Challenge Cup Final 2013

Jamie Heaslip has found his form just in time to
be called up for the Lions' tour to Australia 

Tonight’s Challenge Cup final, the kickstart of what could be a memorable summer of rugby, is dominated from a betting – and general opinion – point of view – that Leinster are near certainties for a fourth European trophy in just five seasons, and it’s hard to disagree despite the deeply impressive performances of Stade Francais in both their quarter and semi-finals on the road.

This season at Leinster will be the last of an era, with Joe Schmidt and Johnny Sexton both leaving at the end of the season, but barring a double header of defeats to Clermont this season has been very much identical to the previous ones. Early injuries, combined with the rapid improvement that Clermont made, saw them exit the Heineken Cup at the earliest stage, but since the turn of the year, they’ve ended their season in traditionally strong style. In 2013, they have 10 league victories to their name – scoring 183 points since the beginning of March – while also scoring 92 points in their quarter and semi-finals, overpowering Biarritz 44-16 at the same venue as tonight’s final.

Stade Francais need to win tonight to retain a Heineken Cup place next year due to their disappointing end towards the Top 14, being battered by the same Biarritz side Leinster saw off with ease here 52-16 on the final day of the season and ending up 10^th. On that form, a handicap of 11 points may well be generous, but Francais can be expected to put up a huge fight and were 7 point underdogs at both Bath and Perpginan. As admirable as their successes there were, Leinster area  different propostion and look the bet to win both halves tonight.

Advice 

3 pts Leinster to win Both Halves (8/11 Bet365) 


Already Advised (11th October 2013) 

6 pts Any Heineken Cup team to win (13/8 Betfred)

1 pt Stade Francais (8/1 Hills) 

England v New Zealand - Test Series preview

Many, including yours truly, saw England’s start to 2012 against New Zealand, as a mandatory three – or two test stroll to begin this most important year of years, considering the double header of Ashes series coming after this and the Champions Trophy in the summer. The reality couldn’t have been more different. Had the rain stayed away, then Andy Flower’s men – ranked second in the world at this discipline – would have lost two tests heavily, with the first defeat in no doubt when the deluge arrived, and Kane Williamson’s stoic resistance looked to have gotten the better of England’s tired attack in the second test.

 

England’s bowlers weren’t the force they could be back in New Zealand, but the main worry came as a result of their dire batting. Alistair Cook, normally such a solid and reliable captain, had a poor overall series by his own high standards, like so many of his colleagues, struggling especially with frustrating lapses in concentration and over eagerness, along with the cloudy conditions that they should have been so comfortable with given that close replication that it bought towards county cricket.

Their batsmen were very poor, but the much famed bowing attack which is known for being able to tear through top orders given the right conditions, failed to get a response from the pitch for a prolonged time in the in the series, leaving England constantly vulnerable. Stuart Broad, James Anderson and Steven Finn were all disappointing by their high standards, but a return to home grounds – which are likely to stay extremely responsive for the majority of the two tests – should see an improvement, while Broad’s recovery from a heel injury ahead of a return towards a pair of venues where he boasts excellent records (39 in 9 tests at Lords, and 15 in 3 at Headingley) bodes well.

Admittedly the same conditions will suit Tent Bolt, Neil Wagner and Tim Southee, but a return to home soil for England, who have won 12 of their last 19 tests at home in the last three years, should do the trick if betting is to be believed. That said, in the correct score market an 0-0 draw appeals a lot, as it may not take much rain to prevent a pair of results and neither of the 1-0 or 2-0 correct scores actually make much appeal given the improvements that England will need to make based on their previous form.

Broad himself makes appeal for the top wicket taking honours at 3/1 – he took 11 wickets for England in New Zealand when the bowlers were being well held, more than anyone else was able to do – and England make appeal for the first test at their homeground of Lord’s with the same conditions that had seen them become the number 1 test side in the world.

