The usage of the common footballing phrase “England Expects”
can often be wrong but bookmakers genuinely do think Roy Hodgson’s England can
knock Sweden out of the tournament with a win in their primetime Friday night
encounter. Roy Hodgson’s side were infact cut for the whole tournament with
some bookmakers after their 1-1 draw with France, with all the firms taking
them down to 12-1 from 15-1 (Betfred) and 14/1 respectively. That might have
been an overreaction based upon a slow and steady start to the tournament although
it was a lot better than Sweden results wise, with Erik Hamen’s side failing to
make the best of what had been a promising start when being turned around by
the co-hosts late on by an Andriy Shevchenko double and then fluffing several
good late chances to salvage at least a draw.
The Three Lions have been put in as very strong favourites
for the game, with no better than odds against being offered across the board,
but that looks very short and seems to be based on literal results and form at
face value (England having drawn with France, and both being ranked far higher
than Ukraine and Sweden). Sweden may have lost to Ukraine but it was clear that
the hosts’s poor preparation hadn’t had the predicted effect many felt would
take its toll on the team and Sweden themselves failed to make the early impact
on the game that they’d have desired, with Ukraine having all the major chances
and the opener coming against the run of play. That Ukraine turned it around so
quickly wasn’t just testament to how well they’d been playing, but also how susceptible
the centre back pairing of Olof Mellberg – totally exposed for the opener by Shevchenko
– & Andreas Grangvist – generally unsure of himself the whole night- is to
some genuine movement, and that threat is definitely carried by Ashley Young
and Danny Wellbeck if England can move enough of the ball towards them.
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| Sweden's (blue) defence could easily be breached by England, who are noted dead ball specialists |
With both sides giving up the larger amount of possession to
their rival in the first round of games – England have been noted for their last
4 wins being 1-0, coming against the run of play – which side takes the imitative
in going forward is likely to have a huge impact on the game, with both teams possession
the players to cause significant damage. We haven’t yet seen the best of Alex
Oxlade-Chamberlain or even the likes of James Milner in an attacking midfield
role, while the likes of Rasmuss Elm, Seb Larsson, and Kim Kallstrom were seen
all too little until the Swedes made a late charge, but the situation should be
different this time around with everything on the line for Hamren’s men, while
Ibrahvimovic had a superb opening game in the No.10 slot. With their defence as
leaky as it was against Ukraine they don’t make as much appeal as they should
in the match odds (11/4 in relation to England is far too big) but they can push
them hard and a 1-1 draw isn’t out of the question. It would disappoint both
teams but it makes sense with the Swedes having scored in all 11 competitive
matches under Erik Hamren's management, while they’ve let in goals in their
last 4 games; England haven’t failed to score in their last 6. For another
value seeking bet, try the 1-0 England with it being kept in mind that Hodgson’s
side have won five out of their last 8 that way.
Advice
1 pt 1-1 Draw (13/2 Ladbrokes)
1 pt 1-0 England (13/2 Ladrbokes)
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