Tour De France 2013 - Stage 3

If the first two stages of this year’s Tour De France are anything to be going by, all cycling fans are in for quite a treat over the next three weeks. After the first day’s incessant crashing and bus themed drama, yesterday we had a 6 man break spring late after a day full of action, which Jan Bakelantes ignoring the cat and mouse games to strike for home so far and so early that he took the yellow jersey with a gap of just a second from the chasing pack, which didn’t include so many of the sprinters that had hopes of pulling on the yellow jersey for a day.

Today’s hot favourite, as he was yesterday, is Peter Sagan, who was just a second behind Bakelants and can still take the yellow jersey with a win today, assuming that he is able to distance Bakelants by more than one second in victory. With today’s profile once again one for the puncheurs, he should take beating but he’s no price at 2/1 with so many variables against him.

Part of the plan to create drama from the start, today’s race is much like yesterday’s with a rolling profile that ‘doesn’t contain a metre of flat’ according to the organisers. The first sprint comes early – 28KM infact – but after a long descent, so how many points will be on offer is very debateable. The col de San Martino and Cote De Porto offer mountains points but neither are expected to be partirucalry testing and today’s deciding factor will be the Col De Marsolino –  3.3km at an average gradient of 8.1% - after steadily rising road. Just 12KM from the finish, much like yesterday’s Salario, it’ll be the deciding factor with a narrow, tricky and fast descent rewarding those who can make it to the top intact – there’s a roundabout with 500m to go, but it shouldn’t make a huge amount of difference for those who have their wits about them.

The terrain is made for a breakaway on paper but so many holding with a chance for yellow from a number of teams who would be strong enough to keep it for a while, and Radioshack likely to do everything to protect it, every effort will be made to control a break today and reel it in, although it may be late.

The finish fits any number of riders but we’re looking for someone with the capability to accelerate on the climb and a fast descended, while sprinting will be important. If the grupetto are altogether then the GC favourites may come into the reckoning also – Chris Froome’s idea of keeping people on their toes’ with a late attack maybe on others minds today – here’s looking at you, Joaqium Rodriguez.

Slyvain Chavanel might not be all pure climber but his all-round skills are unrivalled and it would have been interesting to see how he’d have fared had he not played cat and mouse when the pack were closing in. My thinking is that he’d have been hard to beat given the power of the group, and he is much better than a 16/1 shot for terrain like this – team mate and National Polish Champion Michal Kwiatkowski could also be there, having finished like a flash to take third in a bunch sprint yesterday.

Fourth and fifth in the Amstel Gold and La Fleche Wallone, Kwiatkowski is rapidly becoming a top all-rounder and has shown not only his capability to handle the sharper, harder climbs, but also his prowess in a select sprint group, and while the 30/1 with Bwin is simply outstanding, the lack of an each/way option leads us to the 22/1 with Paddy Power.

Advice

1 pt each/way Sylvain Chavanel (16/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt each/way Michal Kwiatkowski (22/1 Paddy Power) 

Tour De France 2013 - Stage 2

In all the 99 years of the Tour De France we’ve seen some pretty incredible drama but yesterday’s opening stage was from the absurd to the brutal and right back again. Mark Cavendish’s dreams of wearing yellow went down with most of the rest of the field, only as the confusion caused by the Orica Greenedge Bus which somehow found itself wedged beneath the finish line, meaning that the organisers were forced to announce that they would bring the finish forward by three kilometres, the bus of the Australian team was freed to allow the organisers to use the original finish after all.

The confusion – predictably, some might have said, or as Mark Cavendish predicted – led to crashes, one of which took out most of the field including Alberto Contador, most likely ending Tony Martin’s tour, and taking out the three big favourites for the Green Jersey in Peter Sagan, Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

If Sagan is fully recovered – and he seemed jovial after yesterday’s fall – then he is expected to win today’s second stage, which is part 2 of the Tour’s three day jaunt to Corsica, designed to showcase the beauty of the Island and see aggressive racing which will see the yellow jersey change three times in three days, in stark contrast to the usually flat first weeks of previous years.

The profile steadily rises from the start, with the intermediate sprint located in Castello Di-Rostino after just 33KM, meaning a break would do well to get away. After 48 and then 63KM (with first climb of the day) the road kicks up again with the Col de Bellegerajo, before the Col De La Serra, and then the Col De Vizzzavona, which is 6.5% for nearly 5KM.

