Breeders' Cup 2012 - Juvenile Sprint

8.06 Santa Anita

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint (Dirt) (2YO only)

Winner $319,401

Advice: 2 pts win Merit Man (4/5 general), 1 pt Sweet Shirley Mae without Merit Man (3/1 Hills)

Hightail: Never had the pace to challenge properly in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, so hard to see her going the pace to be successful here either; Look elsewhere.

Ceiling Kitty: Rapid progression through midsummer saw her cap off fine hat trick when beating Hoyam in Queen Mary at Royal Ascot; Done OK since, running fourth in Flying Childers under a penalty and then seventh in slightly classier Cheveley Park since; Queen Mary Stakes third Shumoos came to be second in this last year and there is some hope for handling dirt in pedigree; Interesting.

Merit Man: Made to work very hard to win Del Mar 5f allowance on the Polytrack first time out but deeply impressive when thrashing South Floyd in ‘Listed’ race over course and distance last month; Engaged in three way battle for lead and won easily there but drew right away for the success so has the pace and should have the stamina, so of great interest here.

South Floyd: Made all and never looked like being caught on debut at Fairplex Park Racecourse, but really well beaten by Merit Man after duelling for the lead in receipt of 3lbs over C&D; Hard to fancy.

Hazardous: Run in cheap claiming races on all three occasions, impressive winner of two of them (namely when beating 5 rivals by 13 lengths latest) but this a step above.

Sweet Shirley Mae: Made ridiculous amount of ground to come creditable second in Spinaway at Saratoga, coming from 15 lengths back to be clear second; Form amongst the best (if not the best here) but worry about distance here; One for in running value of making the break.

VERDICT: A weak race for the card, and one which has gotten even weaker with the withdrawal of Super Ninety Nine, leaving the door well open for MERIT MAN to get favourite backers off to a good start. Sweet Shirley Mae has the form but the worry is that she’ll miss the break, although if she’s able to go the pace she’ll be a strong late threat and is worth looking at in running, and Ceiling Kitty deserves respect although the surface is a worry.