal on the card.

There’s just one more bet for the day and it could be an outstanding one if form is to believed. Had she not been headed on debut Gamilati would be going for Group races and being expected to win, such is the quality of her maiden which has produced the Albany winner (Samitar, 3rd) the Chesham third (Self Centered, 5th) & a 17 length winner next time (My Propeller, 8th). She rates an abslolute banker with only the above average improvement of Proud Pearl from the Brian Meehan of any danger.

* Ed Dunlop has come out to say that bad ground contributed to the defeat of Elusive Pimpernel last time out.

Advice (to best price available if none below)

Newcastle

6.50 -1 pt win Principal Role (2/1 Ladbrokes)

7.25 - 1pt each/way Racy (15/2 William Hill)

Curragh

7.30 - 2 pts win Famous Name (8/11 Boylesports)

Newmarket (July)

6.30 – 4 pts win Gamilati 

Wednesday 22 June 2011

Today's Racing - 23rd June 2011


So often it’s a nightmare trying to work out form for 4 runner conditions races & the opener at Newcastle is a typical example but there’s one horse than comes along every so often and leaves a taking impression and that’s why I’m siding with Parc De Lunay to take the opener (2.10). A well backed favourite on debut from the useful Tom Tate yard, he travelled like a more than useful horse before lengthening out well despite hanging badly late on. The time was very good for the race (which hasn’t worked out) & he can take the beating here with Jamie Spencer having a good time of late.

There are obvious threats, the main one probably being Bartley on a weight basis given that he gets 3lbs having given away a ton of weight to the runner up in a Carlisle maiden auction last time, also Piece By Piece (a gutsy winner from a subsequent scorer latest) Kenny Powers, who was a promising debutant from a top stable for juveniles this season last time even if he didn’t quite look like a sure-fire winner in waiting when making good process into fourth last time.

The next doesn’t at all seem like a betting race but given that things fall her way there’s more than enough (given a bit of close attention in the betting) to recommend Citizens Charter’s (2.45) is worth a good look. Firstly, she’s a brother to the top class colt Commentator and also is a half-brother to Savvy Supreme, a 6f Listed winner in the US at 3. She would need to have the rain stay away but if the betting speaks, it should be noted despite the group 1 entries of the Tom Dascombe trained Electric Qatar & the booking of Jamie Spencer for the second string Captivity.

The horse that makes most appeal in the handicap ranks at Newcastle is Extraterrestrial for the inform and ever reliable Richard Fahey yard in what looks like a really good handicap for the money at 3.20. He got back to his best when taking advantage of a very lenient mark when winning with plenty in hand at Thirsk on penultimate start and he was far from disgraced in a really good quality Epsom handicap last time when Just in front of stable-mate Arabian Spirit (whom Hanagan again deserts, yet another positive. He goes on all ground and is well worth backing to beat a host of talented types.

Tipperary’s card will have future winners a plenty although it’s not easy to work out who (as it the game played with nearly all punting) but there are two that take the eye. Johnny Murtagh once again did this blog a favour when producing a masterclass to land the Windsor Castle on Frederick Engels & then the Wokingham on Deacon Blues and if anyone here wants to watch a masterclass at negotiating the wide draw then his last win on Adiynara (7.20) is textbook. Without hesitation Murtagh settles into a block free gap right on the outside for his mount and is always there from the outset, before then going at it four furlongs from home and having more than enough in hand to just hold on late. That may have boosted her confidence and given that she has a good record with ease in the ground, she has a fine chance at the weights and is sure to go well based on her recent win.

Being a sharp, flat, left handed track, Tipperary can be a rather advantageous track to be drawn low and in a race where any of 5 can be given a realistic chance (7.50), it’s very encouraging to see one of the most unexposed sorts (once raced) who already has some of the best form drawn as low as 4. Red Calima was given a lot of ground to make up on his debut to an impressive winner and next time out scorer (consistent type) at Leopardstown and given the improvement he should make, combined with an easier looking race and a good draw advantage, he rates a big shout here. Of the 2 Ballydoyle colts, Enchanted Forest is readily exposed and vulnerable to others, while Paint Your Wagon is badly drawn in 10 & didn’t quite look the type for blinkers to make huge improvement last time. A bad draw also puts me off the chances of Sonapour while Highly Efficient’s race has worked out really well and he looks the main danger.

