Tote Ten To Follow 2012-13

Many people have their traditional moments to start the jumps season, but this year’s Tote Ten To Follow is as good a sign as any that the larger obstacles are back in our life and that gives a fine opportunity to ignite some hopes for the season ahead. With the removal of two handicaps as bonus races and the tote bonus/win dividend counting for double with the addition of a ‘star horse’, there’s a whole new dimension to gaining a rackload of points from just one horse, especially in bonus races such as the national.

As noted by James Hill in the Racing Post the top 5 horses in last year’s competition all had RPR’s of at least 167 beforehand, and with the removal of two handicaps from the bonus races, quality counts more than ever before. In terms of trying to score as many points as possible, one would want to have horses with strong chances of winning all of the following events; The Paddy Power, Hennessy, International Hurdle, King George, Irish Champion Hurdle, Irish Hennessy, all Championship events at Cheltenham (including the Ryanair and Supreme Novices), the Aintree Hurdle and then the Grand National.

The first thing to get sorted would be the two early bonus races. Grands Crus might be too short for yours truly to back in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but there’s no doubting that the test will suit him far more than it did Long Run, and he’s probably the better jumper of the two at this time in their careers, so he should take all the beating. Long term, he’s more than capable of taking a big hand in the King George based on his Feltham win (in a time that was faster than Kauto’s fifth King George) and if his trainer has the foresight, he may well go for the Ryanair if David Pipe believes that he won’t stay the extended 3m2f. In any case, he has the potential for major points dividends before the turn of the year.

The Gold Cup picture has never been more exciting and open, and RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth looks to have as good a chance as any. Nicky Henderson’s charge is 4 from 4 around Cheltenham, will relish the extra distance of the Gold Cup compared to the RSA, and crucially could go to the Hennessy, where he would have to be one of the favourites despite the flatter track not playing to his strengths, although the all-out gallop of the race should help bring his proficient jumping and sometimes limitless stamina into play.

Considering that the International, Champion and Aintree Hurdles are all bonus races, at least one top class 2m hurdle is needed and I can’t think of a better horse to gain points in this division than Zarkandar, who was unlucky to be so far back when fifth in the Champion Hurdle last year, but proved his class when landing the what was known as the Totesport Trophy last year on his seasonal debut and his Elite Hurdle win off a gallop that would not have suited at all was a serious notice of how good he could be this year . Paul Nicholls has already had the International pencilled in for him at an early stage, so it’s clear that he should improve for the run and take a significant amount of beating on the New Course that suits him best, while his price for the Champion Hurdle should be decent too – it’s already well know how highly we think of him here.

For safety, and a winning chance at the Irish Champion Hurdle in January, Hurricane Fly gets the second vote of the 2 milers. He was disappointing in the Champion Hurdle, but there’s a general feeling that he wasn’t at his best that day, and if that’s true then he’s got to be a major contender, while a fuller campaign this around he can rack up the points before the big day, albeit at prohibitive prices.

Big Bucks has scored 135, 110, 120 and 127 for the last 4 years and must go in once again, while the same can be said of Sprinter Sacre, who could well go unbeaten – giving us ‘bankers’ in two of the 4 Cheltenham Championship events.

Considering that the Arkle is a bonus race now, at least one novice chaser is needed and while you won’t get any prizes for originality with Simonsig, if he takes to jumping then he’s got to be right there and even though the likes of Overturn, Captain Conan and Oscars well to name but three could offer stiff opposition, he looked a truly special horse when romping last year’s Neptune and would hopefully have a fairly full chasing campaign beforehand.

With all of the bonus races hopefully covered (barring the Grand National), it’s time to set about finding a few more winners and adding ammunition to our charge. Sizing Europe is going to be 11 next year but he’s arguably never looked so good in winning his last two and is sent to the King George, would be a real contender on the good ground he actually craves over three miles (he stays it on good ground).

Boston Bob was only beaten on one occasion last year over hurdles but chasing was always going to be the name of the game for Willie Mullins’s charge, who’s attitude is just what’s needed to rack up points before taking in the RSA Chase at the Festival next year. With a love for heavy ground and the attitude needed to go on good, he’s a must have.  

Considering the sheer amount of points on offer for the totedividend in the National (the odds will always be larger), it was tempting to put in Willie Mullins’s On Our Own as a star horse, but the lack of pointscoring beforehand and the potential for things to go wrong during the great race would lead us to go for one more top class sort, namely Sir Des Champs, who should rack up the points in Ireland before a Gold Cup tilt here.