Following that, there’s a long and fast descent – not overly technical which in theory will allow those dropped to get back on if in realistic touching distance – some 30KM’s are downhill. The race’s finish is an up and down affair, with the Cote Du Salario meant to be just a Category 3 climb in in reality a proper ramp for a kilometre, having an average over 8.9%. I expect that to put paid to any sprinters’ – and if not that, then the ramp of 5% with 2KM to go should prove too much once again.

It’s a day made for Peter Sagan, but at 13/8 he’s priced like a winner already and it might be best to look elsehwhere. Mark Cavendish is only 7/1, which seems on the short side given the amount of climbing early and even if he’d make it back on the downhill run, he’ll be vulnerable to attacks on the Solario – assuming he can handle the percentages anyway.

John Degenkolb is a better climber than most would put him down as but thrives on the uphill finish so much more than most and has the same worries with extended periods of uphill effort.

Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen is arguably the second best puncheur in this race behind Sagan, and should Sky be near the front of the Peloton – they were always in attendance today – he may be let off the leash and while you wouldn’t expect him to stay with Sagan, he can drop any sprinter he’d like on the ascents. A general price of 14/1 must be worth a chance and Coral’s 16/1 could easily look like a mistake tomorrow afternoon, and the 7/2 he finishes in the top three is worth taking too.

Advice

1 pt win Edvald Boasson Hagen (16/1 Coral, 14/1 general)

1 pt Edvald Boasson Hagen top three finish (7/2 Bwin) 

Irish Derby 2013

6.30 Curragh

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €725,000

Advice: 3 pts win Ruler of the World (11/10), 1 pt straight forecast Ruler of the World & Libertarian (5.12 Bet365)

Cap O’Rushes: Much improved for the step upto 12 furlongs when fourth in the King George V H’Cap at Royal Ascot on first run for Saeed Bin Suroor, but pacemaker.

Festive Cheer: Promising return in French Group 2 but down the field at Epsom and can’t imagine that he’ll improve hugely on that.

Galilieo Rock: Top class stayer in the making last year and followed up close third in Sandown Derby Trial when front running third at Epsom, third from the start of the home straight until the line; Can’t imagine him reversing the form with front two but plenty of potential for a place once again.

Liberterian: Showed his returning fourth in Bet365 classic trial (carried and chance ended) to be all wrong when taking winner of Dante, and then biggest eyecatcher of them all when second in Derby, having been all at sea on Epsom’s cambers, coming with a flying run for second; Might not have caught the winner but clear second best and should enjoy strongly run race on conventional track and could get closer today.

Little White Cloud: Likely to make a good stayer in future, but group 3 defeats over 10 furlongs do not suggest that he is good enough.

Ralston Road: Significant potential based on way he won 12 furlong Leopardstown maiden and Chester handicap, but exposed as below Group standard when only eighth in the Queens’ Vase.

Ruler of the World: Gave impression that he was clearly smart with Curragh maiden win (front two well clear), and then again when running away with Chester Vase, but surpassed all expectations when running out a ready winner of the Derby, coming from second last in slowly run race to win well; That only his third run and potential to be better still for more truly run race today, so has to be considered the one to beat.

Sugar Boy: Well raced as 2yo but improving rapidly based on his two starts this season, one when a solid, albeit well beaten second behind Battle of Marngo (4^th at Epsom) getting large amount of weight; Sandown trial win was that of a horse who is going to improve for step up in trip and can run big race for all he looks exposed.

Trading Leather: Classy 2yo (second to Battle of Marengo on debut), high point when winning strong renewal of Autumn Stakes; Excellent return when second in Dante Stakes and has built on that in Irish Guineas (third, second since won Jersey Stakes), and then when running out ready winner of Listed race latest (UAE Derby winner second).

VERDICT: Some have put the Derby form into question but there’s no question that RULER OF THE WORLD and Libertarian are better than they were able to show for differing reasons that day and on a conventional track with a much stronger pace than was present at Epsom, both could be a class ahead of the rest of this field, although Trading Leather and Sugar Boy are all entitled to take a hand.