Of the other races, only one really appeals and while I’d be backing Self Preservation to be reversing form with Perfect Goddess in the opener (5.50) but that’s a trappy contest and the ground might not suit the pick so that’s left.

Advice (To best morning price if no price given)

Newcastle

2.10 – 1 pt win Parc De Lunay

3.20 – 1 pt win Extraterrestrial (6/1 Paddy Power)

Tipperary

7.20 – 1 pt win Adinyara (9/4 Paddy Power)

7.50 -1 pt win Red Calima  

Monday 20 June 2011

Royal Ascot Review 2011 Day 2

Day 2 was the most forgettable of the week for me, if nothing but for the fact that all of my horses got beaten, but don’t let it take away from several eye-catchers, a brave young 2yo, and one of the finest rides ever given to a horse at the meeting.

The Jersey Stakes this year was a particularly good renewal that brought together form-lines involving everything from Classics to handicaps & Strong Suit  bounced back to his best after surgery to correct a breathing problem, explaining some rather lacklustre efforts including a well beaten miles – last – of –five in the Greenham on his seasonal debut. Benefitting from another astute ride from Richard Hughes, who always had him set to pass Utley and once he did the result was not in doubt.

This was some performance to hold off a bunch of decent colts under a hefty penalty and given how highly his connections rated him he’s more than worth a crack in Group 1 company as his forms as a 2yo has more than worked itself out and the Prix Jean Prat has to be high on the agenda given that the home team’s crop for the race (more on that below) looks dire.

Codemaster was second but more than confirmed the impression he made at Newmarket when running onto be a brave, if not relatively green second trying to make ground up on the winner. He ran like this is if he’s as good as he is and hung just a little from at least a furlong out.  Western Aristocrat, who wasn’t able to go the gallop early, was the major eyecatchers of the race for many although he was slightly faltered by his proximity to the winner at the line although he’ll be picking up Group races. Oracle’s a consistent but exposed horse while Splash Point had a penalty to deal with so could never get into it.

A knowledgeable tweeter that I’ve had many discussions with was quick to tell me that this was the worst French 3yo colt crop he’d seen for sometimes and it seems that he’s been proven right by the awful performances of those to race since the French Guineas. Havane Smoker might be forgiven this performance but still he was a major disappointment.

The Windsor Forest had a strong look to it although there was every chance that the race would prove trappy and that’s how it worked out. That said, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the performance of Lolly For Dolly, who looked like she’d be taking a hand in Group 1 races just a couple of seasons ago.

A tough and admirable filly, three of her 5 wins have the word soft in the description and the rain that had arrived played it’s part. Her connections have lined up a crack at the Marton Stakes and she’ll give the 3yos something to think about although it remains to be seen how she does on a quick surface.  The second, Chachamaidee, is now putting in career best after career best and ran a game race in her hood (which has worked wonders for her of late) while First City ran through beaten horses under a jockey who suited her perfectly and appeals as one to back at similar prices in big races with vulnerable market leaders for a place.

Sajahaa was the only one of the big three market leaders to run any sort of race, having led the centre group before merging. She travelled well enough but was always vulnerable and passed rather easily, leaving her progression in a little doubt. I’m A Dreamer ran well below her Newmarket form, while Music Show isn’t the filly at 4 she was at three, and Seta, who I fancied to run so well, just actually isn’t good enough at this level.

The Prince Of Wales’s Stakes might as well have been a one horse race with So You Think, the antipoedan import and greatest middle distance Australian of the last 3 decades, according to the media.

An easy winner against overmatched rivals on his first two starts, he came here a 4-11 shot for his first proper test in Europe. To emphasise the quality of the race he was facing a Prix Ganay winner (Planteur), a Sheema Classic winner (Rewilding), a 3 – Time Group 1 winner in Twice Over and a multiple Group winner in Sri Putra. If that wasn’t enough, the O’Brien team ran a Group 1 winner (Jan Vermeer) as a pacemaker.

Many’s first impression when So You Think was nailed on the line by Rewilding was initial shock, before the excuses went flying around. Many Australians were furious at the Coolmore team for having him “undercooked”& “ruining him”, spurred on by O’Brien’s admittal that he hadn’t had the horse at peak fitness.