Advice – 1^st test

3 pts England (4/5 Stan James)

Advice – series

1 pt England 0-0 New Zealand (6/1 general)

1 pt Stuart Broad top wicket taker (3/1 general) 

Today's Racing - Dante and Middleton

We all have or ways of greeting the summer, and even if the Dante meeting hasn’t been as good as some would have hopes weather-wise, the racing steps up a gear today. Dalakla hasn’t been quite as good as her first three easy wins suggested, notably her impressive Group 3 success before her Prix De Diane fifth, but she showed her class once again in the Royalieu at Longchamp when winning a well contested sprint finish, beating Shirocco Star amongst others in a race that became a wind up late on, which is something that gives major reassurance in the makeup of today’s race, which is likely to be slowly run.

This is much less testing than anything she’s faced so far, and with the advantage of a recent run over Cubanita and Starscope, she looks to have a standout chance in today’s Middleton Stakes (2.15).

With Epsom fast approaching and Dawn Approach still a firm favourite, the Derby picture is now well developed, but the Dante has been the best 3yo trial of recent seasons and a closely matched, if not all that strong on recent achievements. The form pair of the race from this end are Secret Number, who was so impressive when making up ground four wide in one of the slowest races to be run at Meydan, making up 6 lengths in the straight, and Trading Leather, who didn’t enjoy soft ground in the Racing Post trophy but who has had his form in winning the Autumn Stakes boosted by the runner up and third this season. Both are tempting at 8 and 6/1 respectively, but the worry is that they’d be on their best on a properly fast racing surface, and while the ground is drying, it’s unlikely there’ll be much zip on the Knavesmire.

The huge sales race at Newmarket at the beginning of the season is a key form guide, with Windhoek fancied to hold form with Greatwood on account of his superior fitness now in comparison to where the two where then, and Ghuair on account of superior talent. None make standout appeal however, and favourite Indian Chief – who has been beaten only by Loch Garman (a Group 1 winner and second to Battle of Marengo) in two runs, and who won well upon a reappearance for which he promises to improve, has to be given a fair chance of completing a nap hand of trials for Ballydoyle. Whether he is capable of landing this and the showpiece remains to be seen, but there may be considerable mileage in 20/1 quotes should he win.

Advice

1 pt win Indian Chief, 2.45 York (3/1 general)

1 pt win Dalakala, 2.15 York (5/2 general)

1 pt each/way Indian Chief, Derby, (20/1 general) 

Giro d'Italia 2013 - Stage 12 (Longarone - Treviso)

Yesterday’s stage, rather predictably, didn’t bring around much action with the main favourites exhausted after the first mountaintop finish and Astana happy to coast along with Sky at the head of the Peloton. Sir Bradley Wiggins, now in fourth behind Rigoberto Uran, confirmed what most feared when unable to lvie with the best climbers on the Altopiano Del Montasio’s 20% slopes, and while he did well considering that he has been below par with a chest infection, (and he had also become quickly isolated following the blowout of Sergio Henao), his chances of taking even a podium look slim, for all that few had an answer to Team Sky’s oday’s stage however (a short, sharp burst at 11, with 34KM’s of flat after a Category 4 climb, should be fiercely contested, with only stage 21 guaranteed to end in a sprint finish on profile.

Happier days.

In a Giro low on sprint finishes, Mark Cavendish (our tip for the red jersey which now looks extremely threatened by Cadel Evans) has taken the two flat stages and should do so again today if positioned correctly – in deed he’s quite a tempting bet at 8/11. The men to follow him once again should be Elila Viviani – who used his climbing ability to steal points in the race for the red jersey two days ago –and Nacer Bouhanni, who was poorly positioned when there was last a sprint but has impressed a lot this year, and both look each/way value once again.

Advice

1 pt each/way Nacer Bouhanni (10/1 Bet Victor)

1 pt each/way Elia Viviani (7/1 Bwin)

Giro d'Italia 2013 - Stage 10 (Altopiano Del Montasio)

The first mountain stage in a Grand Tour is normally where the fireworks start but this year’s Giro D’Italia has been an edge of your seat thriller from the get go, and only now, 10 days in, do we have the first proper summit finish of the Giro, and it’s a belter of a stage in prospect.

The Altopianio Del Montasio (pictured with percentages) is a giant end towards this stage, but before that the Passo Cason Di Lanza will sort the wheat from the chaff. A bumpy climb with a technical descent that drops by 6% for a whole kilometre before 5 KM’s of climbing which never drops below 10%, with some parts reaching 16%. Then comes a fearsome drop – again technical – which lasts until the Altopiano Del Montasino.

