The Derby 2012

4.00 Epsom

Investec Derby (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £751,408

Ante Post: 1 pt each/way Bonfire (16/1 Ladbrokes, 8th May 2012), 1 pt each/way Bonfire (12/1, 17th May), 1 pt Bonfire towin Dante & Derby (20/1 Hills, 17th May)

Astrology: Relatively unfancied on debut but came with a late rattle to landing decent maiden at Leopardstown, and then third in Group races at a mile afterwards (good in Futurity, disappointing in the Autumn Stakes); Back in style when romping away with Dee Stakes at Chester but that a 4 runner heavy ground crawl which gave him no pattern opposition; Could still be this good and has to be respected that he’s one of just 2 from Ballydoyle to make the trip here, but others preferred.

Bonfire: Made a taking debut in 1m maiden at Sailsbury but really showed his class when an unlucky third in the Gran Criterium, failing to get a run until late and snatching third behind French Fifteen, who pushed hot favourite Camelot to a head in the 2,000 Guineas; Set to return at Chester in Dee Stakes but connections shunned that to go for the Dante, a wise move as he won well after battling with Ektihaam up the home straight; Guineas sixth Fencing well beaten in third there and Dante has been the key form trial over the past decade, so must go well here; Some cast doubt over staying but nothing in breeding (Manduro from family of Monsun, who stay well), while he chased a very strong pace at York (shouldn’t do so here, while also likely to come on for the run).

Camelot: Impeccably bred colt who had giant reputation before winning maiden at Leopardstown (bare off the bridle to do so at 1/3; Race didn’t work out) but really sparked the flames when running out a deeply impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy, once again not coming off the bridle in doing so (had Fencing well behind in third); Sent off favourite for the 2,000 Guineas based on that and defied poor sire stats (Montjeu had never previously sired a 3yo+ Group 1 winner in Europe) and doubters over trip and even ground with admirable performance in seeing off Group 1 Gran Criterium winner French Fifteen in last 100 yards, made all the more notable by the amount of ground he made up that day;  Form worked out deplorably but clearly an extremely talented horse nevertheless and scary how much he should improve for 1m4f on breeding, being by Montjeu (3 time winning Derby sire, while his Racing Post Trophy win promised that he’d be a better horse for a trip); Fair favourite and must take a huge amount of beating but far too short to be getting involved with now.

Cavaliero: Turned into a good horse at the backend of last season, moving on from a clear cut maiden win at Chepstow (entitled to at 2/7) to beat Harvard N Yale (himself highly regarded at the time); Good return considering the class of the front two and fact he was conceding race – fitness towards the top two at Lingfield in Derby trial, but much more needed here to turn around form with Main Sequence.

Main Sequence: Unbeaten in 4 starts but has come forward 10lbs with each one of them, supplementing impressive come from behind handicap wins at Newmarket with taking Lingfield Derby Trial win, quickening twice to get better of talented John Gosden colt who himself had pushed Model Pupil (should have beaten Mickdaam in the Chester Vase); That form gives him a big chance and no surprise if he’s good enough to be involved here.

Mickdaam: Progressive for Mike De Kock; Showed best form up in trip, winning Al Bastakiya in good style, clearly relishing the step up in trip having been badly found for speed on first two UAE runs this season; First run for Richard Fahey a good one when second in sales race at Newmarket and bettered that form when a game winner of the Chester Vase, just holding on from Modern Pupil; Needs far more here.

Minimise Risk: Made a very promising debut at Doncaster in a race that has produced two other winners (tightened up) and then impressed many when showing strong attitude to beat Uriah Heap on soft ground at Newbury (travelled by far the best of any horse in that race before being brought into prolonged battle); Ran a stinker at Chester and probably not good enough.

Rugged Cross: Scored well in one of the most valuable maidens of the year at York’s Ebor meeting last year and needed his first run of the season when fading late on into third behind Thought Worthy; This demands so much more of him though and others readily preferred.

Thought Worthy: Won snugly on debut at Newcastle but really impressed when a clear second in the Bet365 Classic Trial, being well beaten by winner but running a good race; Won the Fairway Stakes at Newmarket despite being unsuited by slow gallop and then failing to handle the dip, or the very fast ground in comparison to what he’d previously run on; Sure to like this extra 2 furlongs but not sure about the track, might like ease in the ground and was getting 5lbs from runner up (beaten a neck) at Newmarket; Future prospect.

VERDICT: The day of reckoning (once again) for Camelot, who was so gutsy when winning the 2,000 Guineas and promises to improve not only for the run but also the step up in trip, as not only his breeding, but his emphatic Racing Post Trophy win also suggested previously last winter. He should really take the beating here but the value’s never really been in his price at all and it’s hard to get enthused about him as a betting prospection, although getting him beat’s going to be easier said than done. If there’s one horse capable of doing it, then surely ante post tip BONFIRE, who may well have collared French Fifteen with a clear run at the end of his 2yo career before being extremely impressive when winning the Dante, coming clear of Guineas sixth Fencing in good style with Ektihaam dismissed in good style late on, suggesting that he’ll stay the trip just fine despite some casting doubts. He looks to have a great chance of upsetting the favourite, although some of the value has gone from his price as well It has to be said. Main Sequence seems to be next best, with Astrology still having something to prove, and Thought Worthy is a horse for another day if he doesn’t handle the track; He’s clearly talented.