Lions Tour of Australia 2013 - 2nd Test

The Lions stand within 80 minutes of history today, but for all that they have the lead today in the series betting is meant to be an application of reason and sense and on the evidence last week Warren Gatland’s men should be playing to save the series rather than take it.

Such are Lions tours – and the nature of the biggest test matches – that this can be said of many games, but the simple fact of the matter is that last week’s first test turned into a game that Australia lost rather than the Lions winning, and this week once gets the feeling that such luck won’t be coming their way this weekend.

In a game that was very much the tight contests that many hard predicted, two crucial factors made the difference; The flyhalf and the goal kicking. While James O’Connor had a very poor game pulling the strings for Australia, and neither him or Kurtley Beale could land crucial penalty attempts, Leigh Halfpenny’s exemplary tour off the tee continued and he missed only one kick at goal from all his attempts, and Johnny Sexton had a fine and measured game with the limited ball he got after Mike Phillips’ numerous failed sniping and pick and go attempts.

While O’Connor is a questionable choice to lead the backline once again, he won’t be taking the kicking duties and wouldn’t have been last week, although the curse of injury towards Australian backs reared its ugly head once again. Brumbies playmaker Christian Leali'ifano – who would have kicked and has outstanding tee stats – was knocked out and Berrick Barnes suffered the same fate two minutes before halftime, meaning that Michael Hooper had to be drafted back into inside centre – the same gap that flew open to Alex Cuthbert which saw the Lions take a decisive lead.

Simply said, as wonderful as the first test was to watch, it’s a miracle that the Lions won at all, and had they taken their points off the tee, they would have won by a significant margin.

With both sides similar priced one week later – Australia are shorter now but the handicaps are generally the same – the question has to be what’s changed since. For Australia, Kurtley Beale’s inclusion – along with a resurgence in the pack from - bought the Australians roaring back into touching distance and while he will be forever remembered for missing that fateful kick – should the Lions win today - his presence from the start is a major boost, and the depth in reserve that have ensured an excellent second kicker and fullback in Jesse Mogg and a class centre in Rob Horne.

Chris Pollock’s refereeing was obviously helpful from an Australian perspective, as his preference for ball retention stopped Sam Warburton from getting involved – and Michael Hooper from doing likewise – but both sides may have issues with Craig Joubert. Willing to allow a contest at the breakdown – not one which is certain to go the way of the Lions given Australia’s outstanding Michael Hooper – his no tolerance approach to scrum time is his most famous feature. Famous for having awarded 28 penalties or free-kicks, resulting in a Test record 18 penalty kicks at goal, in Wales’s 6 Nations win against Scotland, there will be no time for error or early engagement from either side. Today’s contest won’t be so stop start – the Welsh searched Joubert to the the point where they had calculated in advance precisely how much time would elapse between Joubert saying the words “touch” and “engage” before a scrum – but it does place critical importance upon the performance of a front row which may rely heavily upon Adam Jones, after Mako Vunipola had a poor cameo last week in the set piece.

The Lions should get more joy at the breakdown this week, but the forward battle is expected to be even and of more consequence to the Lions may be the addition of Ben Youngs to the starting lineup after Mike Phillips was so disappointing last week. The quicker service that Youngs will provide to Johnny Sexton and the backline will mean that the Lions get far faster service today and are sure to be a bigger threat today.

The two sides seem simply impossible to split on all evidence seen so far, and much like last week this could be a one score game – the Lions and Australia are 9/2 and 5/1 to win by 1-5 points and that seems the best value.

Advice

1 pt Lions to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)

1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general) 

Tour De France 2013 - Finding the 100th Winner

When Bradley Wiggins was being serenaded with applause from all sides upon the Champs Elysses last year on like a golden day for British sport, it could have been easily forgotten that so much of the success had been down to Chris Froome, who now gets his chance to make his name in history by winning the 100^th Edition of the Tour De France, and all the signs point towards him doing so.

Arguably the strongest overall rider last year - Froome was a clear winner of the race by three minutes without Wiggins despite losing a minute in the prologue -and definitely the strongest when the race went uphill, Froome has since come into his own as a stage racer and now stands as Sky’s undisputed leader for the race after a saga that had threatened to overshadow the team’s performance with Bradley Wiggins now sadly unable to defend his title due to ill form and illness.

