Royal Ascot 2012 - King Edward VII Stakes

3.05 Royal Ascot (Day 4, Race 2)

King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £85,065

Advice: 2 pts win Noble Mission (4/1 general*, 5/1 Sportingbet)

Astrology: Relatively unfancied on debut but came with a late rattle to landing decent maiden at Leopardstown, and then third in Group races at a mile afterwards (good in Futurity, disappointing in the Autumn Stakes); Back in style when romping away with Dee Stakes at Chester (although that was just a heavy ground crawl); Even better when settling strong pace, kicking 3 out and then staying within 5 lengths of Camelot; May have been third in that but clearly second best horse in race with conservative ride and best form but very hard race there despite extra week between races this season.

Farhaaan: Won twice One of those has him ahead of Initiatior) after promising debut (form OK both times) but exposed when fifth in Royal Lodge and promising return still has him behind Noble Mission and Thought Worthy.

Initiator: Really promising debut on one and only 2yo debut (Slowly into stride, only beaten off into final furling, not given hard time); No surprise that she bolted up on seasonal debut and look as a decent type but will find better chances.

Noble Mission: Famous for being full brother to Frankel but making up into a good middle distance performer in his own right, starting this season out with maiden and listed wins before close second to Thought Worthy giving 5lbs in Newmarket Listed event last time out, making all his best headway late; Sure to enjoy step up in trip and that form boosted by runner up’s Derby effort, so hard not to see him taking a hand.

Shantaram: Laboured to win at Newmarket last time but had previously run Model Pupil and Main Sequence to a nose and a half lengths, form that allows him to be right up there in this contest; Suspicion is that fast ground will allow him to show his best so not dismissed out of turn for all that he’s found less off bridle than seemed likely on all occasions; Respected.

Thomas Chippendale: Fancied strongly for reappearance handicap success off just 86 at Newbury but things never dropped right for him that day when taking the wide course into straight; Better when winning Newmarket handicap 2 weeks ago with losts to spare and clearly well thought of to be contesting this race.                                  

Thought Worthy: Won snugly on debut at Newcastle but really impressed when a clear second in the Bet365 Classic Trial, being well beaten by winner but running a good race; Won the Fairway Stakes at Newmarket despite being unsuited by slow gallop and then failing to handle the dip, or the very fast ground in comparison to what he’d previously run on; Fourth in Derby but needs more here given that he’s behind Astrology on form, may well have had just as hard a race, and is now 5lbs badly in with Noble Mission.

VERDICT: Astrology is the clear favourite for this and rightly so based on pure form – he was the second best horse in the Derby despite finishing third – but he had a very hard race that day and despite the extra gap between races this season, he may well be vulnerable today. Even so, he’s taking up more of the market than he should be and has to be opposed on value grounds. On a line through Thought Worthy (seven lengths behind Astrology at Epsom) NOBLE MISSION has a strong chance today, having given him 5lbs when looking as if 1m4f would improve him at Newmarket in the Fairway Stakes. He ought to have an excellent chance today. Shantaram, the choice of William Buick, has strong bare form claims.