Even given his excuses, this was a masterful performance by not only Rewilding but his jockey Frankie Dettori, who gave one of the finest rides seen in the race for years. Always behind early, Rewilding settled far better than So You Think and was one of the first to come off the bridle round the turn, behind but never too far behind So You Think that he couldn’t catch him. He (the horse) required an exceptional amount of rousting in the stretch but responded in exceptionally game fashion all the way up the stretch and got there in such time that even if So You Think had more to give, he had no time to respond.  Where ever he goes he will take some catching and the King George + Arc are more than suitable targets, although Ballydoyle have more than enough to throw at him.

Whatever people say, while So You Think is clearly a champion but also a beatable one, which is nothing to be ashamed of. All trainers, jockeys and horses will have off days and today was probably one for all of team Coolmore, not to mention the horse himself if O’Brien (who for all his hype is one of the most knowledgeable trainers of the modern era) is to be believed.

He raced very keenly early and took quite a while to settle which was no surprise given that the pacemaker got away from them, making it two separate races.  Yet despite this, they posted a time 1.27 secs faster than standard on ground which had been rain softened the previous day + night.

Despite getting beaten on the day, So You Think showed what he’s all about with an impressive burst from the field that had all but Rewilding beaten and he was infront a fair distance (at least a length and a quarter upwards nearly all the way up the straight) until caught by not only a horse that stayed the distance but a horse that was well and truly capable of running to a high 120’s figure (122+ RPR for his Sheema Classic win underrates him) and it was not a result to be ashamed of, with an inspired Dettori.

The fact that Sri Putra was 6 lengths back in third and well held gives the form and more than solid look (backed up by a blistering pace and time) while Planteur, a class act and track record holder for the Ganay, was also safely held. The latter was disappointing and it’s to be hoped he shows his true form although there’s nothing for him at all this year after this (seeing as 10f on quick ground is what he needs to show his true worth).

Many afterwards also slammed the use of the pacemaker. However racing differs all around the world in many ways & just because that’s the case it doesn’t mean it’s wrong. In the US, you can watch a claimer at Hollywood Park where there could be 3 or more horses doing the same thing that Jan Vermeer did and it’s just accepted. The same is true of the Preakness and other Triple Crown/Grade 1 races in America but nobody raises and eyebrow, and where was this outrage when Flash Dance ran in the Queen Anne and then took on Cape Blanco?

The Hunt Cup was the betting race of the week for many and it wasn’t the worst renewal for punters with Julienas backed at each/way prices and going off as short as 12/1, and the well backed favourite Dance & Dance getting a place. From my point of view it was a poor race for me with Start Right disappointing, although he was trapped out rather wide (just like at Epsom) of a large group of horses  and his run just petered out when it looked like he was going to be placed. Mont Agel got shafted by the draw.

The Queen Mary was one of the races of the week from a battling perspective. Shumoos was agonisingly close to winning but couldn’t get to Best Terms, in a race where it paid to be midfield, which explains the drab shows of Dozy & Somasch who could never go the pace, and On The Dark Side, who battled with Gypsy Robin for the lead.

Richard Hughes & the Hannon team suggested that the Lowther (now called the Cheveley Park Stakes) would be a good target although it’s to be hoped that the runner up or third don’t reoppose over trips that would suit them far better. She’s small and probably unlikely to stay 7f but is the youngest from the field so can hold her own at the level.  Shumoos has run with credit, although probably got a little outpaced and had to concede the winner first run, although some will have been disappointed by the result given the regard in which she was held and while she should pick up a Group race on this evidence where is not easy to find out. The third Caledonia Lady is obviously going to make short work of a maiden and is a fascinating horse to watch for the rest of the season if not a limiter for the form in the eyes of some.  Fire Lily ran another creditable race when making plies of ground late on to be best at the finish and is another who should be picking up a Group race this year.


The Sandringham handicap will be remembered by many racing fans for the debut victory and near – defining moment for the Richard Kingscote / Tom Dascombe team after a very up – and – down last 12 months which tested their soon to be rewarded partnership with Michael Owen.

