The race for the Premiership’s golden boot is a very showcase for the best of the best, so as one would imagine, it’s a pretty special player that’s able to win it twice. Two of the finest strikers in the history of the Premiership, Thierry Henry and Didier Drogba have won it twice in the last decade, which is an indicator of the class needed to take the award, so when someone wins it two years in a row, scoring 56 goals in the process, it’s the sign of a pretty special marksman.
Robin Van Persie’s goalscoring form over the last three seasons has been phenomenal and he’s certainly deserving of being favourite, although whether he’s a great bet at that price isn’t such a cut and dry question. Van Persie has won the last two Golden Boots, but did so at double figure prices while also lasting the full season for the first time since he’s arrived in England (and leading the line fully), and while he may well do once again, there are several players with the potential to improve significantly and lay down a challenge at some very tasty prices.
Sergio Aguero is the clear next best and highly fancied at prices ranging from 6 – 9/1 and never got a chance after continuing hamstring troubles which took him out for three extended periods last season. Kun scored just 12 goals last season but when one considers that he had just 22 appearances last year then it wasn’t a half bad return and he can be expected to make a big challenge. However, the one small drawback is the fact that he plays in the most powerful and interchangeable strikeforce in England. Alongside him are proven goalscorer Edin Dzeko, alongside new additions Alvaro Negredo – who scored 25 goals last season – and the exciting Stefan Jovetic, who has 14 and 13 in his last two campaigns, all of whom could lead the line in any situation. With the Champions League also a major priority, it’s very likely that Maunel Pellegrini’s going to rotate at some point and while Aguero is more than capable of landing the golden boot, he’s not going to be the sole target of City’s service throughought the season and will have constant competition, which is enough to put us off at relatively short prices.
Wayne Rooney is the third favourite at 16/1 but that price makes no appeal for two main reasons. Firstly, the huge success of Van Persie means that he’s the undisputed number 1 at the club, with Rooney last year playing the role of creator with great aplomb, especially against the top 6 sides, ending last season with 10 assists and 12 league goals. Secondly, this summer has been one of constant unrest regarding Rooney’s position at the club, a contentious issue between him and the fans that grows with every passing season, and with United having rejected several offers from Chelsea already this summer, and there has to be a question of his general motivation after such upset.
No such questions surround Romelu Luaku (left) for us, who was a sensation for West Brom last year when finally taking the chance that he had been given by Chelsea to shine in England. Tipped for big things and compared to Didier Drogba, with whom he shared a very similar physical frame and attributes, after tearing up the Belgian League with Anderlecht, he scored 31 goals in two seasons and took the top goalscorer award before then moving in a high profile transfer to Chelsea, who gave him so little time that he reputedly didn’t lift the Champions League because ‘he didn’t feel like a winner’. However his first full season playing upfront for West Brom saw him smash 17 goals in just 20 starts, which gave him the highest rate of goals scored amongst anybody during the whole campaign.
A perfect forward for Mourinho’s attacking system, Lukaku is entitled to improve simply on given playing time, seeing as he only had 20 appearances last season, but in the Chelsea setup he arguably has the best midfield in the division to supply him with Juan Mata – who led the table for most assists last year – Oscar, and Eden Hazard all potentially supplying him while Ashley Cole and Bransilav Invanvoic too can get forward from either flank, with both possessing fine delivery skills which will appeal towards Lukaku’s heading and set piece abilities. Thierry Henry, Didier Drogba and Rudd Van Nistelrooy all won the award after their first full season in England, and with the best possibly yet still to come, he makes huge appeal for the golden boot at 25/1.
Speaking of top midfield service, few teams create more chances than Liverpool, which, along with his own talent, bought Luis Suarez into a clear second place last season and there’s no doubting he has the ability to go close for a side that should be now improving. However his early 6 game ban already means that he will get a best chance of 33 games this season – the same as last year – and the potential for him to get a suspension alone is a putoff, along with injury taking yet more chances from him.
In any case, the arrival of Daniel Sturridge in mid-season, seeking first team football, has proven to be a smash hit for Rodgers and with Coutinihio having bought new speak and vision to a midfield that has always been able to create opportunities, it’s no wonder that he was able to score 10 goals in 16 games for the Kop last season and with a full season infront of the new young talent coming through - expect Raheem Sterling to take a bigger and better hand amongst others – he too has to be given a fair chance and may be worth a wager at 20’s.
Christian Benteke may not get the same sort of service as the two players we’ve just suggested but he’s got a big future too and will need a big season if Villa are to avoid the relegation scrap they engulfed their season last year. We see no such problems for them this time around, but there’s only one man who’s going to be scoring the goals in bulk this time around and Benteke’s 19 goals last season would have bought a hefty return for an each/way bet. He’s much more well-known at a best price 18/1`this time around, but when one considers that 14 of his 19 games and most of his goals came in 2013 then it’s obvious he has potential to do better this time around. With Villa having recruited fairly aggressively to shore up the defence, the attacking traumata of Weimann, Agbonlahor, and Benteke is a settled one that should be able to steer themselves towards mid table safety.
If Gareth Bale stays at Tottenham, he would have to be of interest for all that he’s now supplying a top class forward in Roberto Solado following his much needed arrival from Valencia. That said, the 25/1 from Bet Victor is still something very much worth paying attention to.
If Arsenal don’t bring in Luis Suarez then Oliver Giroud will have to be worth considering given that he’s got potential to only improve on his 11 goal tally from last year and will get quality supply from all areas. At around 50/1 he could give a decent run for his money but the plain issue we have is the fact that he’s simply not in the class of some of the strikers mentioned here.
There’s usually a big priced, triple figure winner who takes a place - in 8 seasons since 2004-05 there has been at least a 40/1 short or bigger making one of the first four places, and on four occasions a triple figure shot. Everton are expected to go backwards without David Moyes but at this point in time have kept their key assets and bought in the promising striker Arouna Kone, who scored 11 goals for Wigan last year when they went down. Everton have failed for a striker to lead the line through a season over the last few years but boast as many creative sources as anyone outside the big 6 and may have someone capable of going close to 20 goals this year for those seeking value.
Advice
2.5 pts each/way Romelu Lukaku (25/1 general)
1 pt each/way Daniel Sturridge (20/1 general)
1 pt each/way Christian Benteke (18/1 general)
0.5 pt each/way Arouna Kone (100/1 Ladbrokes)
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