The age old debate over the strongest league in Europe has
been a long, and for some, tedious one, but anyone who can bring me a title
race with seven potential contenders can come and tell me that Serie A isn’t
the most competitive league in Europe.
It’s been a long time since that all Italian Champions
League final in 2000 – both England and Germany have repeated the feat since –
but after much scandal and finical ruin through the middle of the decade,
Italy’s top clubs, more than one of whom has invested in youth, now have a
progressive outlook with a solid long term future.
Chief amongst them is Juventus, looking to complete a
hat-trick of titles for the first time since 1935, and they’re without a doubt
the clear favourites and for good reason. The Old Lady was bought to her knees
by Bayern Munich in the Champions League and missed out on the Coppa Italia
final thanks to some profligate finishing, but were untouchable as far as Italy
were concerned, spending every weekend bar the first one in the lead, winning
by 9 points, a bigger margin than their unbeaten season the time before. Over
those two years, a defence of Cheillii, Barzafgil, and Bonucci has kept 40
clean sheets – ably assisted by Gianluigig Buffon – and the addition of Angelo
Ogbonna, who impressed so much in Serie B that he got an Italy senior callup,
is another bolstering of Europe’s rightest rearguard if he’s able to stay fit.
In midfield, while 34 year old Andrea Pirlo can’t keep going
forever, he still has an ability to control games that seems absurd and his
prodigy Paul Pogba has made his mark both at home and abroad in the Champions
League and for the impressive French midfield, and despite being just 20, he
now looks ready to take the lead on a regular basis. Autro Vidal is one of the
world’s outstanding box to box midfielders, able to drop deep to either pick up
possession or track men and shut down opposition, while also providing a big
attacking threat on the break; Claudio Marichisio may be reduced to a bench
spot after he returns from injury to explain the depth now in Conte’s ranks.
While much of their success has been based purely upon their
defence, Juventus’s transfer dealings have shown an ambition and endeavour to
transform their strikeplay and the arrival of Fernando Llorente and possibly
even more crucially, Carolos Tevez from Manchester City, are a huge improvement
on the options previously available.
Tevez was most destructive at Manchester City but still scored 17 goals
in all competitions for Mancini’s men last season and offers not only the
finishing touch that Juve can so often lack, but also be a focal point for the
attack to bring in onrushing midfielders from deep on the break, one of Conte’s
signature moves. With Tevez having seemingly endeavoured to lose the 6 kilos
that Juve demanded of him – he certainly looked fit in their 4-0 romp to the
Supercup – he can lead the line with aplomb. Whether that lineup includes
Fernando Llorente on a regular basis we still don’t know – the Bosman deal that
bought him here for free meant he spent a lot of the time he left at Atetilco
Madrid on the bench but a return to his 2011-12 form, when he scored 17 goals
in 32 league appearances, gives Juve two players who should be able to approach
something like 20 goals in the season, and good reason to think they can retain
their title. We avoided backing Juve and settled for the forecast options while
supporting Napoli, which paid off handsomely, but there is no reason to think
that they should be anything but outstanding favourites for a Scudetto treble.
However, with many clubs improving, that may not be as easy
as it was for them last season. Milan and Napoli are the two clubs generally mentioned as
threats – and they are – but a fast improving Firorentina side may be the
biggest threat. Just 10 minutes and 2 points away from Champions League
football, Montella’s men finish last season in a flash but went two goals and
two men down against Milan in a key game last season where Nenad Tomovic’s
perplexing sending off cost them dearly, and got held to a draw which ended up
being the difference between Europa and Champions League football. However the
foundations for further improvement have been made with some smashing summer
singings to add to the 16 new players that turned them from potential relegation
candidates last season into arguably Italy’s most progressive side.
Held up by a lack of options in attack – most likely a
significant reason behind the winless January drought that hampered them badly
– Fiorentina have taken action to ensure that will not be their downfall once
again by bringing in Mario Gomez for £16m from Bayern Munich and selling
Jovetic for double the amount at the end of the same month.
Gomez does not offer the linkup play and creative influence
that Jovetic does, but in a side where no-one scored more than 13 Serie A goals
last season, will bring a finishing point to one of the best midfields in
Italia. Gomez scored 75 goals in 115 league appearances for Munich and is a striker well capable of
scoring at least 20 in a season with a squad behind him of such quality and
making the golden boot challenge that Fiorentina have lacked.
From Malaga, Joaquin may be reaching his later years at 32
but brings a wealth of experience and the technical skill that is fast becoming
Montella’s trademark. Josep Ilicic’s inconsistency is his biggest downfall but
if he reaches his best form under Montella he can become an asset and Juan
Cudarado’s speed, trickery and creativity have now been sealed on a permanent
basis.
