Breeders' Cup 2012 - Filly And Mare Turf

10.48 Santa Anita

Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £774,194

Advice: 4 pts win The Fugue (2/1 general), 1 pt win Nahrain (13/2 general)

Star Billing: Won weak Matriarch Stakes at the backend of last year and not won since, although her second in the Clement L.Hirsch was an encouraging effort; Does have speed to use, but classic isn’t in the same league and others preffered.

Zagora: Broke the course record when winning Grade 2 over an extended mile at Saratoga, and might not have been suited by yielding ground in the Flower Bowl last time; That said, Nahrain caught her with ease late on and hard to fancy too strongly for all pace might end up helping her.

Stormy Lucy: Had no answer to Marketing Mix latest despite getting 5lbs in weight last time and yet to win in graded company or over the trip; Passed over.

The Fugue: Only won the one maiden at 2 but instantly confirmed herself to be of the highest class with running on Guineas fourth and easy Musidora win at the beginning of this year; Desperately unlucky not to win Oaks and soft ground no use to her just 20 days after that effort, but proved she’s amongst best in Europe when coasting home at Goodwood to win the Nassau off slow pace, with much the same thing being expected here; Las gap defeat to Shareta in the shadows the the post no disgrace and the one to beat here, having been rested for this since August.

Lady Of Shamrock: Been transformed by moving to the John Sadler barn, winning 5 of her 6 turf starts for this yard; Even more notably, 3-3 here and gets her ground too with stall 6 not expected to be a problem at all.

Up:  Won couple of Irish Group races this season (Group 3 and 2) but exposed at the top level on numerous occasions, notably when sixth over a mile last time and when last of four in pretty Polly Stakes; Needs more.

Nahrain: Remarkable season last year, 4 straight wins being capped off with Group 1 win in Prix L’Opera and then close second in this race; Not as good this year but worked her way back into form and latest Grade 1 win over Zagora much easier than it looked; Can go well again and slow pace not trouble to her; One of strongest European challengers.

Marketing Mix: Fairly strong challenge for this from home team, but this one looks to be the best of them, as she should have won 8 of her 10 turf starts but for getting no run behind I’m A Dreamer in Beverly D; Had the race set up for her latest

Ridasiyna: Underlined herself as top class when bouncing back from Deauville disappointment in spectacular style when romping away with the Prix L’Opera at Longchamp latest; Impressive there but benefited from clever placement more than anything (runner up went too soon, everything else too far back to make the ground) and slightly worry about how much daylight she saw when second at Deauville before that (strong pace that day, won’t be the same situation this time around); Good enough but this test might not suit so much.

I’m A Dreamer: Gained a deserved win in the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes two starts back (just desserts for her strong efforts in Europe) and unlucky in the Flower Bowl last time out; Behind a few of the Europeans on form but if in the right place at the right time, has to be taken seriously.

In Lingerie: First actual start on the turf for dirt bred filly who has Grade 1 winning form on Polytrack, notably when winning the Spinster Stakes despite a poor run last time at Keenland; Not impossible to see her going well off the front but stall 12 not ideal.

VERDICT: The Europeans have won only 5 from 13 editions of this race but with clearer runs at Churchill Downs the last twice that could well be the last three on the bounce for the Europeans and the travelling party is an exceptionally strong one. This year’s race could well be a slowly run one, which would give the emphasis to those with speed or a turn of foot. THE FUGUE’s one Group 1 win – which came in a hack canter – this in the Group 1 Nassau came in a race so slowly run that former Falmouth winner and rank outsider Timepeice took a clear second, but that does no testament to her class and performance this year and having been targeted at this race since August, she should be hard to beat on her favoured firm ground for a trainer who has an extraordinary record here. Ridasiyna's Opera win is very strong form but that came on heavy ground with an easy target in Izzi Top and this will be completely different, while she’s only had 26 days break and a better saver might be NAHRAIN, who had been woefully disappointing before her Flower Bowl win, where she chased down Zagora in the nick of time with relative ease at Belmont. A close second in this last year, she should be thereabouts again if everything drops right for her, while of the Americans Marketing Mix makes most appeal; Nothing can be discounted if getting an easy lead.