This year’s Tour route – and tour in general – is a far tougher test than last year’s affair was and seems as made for Froome as much as last year’s was made for Wiggins, with one of the most testing last weeks’ in history taking in a Pyrenees’ triple header, including the double climb of L’Alpe D’huez, and while it also boasts a fantastic climbing time trial on Wedensday the 17^th with two category 2 climbs and descents – not forgetting the return of Ax-3 Domaines’ and Mont Ventoux before.

Without a stage race win to his name before this season, Froome has now won 4 of the 5 stage races he’s entered this season in convincing style, with his one defeat – at Tirreno Adriatico where he found himself overgeared and undersupported on the brutal 20% climbs of Sant’Elipido, with only Giro D’Italia Champion Vincenzo Nibali able to beat him over the course of the week. Elsewhere, he has won the Tour of Oman, Criterium International, Tour de Romandie and Criterium Du Dauphine in style, showing little to no moments of worry regardless of the opposition, especially his supposed main rival Alberto Contador.

One of the finest stage racers of his generation, and possibly all time, Contador is already a legend of the Tour De France with three wins to his name (for argument’s sake, we are not taking away any titles from him), and the only Grand Tour rider here to have won all three of cycling’s Grand Tour.

On his return from suspension, Contador used an audacious attack to snatch what had looked like a lost cause in the Vuelta when beating off fellow Spanish climbers Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez, with Froome over 10 minutes behind in a well beaten fourth. Given the mountain heavy route of the Vuelta – with very few transitional or flat stages and several high summit finishes – that performance and his others obviously shows his class, but Froome went to Spain as an afterthought after a huge Tour and Olympic effort in both the road race and time trial, leaving him exhausted and vulnerable on the several sharp climbs to specialist climbers who exposed his tiredness after the first week.

While this year’s tour is one for the specialist climbers, Froome – who has been the best climber in stages races this year  comes here having been trained to peak through racing and winning just like Bradley Wiggins and should be at his physical peak.

Improvement is expected of Contador – who has been in solid form despite winning just one stage and been involved in nearly every mountain top finish that he’s raced so far, while he was only beaten so far on the climb to Risoul after trying to help Michel Rodgers, part of a strong support team - who was once a short priced favourite for this but has drifted as a result of what has been a subdued early season preparation, most notably when finishing 4 minutes behind Froome in the Dauphine after losing 3.37 to him on the fast 32KM time trial.

Contador complained that he was suffering with allergies on that day and also that he’s nowhere near his true form, both of which may be true, but the pure fact of the matter is that he’s yet to beat Froome in any meeting this year, will have to break him and his support squad to the tune of over a minute, is extremely vulnerable in the time trials to those who can gain an advantage at this discipline. We could see a different man this month, but all the evidence points to Froome being the man to beat and there isn’t a single person in the top 20 of the betting that he hasn’t beaten over the past year. Obviously Cycling is open to all fortunes and there are the risks attached of illness and injury, but assuming he stays upright he is the outstanding choice for tour success and while we already have 5/2 ante post, the 4/5 that Paddy Power and Bet Victor are offering is worth strong support, with those who are keen on Contador advised to take the evens about him without Froome – a race that looks very open.

When the initial route was announced I advised getting on Joaquin Rodriguez and have done so again twice since, and while this is his best chance of a yellow jersey, the achillies heel that is his time trialling looks set to prevent him from launching a serious challenge for the yellow jersey.  One of the finest climbers going, Rodriguez could and arguably should have won two of the three Grand Tours last year, but lost both in the final stages, finding himself exposed by Contador’s sheer power in the Vuelta, having previously lost the Giro on the final days’ time trial.

In solid form this season – he’s been 4^th at the Tour of Oman, fifth at Tirreno, and second in the Volta a Catalunya while showing good form in the Spring classics – he should be building towards a bold showing, but he haemorrhaged time – more than 3 minutes – to Froome on the flat Contre La Montre in the Dauphine and while Stage 11’s profile is a little lumpier than that and should have less pronounced gaps, it’s still hard to see him gaining back that time through the tour and he’s a top 5 or top 10 shout in all reality.

