Royal Ascot 2012 - Wolferton Handicap

4.25 Royal Ascot (Day 3, Race 4)

Wolferton Handicap (Listed) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £31,190

Advice: 1 pt win Mijhaar (7/2 general), 0.5 pt each/way Kirthill (16/1 general, 14/1 Skybet w/4 places)

Retrieve: Made the frame three times in Australian Group 1;s in 2010/11 but hasn’t given that sort of running for Godophin, ending up well beaten in Group contests last backend; Good AW win at start of season but not so good at Goodwood and others make more appeal here.

French Navy: Looked like a useful recruit when landing class two conditions and Group 3 with ease on first two starts last season, but beaten when stepped up in class at Longchamp and Newbury on latter two occasions and not seen since; Hard to fancy.

Beachfire: Has his own traits of individuality but put it all together when coming from last to first to land win in this last year and then posted good effort in John Smith’s Cup off a 9lbs higher mark to confirm that form; Last of seven behind Retrieve but dropped 2lbs for that and interesting here in bid to retain title.

King’s Gambit: Career best when winning Sandown Group 3 from the front but failed to confirm that form on next 4 starts; Well beaten behind Retrive last time out and drawn 16/16 here, so very hard to like here.

Mijhaar:  Realized debut promise and then some when, demolishing rivals over 10f at Haydock and then came here for last season’s King Edward Stakes, when he was fourth (stamina stretched; Good renewal); Tried to take advantage of handicap mark in 90’s at July meeting next time and just failed; Third off mark of 102 on reappearance over a mile and likely to improve again for step back up to 1m2f and then again the fitness that should have brought out in him.

Con Artist: Lightly raced 5yo who got back to winning ways when holding out in Epsom handicap (raised 7lbs) and even better effort when chasing home Danadana in Zetland Gold Cup; Gets a pull that should be enough to turn around the form and draw of 7 good in this context; Can’t dismiss although never raced on ground this soft before.

Ottoman Empire: AW specialist who has posted good efforts on turf too, running big races in defeat last 5 starts (barring one occasion at Meydan); Even better when just held off by Gatewood at Epsom last time, and has a 5lbs swing for a neck; Did get dream run compared to the winner that day and the ground is turning against him; Shortlisted.

Danadana: Fifth in decent looking King George handicap last season; Moved smoothly on front end and never off bridle until 2 & 1/2 furlongs and fitness told in the end in good Newmarket handicap on return; Built on that promise when scoring at Newmarket last month, and following up at Redcar recently in Zetland Gold Cup; Not hard to think that he can go on and do well again (not all out at Redcar despite winning margin of just a neck) but badly in with the second from his first handicap win and the third from his latest; Will need to have as much in hand as it seemed latest.

Qaraaba: Three from four this season, , sole defeat at hands of Danadana at Newmarket (giving 3lbs and now weight to reverse the form): Goes on soft ground and seems improved as Doncaster latest, so lots to like about his chances, although drawn 14 of 15.

Kirthill: Ended 2011 landing a 16-runner Newbury handicap (sent off 11-2 favourite; 1¼m) in October, hanging left inside the final furlongs but always sure to win; That form worked out OK in behind and first run since at York a decent one, with fitness just telling (12lbs better off with Gatewood); Can go well here.

Hyper: Won his last 5 on firm -ground events up to 9f in US, three allowances and two claiming races in that streak; Did well considering he had no run until late at Belmont but this ground vastly different and drawn in 15; Others make more appeal.

Black Spirit: Has been thoroughly consistent despite last win coming in 1m Sandown handicap in 2010; Ran a good race when fourth of 13 at Epsom last time out and well weighted with most here, although being drawn 12 could be problematic and not sure that she really wants the ground this way.

Gatewood: Looked to have something to offer when winning his maiden at Salisbury and built on that promise (handicap fourth inbetween) with wins at York and Epsom in well contested handicaps this season, winning despite drifting on first occasion and then coming with stunning run from last to first at Epsom despite having given himself tons to do (from most awful position)

Sirvino: Below form when a well beaten eight behind Danadana latest but does get handy pull and met trouble there; May be exposed in the eye of the assessor though and that a possible worry.

Opera Gal: Fourth in Select Stakes behind French Navy and then disappointed behind Hunter’s Light in Listed contest at same track (if you can call it a disappointment given how she was sent off 10/1); Others make more appeal here after fourth on reappearance.

VERDICT: A fascinating handicap with no end of possible choices – although it’s a shame the ground has put off the chances of some. It’s interesting to note that the winner and runner-up in five of the last seven years at Ascot were drawn in what are now single-figure stalls, but rain negated that theory last season. Leading pair MIJHAAR and Gatewood are sure to have their supports and should be feared, with Roger Varian’s charge making just the more appeal of the two, having been third over an inadequate looking mile behind Fury and Prince Of Johannes (Hunt Cup winner), and with the ground in his favour he gets a tentative choice. There’s tons of potential value if one looks around though, with last year’s winner Beachfire only 7lbs higher and coming from a perfect inside draw, while KIRTHILL is 12lbs better off with Gatewood for his reappearance (for which he should improve greatly) and needs strong considering even with the ground a possible negative.