The climb is listed to be some 20KM, but the first 10 are just false flats, although at 2.5% there’s a top chance for a strong pace to be set – here’s looking at you, Team Sky. Bradley Wiggins’s chances of another Grand Tour look fairly remote at this moment in time, but these are the kind of climbs his team is built around – even taking into account a less than regular gradient. Danny Pate, Kanstantsin Siutsou and Christian Knees are all capable of setting a very high pace, and with health permitting, Dario Catalado could set up Henao and Uran for some power pacing when the road kicks up, and while Sky haven’t been able to control the race so far, this is their terrain – they were dormant in France until La Planche Des Belles Fillies.

Before the race, we mentioned just how Nibali hadn’t gained any successful time on Wiggins in the Tour during the mountains, actually losing 27 seconds over the three weeks. Now Chris Froome was the man who did most of the damage there, but Sky have any number of riders capable of shutting down attacks, and putting even the best under immense pressure. It makes Wiggins a tempting 25/1 shot when some bookamkers have him at 11’s, but the giant descent after the Passo Cion may be his biggest obsctable mentally and physically, even though as we speak, it’s dry for the whole stage.

As we speak, the break’s advantage is coming down rapidly – it’s 4.10 with 56KM left to go – and it’s fair to assume that this will go to one of the main men in the peloton. A win for Vincenzo Nibali may well end the race in some people’s opinion, but there’s everything to say that he’s the best climber in the Peloton and with a team that has plenty of power behind it, he should be well capable of  putting the squeeze on, while it will take a frankly exceptional team performance to put him into difficultly. There’s 12’s generally on offer and that has to be worth a pop. One of the main outsiders mentioned for this race beforehand, Michele Scarponi’s time trial performance was almost as good as Nibali’s, and sitting just 1.24 off the lead, he will now feel that the podium is surely a realistic chance and today he can make a bold bid to start a serious challenge today, and he makes just slightly more appeal than Cadel Evans, who will be a marked man for sure in in the closing stages.

Advice

1 pt each/way Michele Scarponi (10/1 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Vincenzo Nibali (12/1 Coral, 10/1 general) 

Giro d'Italia 2013 - (ITT, Gabicce Mare to Saltara)

When, as he described it, ‘on the night before Sports Personality’ Bradley Wiggins described to target the Giro D’Italia for his 2013 season, it is likely that he didn’t envisage himself being some 90 seconds down upon his main rivals going into the long individual time trial of the Giro D’Italia, but horrendous rain – some of which is falling back on the starting ramp as this is written – on the descent to Pescara cost him badly yesterday and now leaves him on a recovery mission today.

Dave Brailsford assures us that Wiggins – who seemed to be hesitant to put pressure or stress on his left elbow yesterday, although he may just have been avoiding another fall at all costs - is not injured, and if he is able to come here in top shape, then today is an ideal opportunity for him to strike over a distance longer than either of the Tour de France time trials he both won last year.

With rain and wind on various parts of the course, and a finishing ramp of a kilometres that has switchbacks and averages of 11%, it’ll be a brutal test for anyone and there could be a few surprises, but if Wiggins is in peak form and able to stay upright then it should be a matter of how much time he takes. Based purely on his best form – we’re assuming this was his Tour De France ending form - Wiggins can realistically expect to take anything upto 90 seconds on the field, and anything upto 3 minutes on Vincenzo Nibali. Things won’t be quite that simple here because of the extremely technical nature of the course compared to the relatively simple run he had then, but as a winner of the Paris Nice mountain time trial against the clock, you would hope that he’d be fine, and as the Olympic TT Champion, pacing should be no problem. He needs to have a special ride today to  make up the time – it should be remembered that Nibali has gone to great lengths to improve his time trailing ability and will be suited by the climbs and descents, while the same can be said of Ryder Hesdjal except to a greater extent – but with any luck he should be able to do so and he still has a fighting chance.

In terms of any value today, Hesdjal made some appeal to beat Nibali but today is a day best sat watching – Ryder does look too big at 9/2 for the Magalia Rosa given his time trial prowess however and may be worth backing before the day’s end.