Football Betting Blog - 10th November 2010

Nearly a very good night for the blog, with Stoke making hard work of it, but the Tottenham – Sunderland game let us down, with a 1-1 drawn having the wrong scoring order, and to make it worse, Craig Gordon saved about 3 or 4 goals.

The first Manchester derby of the season promises to be a feisty affair and it's very difficult to predict which way things will go, with City having their best squad since the 60’s and Man United coming in off the back of 6 straight wins, none of them having being easy games, along with the proviso of having a decimated squad minus Vidic, Evra, Nani and possibly Carrick, Berbatov, Anderson, and Giggs. Sir Alex Ferguson is famously notorious for playing mind games with this sort of things, and whatever the squads, the game will be very tight.

It would make sense to back a team with a goal start, particularly as the chances are about 50-50 if either side winning. Chelsea have already found out how good MANCHESTER CITY are at home and tonight might be the time for the “noisy neighbours” to stake a real claim for silverware this season, and finally end United’s unbeaten run of 11 Premier League games.

One big thing for City is that Carlos Tevez is back - just look at the impact he had in the win over West Brom on Sunday. With players like Yaya Toure & Nigel De Jong they'll provide a major physical challenge for United, while the likes of Milner and especially David Silva can create chances all day long.

The Red Devils go into the derby game with manager Sir Alex Ferguson admitting he has ‘no idea’ which side he will pick due to a combination of both injury and illness. A virus has swept through the club’s training ground meaning several players are doubtful for the trip to the City of Manchester Stadium. While (as said above) these could be mind games, a weakened squad is more a problem now than ever.

City have a very noisy home support who will make it tough for United, and while neither result would be a surprise (in the previous eight games between the two sides at the City of Manchester Stadium there has never been a draw) the percentage call is to back the home side with a one goal start, or draw no bet.

ASTON VILLA are in desperate need of a result, going the wrong way with no win in their last five (three draws and two defeats). While they remain unbeaten at home, their last two have ended goalless and they've won just twice at Villa Park.

It might seem insulting to BLACKPOOL to say they are an ideal side to turn the corner against and you’d have to fancy them if you looked at their away from (impressive wins at Liverpool (2-1) and Newcastle (2-0) as well as an opening-day 4-0 thrashing of Wigan at the DW) but Liverpool were in no sort of form and Wigan are one of the most inconsistent teams in the division.

The thing you can always say about them is that they start really well and go for it, but their problem is that they can't soak up pressure, and Villa could able to pick them off.

Despite the absence of big-name players like Gabby Agbonlahor and John Carew in the 1-1 draw at Fulham, Villa should have won. Gerard Houllier's counter-attacking approach is perfect for playing against a team like Blackpool, who just go for it. Although they are likely to be tested, they should come out on top.

CHELSEA looked poor against Liverpool but still posed a major threat and had it not been for a couple of great pieces of defending and a superb Pepe Reina save, they would have made that game really tight and they dominated possession.

The Blues have been fantastic at Stamford Bridge this season, and remain the only team to maintain a 100 per cent record on their own turf. They have also scored more number of goals (16) than any other team in their home games, and are also the only side not to have conceded a single goal in their own backyard.

Fulham are notoriously poor travellers and good opposition for Chelsea, having put in an average at best performance at the weekend, with lingering doubts as to whether they deserved a draw with Aston Villa after a late goal by Hangerland. Back the hosts with a -1 goal deficit, as they should have enough class to win by 2 or more.

There’s a sense of growing optimism about Newcastle and while you can only be impressed about their impressive wins last week (thrashed Sunderland, won at Arsenal) there is a sense of inconsistency about the Magpies at home, having lost to Blackpool, Stoke, and very nearly Wigan.

BLACKBURN don’t travel too well but the same could have been said of Stoke earlier on in the season, while Rovers have a better defensive record than Chris Houghton’s side, so they may well be competitive off a +1 goal start.

It's too early to think that LIVERPOOL have emerged from the doldrums following a great win over Chelsea (meaning they have won their last 4 on the bounce for the first time this season) but Wigan look perfect opponents for them to take a trip to with their leaky defence (have conceded two or more goals in ten of their last 15 league games).

Liverpool have managed just one goal in their last four away games but there seems to be very little atmosphere at Wigan these days and a squad being full on confidence should be able to go and grab a win.

The general opinions seems to be that Everton will beat BOLTON with something to spare tonight but Bolton are a tough nut to crack, and will be bouncing after a 4-2 win over Tottenham on Saturday. That was a very poor an d tired side, but they were lucky to lose against Liverpool beforehand and their 6th place position in the table does not flatter them despite having only gotten one point more than Everton.

Bolton have definitely become easier on the eye under Owen Coyle and play much more football now, but they still have the two-pronged attack of Kevin Davies and Johan Elmander. Physically they're very tough and defensively they're strong, and they can come away with something from the Goodison Park.

In the other games, Arsenal are too inconsistent to be a guaranteed winner at Wolves, who can take some real hope into the game after an impressive victory over Manchester City and battling effort at Manchester United last time out, while West Brom’s leaky defence and injures don’t make appeal away to a rather bad West Ham side.

Recommendations

Manchester City to beat Manchester United with a 1 goal start (21/50 Bet365)

Aston Villa to beat Blackpool (4/7 Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Paddy Power)

Chelsea to beat Wolves giving a 1 goal start (8/15 Skybet, 4/7 Totesport)

Blackburn to beat Newcastle with a 1 goal start (5/6 Bet365, Skybet, Totesport, Betfred)

Liverpool to beat Wigan (4/5 Bet365, Skybet, VCBet, Blue SQ, StanJames)