Fellow Spanish climber Aljenadro Valverde took an age to find any sort of form last year but did win the final summit finish before a fine Vuelta campaign, where he actually took a fine second after going head to head with Contador and Rodriguez. A return to that sort of form would give him a good chance and he has shown excellent consistency  when the road goes uphill this year, so has an outside podium shot if improving on what he’s shown so far and limiting his losses after stage 11, especially with an exciting team to partner him (more about that below).

Tejay Van Garderen is a truly top class prospect who has improved since his fifth last year – especially in terms of pacing himself through long time trials – but winning in Europe has been very difficult for him and the presence of Cadel Evans as team leader may shackle him at crucial times like it did last year. He’s well worth supporting at 4/6 in a match bet with his team mate – Evans is now 36 and rode one of the most brutal Giro D’Italia campaigns in years to its end – but the white jersey once again will be his main prize.

He faces extremely stiff competition for that prize from bright new thing Nairo Quinatana (centre, with Porte left Talansky right, and Van Garderen in white), the Colombian rocket who’s taken the world of cycling by storm and who has predicted for big things by many since last year, where he impressed hugely with his Stage 6 win at the Dauphine when beating off the best of the climbers there, and while he was just 38^th at last year’s Vuelta, he’s clearly taking a huge amount from that this year and come into his own in a campaign that has bought him his first stage race success in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, supplementing his second in the Volta a Catalunya and  15^th at Paris Nice. His climbing talents have always been known, but he beat all but Tony Martin when winning Pais Vasco and had several classy riders behind there.

This year’s route should hold no fears for him and his aggressive style of racing could really pay dividends on climbs such as Mont Ventoux and Ax-3 Domaines, and while he might not have the altitude advantages that those from Colombia can call upon, he could well be the one to surprise the non-cycling public with a high finish and could break into the top 10.

Frenchmen Thiabut Pinot and Pierre Rolland, who both reached the Top 10 last year, should enjoy this year’s course – which places very little emphasis on time trialling and everything on climbing and descending, skills which both are adept at, and both merit support for the Top 10 although Pinot makes a little more appeal given his stronger form this season – having beaten Rolland twice recently.

Runner up in 2009, 10 and 11, Andy Schleck is one of the most deserving cyclists of a Grand Tour win but his inability to time trial has cost him dearly before and his chance looks to have gone based on  his injury troubles after a heavy crash last year before the tour. His best overall result is 25^th – that at the Tour of California – and the only bet of any value with him in it is Jurgen Van De Broeck – fourth last year – to beat him over the three weeks with Ladbrokes, with seems astonishing.

With so many of Froome’s rivals having weak points, Froome’s main man Richie Porte actually becomes of podium interest. Best known for putting the pedal to the metal and dropping climbers as if they weren’t there last year on the highest climbs last year, Porte has come into his own in the same way that Chris Froome has this year, winning Paris-Nice in stunning style, taking dominant wins in the uphill time trial and summit finish, before finishing runner up to Froome in the Criterium International and Dauphine.

There’s always a worry that he could burst after setting too high a tempo for Froome, but he’s one of the best climbers in the race and is also a superb time trials who could make significant gains into the pure climbers on Stage 11, while his strong uphill time trial form is an excellent point for Stage 17’s test. Porte’s not expected to win – unless the worst should happen to Chris Froome. Porte has beaten most if not all of the market leaders, and can still be found at 7/1 with three places in a market without Chris Froome, and in a market without Froome and Alberto Contador, he’s 11/2 with Bwin, which has the shape of great value.

 Advice – Yellow Jersey

20 pts Chris Froome (4/5 Bwin, Paddy Power)

1 pt Richie Porte w/o Froome or Contador (11/2 Bwin)

1 pt each/way Richie Porte w/o Chris Froome (7/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)

Advice – Match bets

4 pts Tejay Van Garderen to beat Cadel Evans (8/11 Bet365)

5 pts Jurgen Van Den Broeck to beat Andy Schleck (8/13 Ladbrokes) 

Confederations Cup Semi Final - Spain v Italy

Spain can set up a blockbuster final with Brazil on Sunday at the expense of Italy in today’s second Confederations Cup semi final, and it looks very hard to go against Spain in their bid for yet another piece of silverware. Unlike some of the recent editions, this tournament has been filled with quality play from start to finish, and in typical style, Spain have been amongst the tournament’s best, moving through Group B in style, scoring 15 goals and conceding just the once when winning all three games.

