What has been described by some as the possible tournament
of a generation starts today with co – hosts Poland taking on Greece, such
famous shock winners of the tournament in 2004 when beating hosts Portugal in
the opener and once again in the final. The market has Poland pretty strong
favourite (a best price of 21/20 to win this game) but things could well be
much tighter than expected here, with both sides having their claims on paper.
The Poles have lost just once in their last dozen games (a
2-0 loss to Italy in November 2011), while Greece have suffered only one defeat
in 21 matches (a 3-1 friendly loss to Romania in November 2011) since coach
Fernando Santos took over from Otto Rehhagel two years ago. Clearly both should
be feeling fairly confident about their chances in what’s a tight group,
although there seems to be reason for thinking that Greece are too big at 7/2.
Arsenal goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny plus Borussia Dortmund
trio Robert Lewandowski, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Lukasz Piszczek are expected
to prove the main threats for a side which has probabaly improved a bit despite
being ranked 62nd in the FIFA Rankings (making them the lowest side
at the tournament), and it’s understandable that they’ve been made favourites,
although Greece’s qualifying campaign was an impressive one. Unbeaten in 10
qualifiers, Greece collected 24pts from a possible 30 top Group F ahead of
Croatia (a side that are respected by many), letting in just 5 goals throughought
the process (only France, Russia and Italy let in fewer goals throughought
qualifying, while only England and Spain allowed less than the 19 shots on
target that their opponents allowed them).
A clean sheet double led them to 4 points against Croatia
home and away while no other team came close to breaking them down, and the
same tactics here could prove very effective with the hosts possibly liable to
suffer from nerves if they’ve been held to a goalless draw at half time. It’s a
common factor to think that the desire not to lose will overwhelm the desire to
win in the opening game, but with the more forward orientated side Poland are
going to need to break down the Greek defence.
The counter attacking style that coach Franciszek Smuda had originally
wanted to play an attacking role but Poland when last seen had dropped into a
more cautious and counter attacking side with Lewandonski playing the role of
the lone striker. That can be changed, but as said before they’ll met stiff resistance
and the 21/20 on them winning the game is too short to make any real appeal.
The obvious bet seems to be under 2.5 goals, but at long odds on there’s no
point and the money seems best invested in backing Greece to avoid defeat at
5/6 with Stan James, and backing 1 & 2-0 wins for the visitors seems like a
value option, with 17/2 and 25/1 making more than enough appeal to cover the initial
bet.
Advice
2.5 pts Greece/Draw (5/6 Stan James)
1 pt 1-0 Greece (17/2 Paddy Power)
1 pt 2-0 Greece (25/1 Bet Victor)
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