She never really got an easy trip, having been well behind early before being switched wide by a cool Richard Kingscote and eventually winning with quite a lot in hand. This meant a huge amount to one of racing’s fastest growing stable and the winner has options of stepping up into group class, having beaten a progressive sort with plenty in hand. The second Dubai Queen did well and has landed the black type that her pedigree demands – being a half sister to Dubawi – Although whether she’ll do any better than this is open to debate.

Winter’s Night (the only selection placed all day) ran another game race but the real eyecather was the returning to form Cape Dollar, who travelled much like her usual self and was making a move when blocked 2f out, and would have taken a big hand in the finish had she not been unfortunately blocked at that time. If her connections keep her in handicap company she’ll win a big race off what can only be a dropping mark.



HIGHLIGHT – On a day where there weren’t really too many for yours truly, it has to go to all involved in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. Epic battles like that make a meeting. 




LOWLIGHT – Purely from a personal viewpoint despite the brave race that So You Think ran in the feature his Eclipse (yes I do know how ironic that sounds now) was a major disappointment not only for those who backed him but for all who were watching overseas and it’s to be hoped he bounces back (if he could do such a thing) from this defeat, which would surely see him pass the 130 RPR mark this year. That aside, the disappointment of Seta wasn’t easy to handle, while Shumoos, even in brave defeat, might not have lived up to the reputation she had gained from her easy win. 

Saturday 18 June 2011

Royal Ascot Review 2011 Day 1


The meeting started with a bang as Canford Cliffs overwhelmed Goldikova to land the Queen Anne and confirm himself as the world’s best miler (we will get onto the merits of another performer later on).

Canford was typical Canford. Settled beautifully in the earlier stages off a cracking gallop provided by Cape Blanco and Flash Dance respectively, he eased into the picture at halfway and was following Goldikova like a spy. Hughes had to wait to deliver his challenge but that is his way; And Canford swept past Goldikova in the final furlong to notch his fourth Group 1 prize. Beating such a classy mare makes him the best miler in the world and it will be fascinating to see where he goes next, with connections feeling much more inclined to target overseas targets than usual, which makes him appeal as a banker for the Breeders Cup Mile if he turns up.

Many were quick to belittle and slam Oliver Peslier’s unprofessionalism after he weighed out 1lb overweight but weighed in 2lb overweight but it is in no doubt that Goldikova was beaten by more than the weight margin allowed and in any case there was no jockey that would have made 2lbs difference in the race.  Goldikova lost little in defeat & and is likely to race in France for much of the rest of the season, before going to the US in a bid to land a fourth Breeders’ Cup Mile and she should hold no fears of getting beaten unless Canford Cliffs decides to take her on again and should Canford swerve the BC Mile then it’s all roads to the winner’s enclosure again.

Of the others it was discouraging to see Cape Blanco so well beaten but this trip was all wrong for him and he had competition for the lead which ended his race before it began. Many will have lost the faith but he’s going to be an artificially big price when returned to a proper trip and there are all sorts of scenarios which could see him being a winner of a big race and he’s still worth waiting for. 

Cityscape seemed to make light of the fact that he’s a soft ground horse with an excellent run in third (seeming set to throw down a big challenge at some stage) and he’d be a fascinating runner in the Jacques Le Marois should he go, while Rio De La Plata has confirmed the impression he left on his better starts and should win Group 1’s again on the continent.

The King’s Stand didn’t have the clash that the Queen Anne did but it contained no less allure thanks to the presence of raiders from 7 countries. The fact that it had gone overseas seven times in the previous 11 seasons with the British sprinting division perceived to be in the doldrums makes the performance of Jim Crowley and Robert Cowell to bring Prohibit through to beat them all on the day.

He’s always shown talent and was given a very astute ride by Jim Crowley, who took advantage of the blistering gallop that several set and many tried to chase in vain to win cosily in the end, and while there are many who could reverse the form (such are sprinters) he should take a hand in every big race this season. This was to be the first of two unlucky efforts in a week for Star Witness, who lost the race when bumped at the start, while the real eyecatcher was Sweet Sanette. She blitzed Rose Blossom into the ground when  on the far side and had them all beaten until stamina told (Ascot has a hill at the end of the track) and would have won on a flatter track, so it’s a shame that she’s not going for the Nunthorpe, a race she’d have been a certainty for in my book.