Adem Ljajić has bags of ablity and looks to finally be
controlling himself under Montella, as shown by his spearheading the club’s
rise to fourth with 11 goals and eight assists in 21 Serie A starts from both
number 9 and out wide. More maturity and experience could turn him into a
leading fixture in the side, possibly on a rotating basis.
This gives Montella a range of options behind the attack that
he can now use with far more versatility, but the biggest capture might have
been made in January with the signing of Guiseppi Rossi. The star of a
Villarreal side once known as one of the toughest trips in Europe – especially
during 2010-11 with eighteen league goals – serious injuries have badly
hampered his career but after the best part of 4 seasons without full fitness,
but despite this he’s
Able to play as the striker, Rossi’s adaptability – able to
be a deep-lying forward, winger, attacking midfielder, supporting striker and
on occasion, lone striker -
will be a crucial asset towards ensuring that Gomez has a
fruitful season and he brings the same standard of technical ability that
Fiorentina have shown through the last season and that has become a trademark
of the Montella’s side. The patience that Fiorentina have showed with Rossi
could pay back in spades based on his pre season form and fitness levels, which
have already looked close to total match fitness.
While the attacking part of the side has undergone a
complete transformation, the addition of Ambrosini from Milan is a nice touch
in midfield to put a seal on things and there are no obvious deficiencies on
the part of the Viola that should be a problem with an improved range of
threats, so back them to push Juventus closest, in the matchbets, and on the
handicap getting a start of +15 points from Juventus.
AC Milan looked as if they’d be out of the top 10 midway
through last season but Massimo Allegri pulled out a top drawer show of man
management and Mario Balotelli finally found the closest thing to a home since
he started playing football, allowing them to put together a late charge that
saw them grab third at the main expense of Fiorentina.
The departures of several key figures, along them Alessandro
Nesta, Antonio Cassano and Clarence Seedorf, but especially of Thiago Silva and
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, unsettled and rocked the team from an early stage both in a
snese of quality and quality, with a horrendous atmosphere blighting the first
half of their season with three losses in the first four games and two wins in
the first ten games.
However after a strong ending of the calendar year and the
breakthrough emergence of Stephan El Saharaawy as one of the world’s young
leading forwards – not to mention a significant improvement in form from most
of the side – saw them win 13 games in the calendar year to seal third.
With no such upturn in the offseason this time round,
Balotelli there for a year, Sharawaay happier on the wing, and M’Baye Niang
growing physically and mentally, Milan have a front three for anyone to fear.
However their back four has shown some signs of weakness, with Sivestre a good
move but Mexes still a labiality, and much rests on the shoulders of Nigel De
Jong, fresh from injury, to provide adequate protection against the best
midfields and attack. While players like Iganzio Abate are class acts and
Christian Abbiait is a transformed man from the previous rick that used to be a
liabity, but there’s little value in a price of 5/1.
Napoli were a tremendous second last term and arguably have
just as much potential to challenge properly this year, but so much depends on
just how they adapt towards the changes that have been made over the summer.
Edison Cavani has
gone to PSG – as had been rumoured for long before the transfer – but the
proceeds of his sale have been reinvested with the aim of making Rafa Benitez’s
new squad much stronger and able to fight on both a European and domestic
level, unlike the last time the Partenopei were in Europe’s premier
competition, when they slumped to sixth, unable to handle the second half of a
long haul season.
Gonazlo Higuain’s arrival from Real Madrid gives the side
another focal point in attack, even if his all round ability simply pales in
comparison to Cavani. Replacing the 38 goals he scored in all competitions will
be very hard but Higuain scored 107 goals in 190 games at Madrid in league
football alone and looks an excellent choice as striker.
With 37 goals in 62 appearances over two seasons ,Dries
Mertens is one of Europe’s fast progressing wingers and an excepting addition,
for all that he will find things so much harder here than in the Eredervsie.
Jose Callejon didn’t get anywhere near as much success with Madrid but with
Napoli in for a busy season, should find himself able to show his true worth
and was a smart addition
Pepe Reina’s arrival is another excellent move – the former
Liverpool stopper isn’t the keeper he used to be but still has an all round
game with a world of difference from Morgan De Sacntis, an admirable shot
stopper who was prone to costly mistakes, and his arrival is a much needed help
with no new central defenders arriving despite the best efforts of De Laurentis
and his team. The addition of Raul Albiol, a versatile defender who brings much
in attacking flair from behind the line.
The real test will be how they handle not only a switch of
manager – Benitez is a class act who brings real trophy hopes – but his
switching to a 4-2-3-1 for players such as Marek Hamsik and Christian Maggio
especially, with the old guard of Mazzari and the new influx of additions
potentially needing gelling time – Bentiez did not start well at Chelsea before
turning things around. Over course of the season then expect a strong title challenge,
but much like with Milan the value has gone from their price and early watching
is required.
