Euro 2012 - Portugal v Holland

Tournament tips Holland and Germany faceoff for a place in the quarter finals – assuming things in the other group game go our way, that being Germany beating Denmark – although Holland need to win by two clear goals, no easy task against Portugal, who look to be in pole position to make into the quarter finals as things stand.

Paulo Bento’s side were widely fancied to fall at the first hurdle in their Group of death – they were just 4/6 to go out before a ball kicked – but they surprised quite a few with how much they created against Germany when the shackles had been let off while they were determined and very deserving of their late 3-2 win over Portugal – and they will be a fearsome test for the Dutch or Group A winners (most likely to be Russia according to the markets at the time of writing) based on that evidence.

The Dutch are considered favourites to win and barring some better finishing from Robin Van Persie, Klaas Jan Huntellar and Arjen Robben at points, then they could easily have 6 points instead of none, but such are the standards at International level that they are now a gigantic looking 6/1 to make it through to the last 8 with most bookmakers.

We all know about the story of the Denmark game, where 29 shots couldn’t produce a single goal – or even close to half of them on target – but the Germany game brought their defensive flaws to the arena fully, with Jetro Whilems in particular having a nightmare against Gomez, and it’s those defensive flaws that make them hard to fancy against Portugal, as I’m almost certain that they’ll need three if they’re to go through.

The second worry on Holland’s part is that Portugal have the tools to shut the game down if they really want - Germany were restricted to just 3 shots on target in their opening game despite having 50% of possession –while they also have the firepower in their ranks to take advantage of Holland’s leaky defence, as they could have had more than the 3 goals scored against Portugal despite having just 40% of the ball in the game (another area they are adept at it taking the most of their chances).

Are Holland capable of beating Portugal? Of course, but doing it by the two goal margin is a tall order given that they look sure to leak at least once through either open play or a set piece delivery, while Pepe and Bruno Alves are a fearsome centre back paring to deal with. The 4/6 that both teams score is available only with Stan James, so the 3/1 and 7/2 that either the Netherlands or Portugal can win while conceding would be where we’d look. Also of interest are the 2-1 correct scores in either sides’ favour, which are both 9/1 which looks generous given the circumstances the game will be played in. Holland are or strongest tips for the tournament outright, but they look dead in the water following their losses to Denmark and Germany, so we’re banking on Germany winning against Denmark and most likely Portugal claiming a win, point or a one goal defeat.

Advice

No bet, but strongly consider the BTTS + win double for your choice (3/1 and 7/2 that either the Netherlands or Portugal wins while conceding with Coral)