Overdose, in finishing fourth, confirmed that he was probably at least nearly good as we all thought he was a couple of years ago and while he might not land a Group 1 he’s performed with credit and should land a stack of races if kept fit. Bridgetown was a huge disappointment but getting taken on for the lead took his chances out.

Even with the clashes of the big two in the Queen Anne and the truly International King’s Stand all eyes were truly on Frankel in the St James’s Palace & I don’t think that any of us beforehand were expecting the fallout from the race that we got, for all kinds of reasons.

The brilliant speed which had been Frankel’s trademark since his second run at Doncaster had exactly the same event of putting the race to bed, but sadly for a number of reasons it did not leave the impression visually that many had been hoping for, first and foremost being that he kicked far too early to catch a pacemaker that was never going to present any threat. As it has been said before, Ascot is a stiff mile at the best of times and the straight there is a long and lonely place, so to be there 3 lengths infront at the turn and still be infront at the line is some performance (hindsight) and kicking that early made him very tired indeed, as it was clear to see at the end.

Secondly, a factor that new have put into consideration, the fact that his field was far better than that which he faced in the Guineas (not to mention the fact that the jockeys were far wiser anyway to his tactical speed) & also a far fitter field than the one he faced in the Guineas (I know that Dubawi Gold + Native Khan were racefit but many of his better form rivals were unprepared that day) and these three factors brought them closer together.

People were quick to point fingers at Tom Queally but he’ll have learnt from this and I speak nothing but the truth when I suggest that anyone else riding would be a major negative. The second, Zoffany ran a huge race and if the correct number turn up in the Sussex he’s an each/way bet to nothing and actually quite an exciting horse given that he’s got valid excuses for his defeats (soft ground and a poor passage/fitness).  Grand Prix Boss (warm beforehand) was a huge disappointment and it’s a shame not to hear anything from his connections afterwards. This is a let down in the form of Ofvere, who is probably capable of +130 performances this season.

The first positive result for followers of the Vic Page and myself came when Aidan O’Brien got off the scoresheet with Power, who justified favouritism in a nip-and-tuck driving finish after getting involved in a late barging-match with runner-up Roman Soldier but had the beneficiary of another barnstorming Ryan Moore ride to get up.

Rousted from the stalls, he was actually quite prominent early and while he was never on the bridle he engaged overdrive a long way from home and actually passed a lot of horses to get to the winner in taking style. Many will ask how much improvement there is to come but he should improve for a trip will get a mile at 3, has the physical advantage over his rivals (and may do for some time yet) and his trainer’s record with runners from this is quite brilliant, and certainly he should win a Group 1 this year.

Runner up Roman Soldier ran a huge race and came home in style. How he’ll progress is also an interesting quandary but he’s one of those horse who will land a Group 2 at a backable price while the same can be said of St Barths, who came from miles back. He’s an exciting Meehan 2yo and found trouble in running, although nothing like Lethal Force ( drawn horrible) and Gatepost (too far back, switched sides 2f out, passed about 15 horses and then had nothing left).

The Ascot Stakes was the Ascot Stakes, and Veiled got a good ride from Eddie Ahern in a race where it really paid to be prominent around the turn. She can win another race on the flat while Zigato clearly stayed the trip and will be winning again soon, and Junior was always struggling in a better race with a higher mark and no easy rope from the front.

I was on the scoresheet once again with Federick Engles in the last on Tuesday who looked a colt who was far better than Listed class in the Windsor Castle. He put two lengths between himself and a useful bunch of colts in the last furlong and wouldn’t be out of place in the July Stakes, a race that could be his for the taking if the Coventry principals give it a miss.

Stonefield Flyer( a 6l winner on last previous start) Caspar Netscher (an unlucky Listed fourth/ previous winner) and Gentlemans Code (easy winner from another easy winner) were all well tonked but all held very solid form through which the winner can be nicely rated and  Bear Behind back in fifth gives the form an even better look.


HIGHLIGHT – The epic battle royale between Goldi and Canford will be many’s highlight and while I’m not one to argue, Power and Federick Engles were also taking winners, with the former getting Day 1’s highlight.





LOWLIGHT – Bridgetown proving unable to deal with being hassled in the King’s Stand, and Star Witness never getting there in the same race.