Vicente del Bosque's side are now unbeaten in 25 games in all competitions, winning 20 of those during a run which started way back in November 2011, going through their Euro 2012 success as well which was finished in style with their now famous 4-0 destruction of Italy. Spain’s class showed in that tournament – with some unimpressive football during the group and early knockout stages leading some to call their football boring, but their one sided hammering of Italy was one of the finest performances of recent years on the International stages and cemented Spain’s status amongst the great sides of all time.

A repeat of that performance today should see Spain put a similar amount of distance between them and it’s very hard to argue with quotes of 8/15 for another Spanish win between the two. La Roja went off 5/4 for the Euro 2012 final -the two met in the group stages and fought out a well contested 1-1 draw – but the gap between the two based on that evidence justifies such short odds.

This is unlikely to be such a rout for Spain – Italy were wrecked at the end of the Euros after their magnificent effort to beat Germany in the semi finals – but they’ve been unusually loose at the back in their three games so far and aren’t exposed to put up much resistance especially with the loss of Mario Balotelli and Ingazio Abate to injury against a full strength Spain side.

The 3-6-1 formation employed tonight is an obvious attempt to stifle Spain at source and the return to a three man defence should suit the Azzuri, but it’s hard to see a reversal of the formbook here and all things considered, Spain should land our favourites double in 90 minutes and can keep the clean sheet as well; A dutch of the 1 and 2-0 correct scores makes appeal.

Advice

1 pt 1-0 Spain (6/1 188Bet)

1 pt 2-0 Spain (6/1 general)

Already Advised

3 pts Brazil-Spain double (1.90 general)

Confederations Cup 2013 - Brazil v Uruguay

Brazil’s preparations for the 2014 World Cup look so much brighter after the Confederations Cup and Luis Felipe Scolari’s side can brush aside South American counterparts Uruguay to book their place in Sunday’s final.

Under fire for the last two seasons after a disappointing Copa America, Luis Scolari’s second tenure at Brazil threatened to be atomistic one after Mano Menez’s young side failed to win the Olympic tournament and then went on a poor run of friendly results against bigger nations – including draws against Italy, Colombia, Chile, and England (whom they also lost to on foreign soil) – but have quickly found their best form to win their group in impressive style and seem to be setting upon the formation and first XI that they will use to try and land a sixth World Cup.

Situated in the tougher of the groups, Brazil have been rarely troubled in progressing to this stage, sweeping aside Japan, Mexico and Italy in fine style, rarely looking troubled barring one for minute period where Italy drew level in their final group game only to be brushed well aside in a short second half burst after that. Scolari’s side were generally expected to find Italy the toughest test from an attacking viewpoint so far but that situation never materialized with a dominant performance which could have seen them score more than their 4 goals.

New Barcelona signing Neymar has been living well upto the hype given to him so far during this tournament, scoring three fine goals and threatening with his every touch, while both Fred and Jo have already scored in the tournament so far - either is a pertinent threat.

In midfield, Oscar has asserted himself as the central playmaker with Hernanes providing a solid platform and Luis Gusatvo excelling, and while their defence is much maligned, the running threat of Alves and Marcelo has more than made up for it and with Thiago Silva and David Luiz partnering eachother at centerback Uruguay’s main problem will be containing the unrelenting onslaught rather than responding.

Oscar Tabarez’s men were impressive and deserved winners of the Copa America a couple of years ago and will be eagerly awaiting the next World Cup, but had only one meaningful game in relation to the task they’’ll face against Brazil and were hopelessly outclassed at one point against Spain before Luis Suarez’s late free kick added gloss towards the score.

Nigeria caused them no end of trouble with their pace outwide leaving them constantly exposed, and this Brazil side should have no problem using the same tactics to gain a convincing success. In each of their games so far, they have covered a one goal handicap – while they could have scored more in all three games. Double them with reigning European and World Champions Spain – facing Italy tomorrow – for a 90 minute double at nearly evens.

Advice

2 pts Brazil -1 (evs Ladbrokes)

3 pts double Brazil/Spain (1.90 general)