Inter looked set to throw the biggest challenge to Juventus
last season after being the first team to beat them at their new fortress in
fine style, but were then struck down by an injury curse like few others, with
14 first team players sidelined at one point, including all senior strikers but
Tommaso Rocchi, meaning they sank down to ninth, their worst finish since
1993-94.
Much of that success came off the back of the forward line
of Diego Miltio, Antionio Cassano and Rodrgio Palacio, so to see Cassano leave
the club and Miltio so badly injured was disheartening, but the club is going
through a transitional phase with several of the players who did the treble now
badly aged,
The arrival of Walter Mazzari as coach is an excellent move
and one that can keep the club competitive long term, and some nice business
has been done in the transfer market, with plenty of young, fresh strikers
arriving, the most exciting of which is Sampdoria’s Mauro Icardi, who scored 10
goals in 31 spperances and also chipped in with four assists. Ishak Belfodil
has similar potential for all that there are worries about his on and off field
temperament.
Hugo Campagnaro is not young but was Napoli’s best defender
and is an absolute must to bring Juan Jesus upto speed, and Rolando too may
steady a ship which is entirely reliant upon Samir Hanandovic, and despite the
best efforts of Mateo Kovatic and Fredy Guarin a top three finish could be
beyond them.
The latest phase of the super saga that is life at Roma seems
to be one of consolidation, both financial and tactical, with Rudi Garcia
replacing Aurelo Andrezzoni and embarking on yet another new project after
Luias Enrique’s attempt and Barcelona replication and Zeman’s usprious
challenges against Jose Mouriniho.
It remains to be seen if the same excitement, drama and
outright hilarity that brightened the Roma experience for all those who aren’t
Roma fans is still around, but Garcia’s experiences with Lille indicate that
slow and steady is going to be the word.
Smart business has been done on the books, with two big
money exits that don’t rake much explaining. Marquinhos is one of the most
promising centrebacks going but 32 million euros from PSG was never going to be
hard to accept and with so many tired of Pablo Osvaldo’s discipline and short
issues a record bid from Southampton was hardly one to be turned down.
That money has since been wisely re-invested on Kevin
Strootman – who will play an integral part in Roma’s season defending a fragile
back four that let in as many goals as relgated Siena last year. Changing
Maarten Steklenburg for Morgan De Sanctis is a strange move, Gervinihio has
every potential to be an absolute horror story, and the jury’s out on Maicon after
a season of ejection at Manchester City, so a huge amount depends on if Erik
Lamela actually stays – he will need to improve on his 15 goals last year if
Roma are to beat Lazio once again.
The Coppa Italia winners floundered after the Christmas
break as a small squad got overextended thanks to two cup runs which regularly
meant they were playing two games at least a week, although they managed to
maintain standards high enough to beat Juventus and then Roma in the semi and
final of the Coppa Italia and also go deep into the Europa League.
With Claudio Lotitio having finally opened his pockets,
Toulca’s Diego Novaretti has been bought to boost the backline, while natural
left back Vinicus – formerly of Cruzeiro – should bring down the average age a
touch amongst the defenders – while Felipe Anderson’s move is an exciting direction
for the club to go in and adds to the central midfield stature of Hernanes, and
Lucas Biga is yet another midfield enforcement for the better in a side that
has plenty to give and kept Federico Marchetti, Hernanes and Antonio Candreva,
but they’re not the only side to have strengthen over the break significantly.
Last but not least, it would be frankly rude to simply
ignore Udinese, who once again defied bank balances and squad depth to finish
fifth last season and just keep producing again and again, having bought in a
whole range of younger players to start the cycle again. However it has mostly
been to the failures of others that they’ve gained Champions League football in
the past and I don’t expect the same case this time around.
Advice
6 pts Juventus (8/11 general)
1 pt each/way Fiorentina (18/1 general)
1 pt win, 1 pt each/way Fiorentina w/o Juventus (11/2 Paddy
Power)
3 pts Fiorentina to finish in top 3 (11/5 Bet365
1 pt Fiorentina +18 on Season H’cap (15/1 Bet Victor)
Advice – Golden boot
1 pt each/way Mario Gomez (7/1 general)
The two sides met last in pre season, with Juventus
dismantling Lazio 4-0 in the Italian supercup, a particularly recent result
that is likely to have an effect on the betting in this particular encounter.
However while it showed the gap between the two sides, several key Juventus
figures have spoken of the need to be wary of a fired up side that will be
looking for revenge, although it is a side shorn of, amongst others,
influential captain Stefano Mauri - Lorik Cana, Felipe Anderson, and Emiliano
Alfaro just some of the names unavailable for selection here. 
