Heron Stakes 2012

8.05 Sandown

Betfair Heron Stakes (Listed) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £18,714

Advice: 2 pts win Top Offer (9/4 Blue Sq, 888Sport), 1 pt each/way Eastern Sun (8/1 Sportingbet, Coral, 7/1 w/Skybet who will pay ¼ and 3 places)

Saigon: Upset 4-9 chance (with pair well clear in the closing stages) after sluggish start and even better when overhauling good types at Newbury in style of a progressive sort; Not won since then but kept very good company; Might be a touch exposed.

Stipulate:  Career best when making impressive comeback in listed company at Newmarket in Fielden Stakes and forgiven his effort in the Bet365 Classic Trial on account of the really heavy ground; Clearly talented but might be one for middle distances and has a penalty to carry for his win there; Might be a back to lay option at 18’s though, especially if sent to the front.

Cogito: Created a very good impression when landing Newmarket Maiden in April, which was impressive considering how notably yard’s runners come on for a run; 4 subsequent winners come from that event so form looks strong given the fact that he was clear in his own time, and has to be respected.

Eastern Sun: Impressive maiden winner who didn’t handle heavy ground in Solario Stakes of last year; Put that right with AW conditions stakes win at Kempton and then third in the Craven Stakes (possibly on ground with more cut than he’d like) just 12 days later; Good horse on what we’ve seen and should be respected with trainer and jockey in form.

Karhman: All the way winner of 1m Kempton AW maiden when he took subsequent winner with him all the way; Yard in cracking form and surely has more to offer on both experience and improvement, so has to be respected.

Ocean Tempest: This seems to be a big ask for a horse who was beaten off 76 last Thursday; Respectable horse but he’s got so much to prove this year.

Redact: Sharp 2yo, winning first two races by a total winning distance of eight lengths before Super Sprint fourth, amongst his better efforts; Midfield in Guineas after Free Handicap fourth and might need to find more against unexposed types.

Tales Of Grimm: Taking, if not clear cut winner of his maiden in marginally quicker time than other division winner Top Offer, beating subsequent clear cut winner and Fillies Mile third Firdaws (got blocked in her run); That form gives him a chance and respected although stable not having a great time with seasonal debutants.

Top Offer: Clearly very talented based on Newbury maiden win last August, confirming high home reputation in style; Earmarked for big things since then but missed Greenham on account of testing ground and likely that same thing didn’t suit him in 2,000 Guineas itself; Easy to forgive that run and while it might be churlish to suggest this is a drop in class, he’s got potential in abundance, should strip fitter and not hard to give another chance.

Irish History: Emphatic six and a half length winner of Windsor maiden, drawing right away from seemingly moderate field although that can take nothing away from her win; This a hard test for her but must be respected anyway.

VERDICT: A very competitive race with lots to offer in terms of future potential. It says a lot about the quality of the race that one could say TOP OFFER isn’t definitely the most promising horse in the field, but he deserves another chance to atone for his failed Guineas tilt on faster ground. Cogito, Tales Of Grimm and Irish History all deserve respect but EASTERN SUN could easily be a solid each/way bet, with his Craven third looking like good form in this context. Those who want a back to lay in running could do much worse than look at Stipulate, who was clearly going best in the Fielden and could contract massively in running from 18/1 ((17 on Betfair at this time of writing).